I wrote the Fantasy Index Weekly style previews during the week, so most have a pretty good idea of what I'm expecting from these games. But I'm wrong sometimes, and frankly have not done a stellar job with these playoff games (although would look a lot better but for that miracle play against the Saints last week). Would be sitting in the catbird's seat if Brees, Kamara and Thomas were still playing.
But this is the playoffs we have, and I suppose it shouldn't be terribly shocking that three of the top four seeds -- the teams that only had to win one home game to make it to the conference championships -- are indeed playing tomorrow night. The lone upstart is the Jaguars, but since they have a great defense and only had to beat 1) Buffalo and 2) a Pittsburgh team that has occasionally let down against lesser opposition to get there, it's not a completely unlikely AFC pairing.
In any case, here's how I think these games will go.
Jaguars at Patriots: Probably best to get this Brady hand injury out of the way. He cut it on a teammate's helmet in practice. It bled. Nothing broken, no ligament damage. It got patched up and he should be out there to his normal level of play (which is to say future Hall of Famer). I would not have any reservations starting Brady. The opponent is tough, and maybe the pass rush gets some hits on him. But New England's offense is all about putting a lot of receivers on the field and scheming one of them open, and dumping it off quickly to a running back if that doesn't work out. Tough to stop for four quarters. I figure eventually the short passing game will produce a couple of touchdowns, to Gronkowski or Lewis or White, and New England will get its 23-27 points and that will be enough.
Rex Burkhead should return for this one, but I think Dion Lewis will be the main runner and James White will be the main passing downs back. I'm not sure Mike Gillislee will be active; if he is he won't necessarily get on the field. An insurance policy; they would be fine using Brandon Bolden at the 2-yard line if needed. Maybe you try Lewis if you're behind in some sort of playoff competition and need to make up ground with a starter other teams don't have.
Leonard Fournette is key, of course. If he can pick up some big gainers and score early, Jacksonville can make a game of it. But that doesn't tend to happen much against New England in these kinds of games. They shut down Derrick Henry last week, and he'd been running really well. I'm pretty sure they'll concentrate on Fournette and take their chances with Blake Bortles passing it. I'm not going to sit here and predict a bunch of turnovers, because that's not what happened with Bortles in either of his first two playoff games. But he was fortunate to avoid a couple of turnovers against Buffalo, and here the pressure and difficulty level goes up a notch.
When Jacksonville has to pass it, hard to identify a top receiver. I guess Marqise Lee, although Dede Westbrook is the other dynamic talent. But they're rotating four different guys, and New England doesn't tend to have big-play coverage breakdowns. In any case, I'm thinking New England wins this game by at least a touchdown and pretty much controls things. New England 27, Jacksonville 17. Would love to be wrong.
Minnesota at Philadelphia: Hopefully last week's Atlanta game reminded people that the Eagles also have a pretty good defense. At home, they allowed 12 TD passes in nine games (including last week) They didn't allow a rushing score at all. So Minnesota will definitely have problems running the ball, and although Philly was ranked just 18th against the pass, they did a nice job in most games along the way. Some good games by Kirk Cousins and Eli Manning here and there, but generally the Eagles shut opponents down. Not as good as Minnesota, but a tough group.
Philadelphia's ground game also doesn't look great. They'll likely use a committee (I'm not entirely sure why LeGarrette Blount is involved, but they haven't consulted me). Jay Ajayi will be the main runner, but tough to run on Minnesota. Or pass.
Ultimately I think both teams will need to pass more than run, mostly play things fairly conservative, punt and play defense. Zach Ertz, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs will probably be the best receivers; I'm less willing to count on Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. We're talking about really good defenses (and a really good secondary in the case of Minnesota) that just doesn't give up a lot to opposing passing games. Drew Brees wore it down by the end of last week's game, but he struggled for most of it, and Nick Foles ain't Brees.
I'm going to call it Minnesota 20, Philadelphia 16.
Enjoy the games.