Saquon Barkley is just about certain to be the first running back drafted next month, probably with a top-10 pick. Sometimes that running back goes on to be the best running back in the draft class, sometimes he doesn't. Which has been more likely in recent years?
Back in 2007, that first running back drafted was Adrian Peterson, and he did indeed wind up as the best. (Although the next one drafted, Marshawn Lynch, had a pretty nice career, too.) There have been 10 drafts since. I'm listing the top 5 running backs selected in each of those drafts below, with the best of them (and there's some subjectivity here) listed in bold.
FIRST FIVE RUNNING BACKS DRAFTED, 2008-2017 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Year | Rd | Pk | Player |
2008 | 1 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. |
2008 | 1 | 13 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. |
2008 | 1 | 22 | Felix Jones, Dall. |
2008 | 1 | 23 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. |
2008 | 1 | 24 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. |
2009 | 1 | 12 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. |
2009 | 1 | 27 | Donald Brown, Ind. |
2009 | 1 | 31 | Beanie Wells, Ariz. |
2009 | 2 | 53 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. |
2009 | 3 | 65 | Shonn Greene, NYJ |
2010 | 1 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. |
2010 | 1 | 12 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. |
2010 | 1 | 30 | Jahvid Best, Det. |
2010 | 2 | 51 | Toby Gerhart, Minn. |
2010 | 2 | 58 | Ben Tate, Hou. |
2011 | 1 | 28 | Mark Ingram, N.O. |
2011 | 2 | 38 | Ryan Williams, Ariz. |
2011 | 2 | 56 | Shane Vereen, N.E. |
2011 | 2 | 57 | Mikel Leshoure, Det. |
2011 | 2 | 62 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. |
2012 | 1 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Clev. |
2012 | 1 | 31 | Doug Martin, T.B. |
2012 | 1 | 32 | David Wilson, NYG |
2012 | 2 | 50 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. |
2012 | 2 | 61 | LaMichael James, S.F. |
2013 | 2 | 37 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. |
2013 | 2 | 48 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. |
2013 | 2 | 58 | Montee Ball, Den. |
2013 | 2 | 61 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. |
2013 | 2 | 62 | Christine Michael, Sea. |
2014 | 2 | 54 | Bishop Sankey, Tenn. |
2014 | 2 | 55 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. |
2014 | 2 | 57 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. |
2014 | 3 | 69 | Charles Sims, T.B. |
2014 | 3 | 75 | Tre Mason, St.L. |
2015 | 1 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. |
2015 | 1 | 15 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. |
2015 | 2 | 36 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. |
2015 | 2 | 54 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. |
2015 | 3 | 73 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. |
2016 | 1 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. |
2016 | 2 | 45 | Derrick Henry, Tenn. |
2016 | 3 | 73 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. |
2016 | 3 | 90 | C.J. Prosise, Sea. |
2016 | 4 | 119 | Tyler Ervin, Hou. |
2017 | 1 | 4 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. |
2017 | 1 | 8 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. |
2017 | 2 | 41 | Dalvin Cook, Minn. |
2017 | 2 | 48 | Joe Mixon, Cin. |
2017 | 3 | 67 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. |
By my count, three times out of 10 the best running back of the first five drafted was the first one: working backward we've got Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and Mark Ingram. You could make a case for C.J. Spiller, but kind of a tossup with Ryan Mathews; Mathews went over 1,000 yards twice in four seasons with the Chargers, Spiller did it once in his career.
Three times it was definitely one of the next four backs drafted: LeVeon Bell, LeSean McCoy and Chris Johnson. Those guys should have been the first backs drafted in their respective classes.
Three times I'm giving the edge to a back not selected first (Mathews, plus Carlos Hyde and Doug Martin). Those guys haven't been great, but they've been better than the earlier picks.
Then there's last year, and it's definitely too soon to say which back will go on to have the best career. Mixon was the only true disappointment. If it is Fournette (and it might be, though I suspect many would vote for Kamara) it'd be three straight years of the best back being drafted earliest. Maybe Barkley makes it four straight.
Also worth noting it’s a different animal when that first running back is selected in the top 10, like Barkley will be. No comparison to a guy like Bishop Sankey. But for every sure star like Peterson or Elliott, there’s a Richardson or McFadden. But at least the most recent history speaks favorably of Barkley.