Fantasy Index

Factoid

Rookie running backs

Hit/miss rates for 2nd-tier rookies

The running back position made a comeback in the draft this year. Not only Saquon Barkley, but six other running backs were chosen either late in the first round or in the second round. Is there a fantasy star in that group.

Seattle drafted Rashaad Penny with the 27th pick, and New England (the team that never drafts skill guys in the first round) went with Sony Michel with the next-to-last choice in the round.

Three running backs went early in the second: Nick Chubb (Cleveland, 35th), Ronald Jones (Tampa Bay, 38th), Kerryon Johnson (Detroit (43rd). And then Derrius Guice got picked 59th by Washington.

Leaving Barkley out of the discussion – he’s a different class of prospect – all six of these backs could potentially be good, but none of them are guaranteed to be the stat leader on their own teams. They’re making the step up to pro ball, and their not the can’t-miss guys like what you see at the top of the draft.

To get a general lay of the land, which could help some in setting general expectations, see the chart below. It shows other running backs in this century not chosen with top-20 picks, but at least chosen in the top 60 – guys who are good and coveted, but not the can’t-miss prospects like Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush and whatnot.

I’ve listed numbers next to each guy, but those aren’t his rookie numbers. They are the numbers of the best fantasy season of his career. (So for right now, I’m looking more at long-term potential rather than gauge how these guys might fare this year.)

There are 57 running backs who meet the requirements (chosen in the top 60 but not the top 20). Of this group, 19 backs (exactly a third) at some point in their career finished a season with top-10 numbers. That’s standard scoring – 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 run/rec yards.

Thirty of these 57 (over half) never had a top-20 season. Well, so far. Some of the guys here are still playing. I would expect Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook and maybe Derrick Henry will have top-20 seasons. And I’m not ruling out a comeback by Tatum Bell.

If form holds with these current six, two of them at some point will post top-10 numbers. But probably half of them will never make it into the top 20.

Of the six, I sure liked the way Guice played at Louisiana State when he was healthy. He went over 250 yards three times in the last two games, and on a lot of his carries in those games, he looked like he might be a better runner than even Barkley – explosive, violent runner who created a lot of those yards on his own.

BEST SEASONS BY SECOND-TIER RUNNING BACKS
YearPkPlayerRunRecTotalTDRk
200824Chris Johnson, Tenn.2,0065032,509161
200855Ray Rice, Balt.1,3647042,068151
200627DeAngelo Williams, Car.1,5151211,636201
200327Larry Johnson, K.C.1,7503432,093212
201348LeVeon Bell, Pitt.1,3618542,215112
200953LeSean McCoy, Phil.1,3093151,624202
200424Steven Jackson, St.L.1,5288062,334163
200660Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.1,3913741,765163
200844Matt Forte, Chi.1,3395941,933123
201231Doug Martin, T.B.1,4544721,926123
200251Clinton Portis, Den.1,5083641,872174
200630Joseph Addai, Ind.1,0723641,436154
200123Deuce McAllister, N.O.1,3883521,740166
201128Mark Ingram, N.O.1,1244161,540126
200149LaMont Jordan, NYJ1,0255631,588117
200823Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.1,2731671,440137
200158Travis Henry, Buff.1,4383091,747148
200323Willis McGahee, Buff.1,1281691,297139
201455Jeremy Hill, Cin.1,1242151,339910
200256Ladell Betts, Wash.1,1544451,599511
201457Carlos Hyde, S.F.9383501,288811
200138Anthony Thomas, Chi.1,1831781,361713
200127Michael Bennett, Minn.1,2963511,647617
200931Beanie Wells, Ariz.1,047521,0991017
201337Giovani Bernard, Cin.6955141,209817
200645LenDale White, Tenn.773167891519
201157Mikel Leshoure, Det.7982141,012920
200443Julius Jones, Dall.9932181,211521
200441Tatum Bell, Den.9211041,025822
200430Kevin Jones, Det.6895201,209823
201030Jahvid Best, Det.5554871,042623
200234DeShaun Foster, Car.8793721,251324
200822Felix Jones, Dall.8004501,250226
201645Derrick Henry, Tenn.744136880626
201058Ben Tate, Hou.942981,040428
201536T.J. Yeldon, Jac.7402791,019328
200621Laurence Maroney, N.E.75799856929
200927Donald Brown, Ind.537214751829
201156Shane Vereen, N.E.391447838529
201748Joe Mixon, Cin.626287913432
200254Maurice Morris, Sea.628213841533
200031Trung Canidate, St.L.441154595635
201051Toby Gerhart, Minn.531190721438
201554Ameer Abdullah, Det.552162714539
200455Greg Jones, Jac.57565640441
201358Montee Ball, Den.559145704442
201454Bishop Sankey, Tenn.569133702243
201232David Wilson, NYG35834392645
200426Chris Perry, Cin.279328607246
200544J.J. Arrington, Ariz.370139509255
201741Dalvin Cook, Minn.35490444265
201059Montario Hardesty, Clev.266122388074
200750Chris Henry, Tenn.11953172281
201138Ryan Williams, Ariz.16444208097
201250Isaiah Pead, St.L.2178990---
200554Eric Shelton, Car.236290---
200749Kenny Irons, Cin.0000---

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index