AJ McCarron broke his collarbone last night, and that's probably a season-ender. Put it this way, the Bills won't be holding a spot on the 53-man roster for AJ McCarron. The odds of Josh Allen starting right away have naturally increased; it will be either him or Nathan Peterman.
The smart money says it will be Allen; that's how things generally go with quarterback selected in the top 10 (the first round, really). Patrick Mahomes sitting all last year is the exception. Peterman has actually been fairly impressive this preseason himself, but if he's the starter in Week 1, he'll just be keeping the seat warm.
Allen, however, has completed just 56.3 percent of his passes (18 of 32) in the preseason, an ironic figure since that's exactly the percentage of his passes that he completed at Wyoming last season. That's better than only three of the quarterbacks drafted in the first round this century. Two of the ones who were worse quickly flamed out of the NFL, Jake Locker and Kyle Boller. The third, Michael Vick, had an up-and-down career; fair to say it was his difference-making ability as a runner that drove much of his NFL success.
| COMPLETION PERCENTAGE, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 1ST-RD QBS (2000-) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Com | Att | Pct | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 408 | 564 | 72.3 | 4727 | 37 | 13 |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers, NYG | 348 | 483 | 72.0 | 4491 | 34 | 7 |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 291 | 406 | 71.7 | 4293 | 37 | 6 |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 288 | 404 | 71.3 | 3517 | 37 | 10 |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 303 | 427 | 71.0 | 3970 | 31 | 4 |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 285 | 404 | 70.5 | 4627 | 43 | 6 |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 300 | 429 | 69.9 | 4114 | 37 | 13 |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell, Wash. | 188 | 270 | 69.6 | 2700 | 20 | 7 |
| 2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 342 | 495 | 69.1 | 4486 | 37 | 10 |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 304 | 445 | 68.3 | 4454 | 42 | 4 |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 304 | 447 | 68.0 | 3748 | 30 | 6 |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 263 | 387 | 68.0 | 3397 | 23 | 10 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 232 | 342 | 67.8 | 3129 | 28 | 8 |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 213 | 314 | 67.8 | 2895 | 21 | 5 |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 259 | 382 | 67.8 | 3581 | 25 | 9 |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith, S.F. | 214 | 317 | 67.5 | 2952 | 32 | 4 |
| 2000 | 18 | Chad Pennington, NYJ | 292 | 433 | 67.4 | 4006 | 38 | 12 |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 331 | 491 | 67.4 | 4268 | 30 | 10 |
| 2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 388 | 579 | 67.0 | 4593 | 41 | 17 |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 296 | 443 | 66.8 | 3776 | 28 | 4 |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 209 | 316 | 66.1 | 2566 | 24 | 8 |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 185 | 280 | 66.1 | 2854 | 30 | 7 |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 241 | 366 | 65.8 | 3207 | 34 | 10 |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 283 | 431 | 65.7 | 3815 | 28 | 8 |
| 2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 388 | 591 | 65.7 | 5052 | 41 | 10 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 305 | 467 | 65.3 | 3907 | 25 | 18 |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 212 | 325 | 65.2 | 3036 | 26 | 10 |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr, Hou. | 308 | 476 | 64.7 | 4299 | 42 | 7 |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | 341 | 529 | 64.5 | 4719 | 43 | 13 |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 331 | 521 | 63.5 | 4263 | 23 | 5 |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 301 | 475 | 63.4 | 3186 | 16 | 9 |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 309 | 489 | 63.2 | 3942 | 33 | 10 |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 303 | 480 | 63.1 | 4143 | 26 | 13 |
| 2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 283 | 452 | 62.6 | 3756 | 26 | 10 |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 130 | 208 | 62.5 | 1651 | 17 | 4 |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning, S.D. | 275 | 441 | 62.4 | 3600 | 29 | 10 |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn, Clev. | 289 | 467 | 61.9 | 3426 | 37 | 7 |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 327 | 531 | 61.6 | 3744 | 29 | 15 |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 184 | 299 | 61.5 | 2044 | 20 | 8 |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 235 | 383 | 61.4 | 3459 | 25 | 10 |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman, Buff. | 251 | 422 | 59.5 | 3077 | 33 | 14 |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 388 | 654 | 59.3 | 4507 | 31 | 19 |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 273 | 462 | 59.1 | 3073 | 21 | 9 |
| 2018 | 32 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 254 | 430 | 59.1 | 3660 | 27 | 10 |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 224 | 382 | 58.6 | 2945 | 20 | 8 |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 186 | 322 | 57.8 | 2415 | 23 | 5 |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman, Chi. | 287 | 503 | 57.1 | 3402 | 22 | 17 |
| 2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey, Wash. | 256 | 449 | 57.0 | 2935 | 22 | 13 |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 39 | 69 | 56.5 | 562 | 2 | 0 |
| 2018 | 7 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 152 | 270 | 56.3 | 1812 | 16 | 6 |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 184 | 332 | 55.4 | 2265 | 17 | 9 |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 87 | 161 | 54.0 | 1234 | 8 | 6 |
| 2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 225 | 421 | 53.4 | 2815 | 28 | 10 |
In the table, this year's first-round quarterbacks are in bold. On Allen's behalf, some other sub-60 percent passers have gone on to be pretty successful: Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler and Sam Bradford (injuries aside). And some of the guys near the top quickly flopped (Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel).
Watching Allen play, I think he's going to be better than I anticipated back when he was drafted. There will be some bumps and hiccups along the way, and there's no getting around he's working behind a questionable offensive line with suspect receiving talent. And if LeSean McCoy is suspended, the quarterback could really find himself helming a sinking ship.
But Allen himself looks OK. If his confidence isn't shattered while the team adds talent around him, he could be pretty good. This 2018 quarterback class by and large looks like it's going to be one we're watching for many years to come.
--Andy Richardson