I took an in-depth look at both AFC and NFC Championship games this week, which to be perfectly honest took more time than I expected. The four best teams during the regular season all advanced, and all four are led by top offenses, great coaching minds, franchise passers. Is there anything else to say about these games?
Maybe not much. I wish the NFL would change things up by playing one of these games on Saturday night and one on Sunday night. That'd be cool, right? You'll get people complaining about how some team will have shortened preparation by having to play on Saturday. Boo freaking hoo. I think it'd be pretty neat to have a game tonight and a game tomorrow night, rather than two tomorrow. Maybe one day.
Rams at Saints: I expect New Orleans to win this one, in part because I haven't actually seen the Payton-Brees Saints lose at home in the playoffs, even games they should have (Vikings in 2009....sigh). There's no getting around that Jared Goff and the Rams simply haven't played as well since their Week 11 win over Kansas City. Not as productive on offense, Goff in particular has been off more than on, it's looked like Sean McVay has wanted to take the game off his shoulders rather than put it on them.
With New Orleans being really good against the run this season, though, Goff and the passing game will have to do more. Can they? In the regular season matchup they did, though they also fell behind 35-14 in that one before roaring back.
For the sake of discussion, let's say Goff plays really well. He's a good young quarterback who had some big games during the season, including putting up good numbers in shootouts with Brees, Mahomes, Rodgers. Todd Gurley seems to be healthy, they've got those capable receivers, and maybe they use their tight ends a little more.
But can the Rams slow down the Saints, in New Orleans? Their defense really hasn't slowed any good offense down in a while. Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram; those guys should be able to run. Yes, the Rams have a healthy Aqib Talib, but is he going to shut down Michael Thomas, who they'll move around as much as they need to? Not likely. That might actually be the key to the game, because if they are able to limit Thomas -- 7 catches for 90 yards is "limiting" him these days -- the Saints just have Ted Ginn and TreQuan Smith running deep routes, and maybe Aaron Donald can force Drew Brees to throw it quicker than he wants. There's your upset chance.
I'm going with Saints 34, Rams 31.
Patriots at Kansas City: The weather forecast has moved up to a balmy 26 degrees at kickoff. Not too terrible. It's the Patriots in their 8th straight championship game, which is undeniably impressive, but I do think it's fair to poke holes in them as playing in a division populated by incompetent teams. With nobody else in the division winning even 10-11 games in, like, forever, New England always gets that home game to start the playoffs, so they only need win one or two extra "tough" games at some point during the season to get that bye. But all that just sounds like sour grapes, I realize. Hats off to the Patriots, who have had a dynasty like nobody else in the modern era of the NFL and that probably won't be equaled.
But they have been ordinary in road games, as in 3-4, and they've lost both of their road championship matchups during this eight-year run. So they're mortal, and they're facing a team that played great -- and really great at home -- all season long. Without much pass rush, can they get much pressure on Patrick Mahomes? Can they contain Tyreek Hill (they didn't the last two meetings)? Can they slow down what's been one of the league's best pass rushes?
Personally, I need to decide if I'm picking Kansas City objectively, or because I want them to win. Talk about whether Brady is the greatest NFL player and Bill Belichick the greatest NFL coach is like nails on a chalkboard to me before it even starts. We get this every year pretty much, and the prospect of having two more weeks of it makes me want to throw up in my mouth. So yes, I hope the Patriots lose. I have no qualms admitting. Sorry, New England, most of America feels the same way (and I realize this is catnip to Patriots fans: "Everyone wants us to lose! Let's go stick it to all of them!").
Good and tough as the Patriots are, I believe in Patrick Mahomes. He has a long, long way to go before anyone should call him one of the best or anything, but if you watched him play this season, you saw him do things on the football field that you hadn't seen many (any?) other quarterbacks do. I see him getting time, finding time, or making time to hit some short throws to his running backs and tight end, longer throws to Hill and to a lesser extent Sammy Watkins. I think it's going to be Kansas City 27, New England 24. But would the reverse surprise me? No, I'm afraid not. But that's what I'm going with.
Enjoy the games.