The Packers offense will have some new wrinkles. Matt LaFleur is taking over, and he’ll have some of his own ideas he’ll want to implement.
I don’t know exactly what he has in mind (let’s see who they draft next week) but it’s a safe bet we’ll see more running plays. The Packers last season became just the fifth team in this century to finish with over twice as many plays passing as rushing.
Since 2000, only three teams have passed the ball on a higher percentage of their plays.
Going with a pass-crazy approach doesn’t tend to be a winning formula. Of the 39 teams that have passed on at least 64 percent of their plays since 2000, only four have made the playoffs. Only 6 have finished with winning records.
On chart below, I’ve got the five 2018 teams in bold. I put a black dot next to the winning records to make them stand out more.
| PASSING ON OVER 64 PERCENT OF PLAYS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Record | Pass | Run | Pct |
| 2013 | Atlanta Falcons | 4-12 | 703 | 321 | 68.7% |
| 2006 | Detroit Lions | 3-13 | 659 | 304 | 68.4% |
| 2013 | Cleveland Browns | 4-12 | 730 | 348 | 67.7% |
| 2018 | Green Bay Packers | 6-9-1 | 693 | 333 | 67.5% |
| 2018 | Pittsburgh Steelers | •9-6-1 | 713 | 345 | 67.4% |
| 2005 | Arizona Cardinals | 5-11 | 715 | 360 | 66.5% |
| 2002 | St. Louis Rams | 7-9 | 681 | 343 | 66.5% |
| 2007 | Detroit Lions | 7-9 | 641 | 324 | 66.4% |
| 2011 | Detroit Lions | •10-6 | 702 | 356 | 66.4% |
| 2012 | Detroit Lions | 4-12 | 769 | 391 | 66.3% |
| 2012 | Dallas Cowboys | 8-8 | 694 | 355 | 66.2% |
| 2014 | Oakland Raiders | 3-13 | 657 | 337 | 66.1% |
| 2016 | Baltimore Ravens | 8-8 | 712 | 367 | 66.0% |
| 2008 | Arizona Cardinals | •9-7 | 658 | 340 | 65.9% |
| 2001 | Detroit Lions | 2-14 | 675 | 351 | 65.8% |
| 2015 | Detroit Lions | 7-9 | 676 | 354 | 65.6% |
| 2010 | Arizona Cardinals | 5-11 | 611 | 320 | 65.6% |
| 2012 | Arizona Cardinals | 5-11 | 666 | 352 | 65.4% |
| 2012 | New Orleans Saints | 7-9 | 697 | 370 | 65.3% |
| 2018 | Atlanta Falcons | 7-9 | 659 | 351 | 65.2% |
| 2004 | Oakland Raiders | 5-11 | 612 | 327 | 65.2% |
| 2013 | Miami Dolphins | 8-8 | 652 | 349 | 65.1% |
| 2015 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | 658 | 354 | 65.0% |
| 2010 | Washington | 6-10 | 651 | 351 | 65.0% |
| 2013 | Dallas Cowboys | 8-8 | 621 | 336 | 64.9% |
| 2015 | Miami Dolphins | 6-10 | 633 | 344 | 64.8% |
| 2014 | Chicago Bears | 5-11 | 650 | 355 | 64.7% |
| 2015 | Baltimore Ravens | 5-11 | 700 | 383 | 64.6% |
| 2005 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6-10 | 662 | 365 | 64.5% |
| 2018 | Minnesota Vikings | •8-7-1 | 646 | 357 | 64.4% |
| 2016 | Cleveland Browns | 1-15 | 633 | 350 | 64.4% |
| 2010 | New Orleans Saints | •11-5 | 687 | 380 | 64.4% |
| 2016 | Detroit Lions | •9-7 | 631 | 350 | 64.3% |
| 2015 | San Diego Chargers | 4-12 | 707 | 393 | 64.3% |
| 2000 | San Diego Chargers | 1-15 | 631 | 351 | 64.3% |
| 2011 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-12 | 620 | 346 | 64.2% |
| 2014 | Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | 663 | 372 | 64.1% |
| 2018 | New York Giants | 5-11 | 630 | 354 | 64.0% |
| 2012 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-14 | 636 | 358 | 64.0% |
LaFleur in 2017 was with the Rams. That offense ran more of a run-oriented scheme (ranking in the bottom-10 in percentage of pass plays). And LaFleur was the coordinator in Tennessee last year, with that offense being one of the most run-oriented in the league.
The Packers still have Aaron Rodgers, of course. He won’t be phased out. If you have one of the league’s best passers, you’re going to let him do his thing. But there should be a healthier mix of running plays mixed in this year.
—Ian Allan