.NEW ENGLAND (at Baltimore)
The Patriots are steamrolling everyone. Only one of their eight wins, at Buffalo, was by less than 2 touchdowns. The Ravens should provide a tougher test, in part because ...
... they've got some defensive talent, and in part because they've long given New England a battle. The Patriots have won seven of the last 10 meetings, including four playoff games, but six of them have come by 3, 6, 3, 3, 4 and 7 points. Some chance the Ravens are able to hold New England to just average or only slightly above-average numbers, although we're hesitant to underestimate a team playing as well as the Patriots. ... Tom Brady has come out on the wrong end of games against Baltimore more than most of his other opponents over the years. Including ...
This report is taken from today's Week 9 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 19 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... playoff meetings, he's lost three of his last five against them. But he's tended to put up good numbers anyway, with his worst numbers in the series in a game the Patriots won easily.
| Brady vs. Baltimore, last 5 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Site | Score | Yards | TD |
| 2012 | Balt. | L, 31-30 | 335 | 1 |
| 2012 | N.E. | L, 28-13 | 320 | 1 |
| 2013 | Balt. | W, 41-7 | 172 | 1 |
| 2014 | N.E. | W, 35-31 | 367 | 4 |
| 2016 | N.E. | W, 30-23 | 406 | 3 |
Brady was held to just 1 TD in three of those contests, but was up over 320 passing yards in four of them. Those Ravens teams tended to stuff the run and give up more production through the air, and this team is similar (top-5 in run defense and bottom-10 in pass defense). That didn't hold up in Baltimore's last game (Russell Wilson struggled); Baltimore has added Marcus Peters, and should also get Jimmy Smith back from injury. But this will likely remain a defense a lot better against the run than the pass, while New England is a lot better passing it (9th) than running it (23rd). New England will probably attack through the air, and Brady will finish with above-average yards and probably 2 TDs. He's thrown 13 and snuck in an additional 3 scores, so he's averaging 2 TDs per game. The Ravens have allowed just 7 TD passes, but other than Wilson have faced mostly young or lesser quarterbacks (from Miami, Arizona, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati). The only other Brady-level passer, Patrick Mahomes, threw for 374 yards and 3 TDs. ... Julian Edelman is the most reliable target, and has been putting up his best numbers lately. He's caught at least 7 balls in four straight and gone over 100 yards in two of those, with 3 of his 4 TDs on the season. Next in line are Phillip Dorsett and Mohamed Sanu. Dorsett played nearly every snap against Cleveland while Sanu was out there just over half the time, but that won't necessarily continue, with Sanu now having had a week to acclimate himself. He also saw just one fewer target last week, so it won't be surprising if he finishes with better numbers in a lot of games. Only 7 TD passes thrown against the Ravens, as noted, but 5 have gone to wide receivers. Jakobi Meyers has impressed with his opportunities, but will likely be limited to No. 4 duties, playing no more than a third of the snaps. New England has designated first-rounder N'Keal Harry to return from IR, so they'll start working him in as soon as he's ready, as well. ... The Ravens have struggled against the run in some games, but they're still very tough (2nd), while New England isn't a great rushing team (23rd). Sony Michel has run in 6 TDs, but he's averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and 58 per game. They've involved him more in the passing game than in the past, but he's dropped a pass in each of the last two games; most likely he won't make a big impact there. Against this particular opponent, James White should play a little more. White isn't running it much (under 5 yards in four of five) but has caught 42 passes for 358 yards and a touchdown, so 51 receiving yards per game. He was inches away from a pair of touchdowns against the Jets. Negative for both these players is Rex Burkhead is now healthy, and they'll work him in for some touches. Ravens got run over for 4 TDs in an inexplicable performance against the Browns, but have otherwise allowed 3 TDs on the ground in six games. White, for his receiving potential, looks like the best bet. ... Benjamin Watson caught 61 passes and 4 TDs for the Ravens two years ago, and maybe they'll try to get him a short flip near the goal line. But Watson isn't a big part of the offense, catching 4 passes for 44 yards in his two games with the team. New England has thrown just 1 TD to a tight end this season, while Baltimore has allowed only 1. ... Mike Nugent is out, and Nick Folk is in at kicker. Folk had some good years with the Cowboys and Jets, but most recently made only 6 of 11 field goals attempts with Tampa Bay two years ago. Only three teams have allowed more field goals than Baltimore (15), and the Ravens are allowing over 8 kicking points per game. Nothing wrong with the matchup or the unbeaten team that should get him plenty of opportunities, but that was also the case with Nugent, who lasted only four games. As long as he keeps the job, though, he should be a top-10 kicker. ... Reckless is the fantasy coach that sits down the Patriot Defense, on a roll like one seldom seen in the NFL. It leads the league in sacks (31), interceptions (19) and defensive and special teams touchdowns (6) -- roughly twice as many as every other team in the latter two categories. The matchups have been very favorable, but they're playing with a ton of confidence, and these things tend to snowball -- Chicago last year, Jacksonville the year before. Here they're facing a second-year quarterback who's been slightly better than average in terms of sacks (17 in seven games) and interceptions (5). Just an average type matchup, but we're wary of underestimating New England.