Kansas City
Kansas City's offense wasn't as dynamic as expected in the regular season. It scored 4 TDs in each of its first three games, but it scored more than 3 in only one of its final 13 games -- at home against ...

... a lesser Oakland defense. Kansas City's offense scored only 34 touchdowns in those final 13 games (2.6 per week). But it has been remarkably good over the years when given an extra week to prepare. And here, Kansas City is working against a defense that's been pretty awful. Only four teams in the regular season allowed more yards than Houston. The Texans allowed at least 3 TDs in five of their last seven games of the regular season. ... Patrick Mahomes was oddly ordinary at the end of the regular season. He averaged only 234 passing yards in his last six games, ...

This report is taken from today's Week 19 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly (for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs). The newsletter includes our player rankings for the wildcard games, plus 7 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.

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... with just 8 TDs -- 1 TD pass in two thirds of those games. That's hard to explain, but there's a good chance they'll get things fixed this week. He remains a transcendent talent, and this is definitely a lesser defense he's facing. The Texans allowed 281 passing yards per game in the regular season -- 4th-most in the league. With Kansas City also having had an extra week to prepare, there's a good chance Mahomes slices and dices this group. That's how things started off in the Week 6 meeting, when Mahomes passed for 232 yards and 2 TDs in the first half. He was not productive in the second half, completing only 6 of 12 for 41 yards, with a touchdown, but that can be accounted for. Mahomes was playing with an ankle injury, and Kansas City had defensive problems that have now been fixed. Unable to get Houston off the field in the earlier game, Mahomes got only three possessions in the second half, and two of them were three-and-outs. Healthier and sharper this time around, Kansas City is far more likely to keep things rolling, with Mahomes going for 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns. Houston allowed 33 TD passes in the regular season, with seven quarterbacks (just short of half of their opponents) throwing at least 3 TD passes. Josh Allen is no Mahomes, and he threw for 264 yards against this defense last week. ... It looks like an above-average situation for the running game. Houston has tended to play top-10 run defense in recent years, but it slipped to 25th this year. It has J.J. Watt coming back, but he's less than 100 percent, and the run defense wasn't anything special last week against Buffalo, with Devin Singletary popping some runs. The Texans allowed 9 rushing touchdowns in their final seven regular-season games. Kansas City finished the regular season with a bottom-10 rushing attack, but it's been coming on some. It had a season-high 162 rushing yards in its last game. KC scored 9 rushing touchdowns in its last six games. The team will use a committee backfield, but Damien Williams seems to be the guy they've settled on as their No. 1 option. He playing a lot better now than he was at the beginning of the season. Williams averaged fewer than 2.6 yards per carry in four of his first five games. Nowadays, he's playing more like the back who sparked the offense late last year. He got hurt early in the Mexico City game, but his last four other games have been his four best rushing games of the season.

Houston has allowed over 160 rushing yards in four recent games against teams with very good running games -- Titans twice, Ravens, Bills. Kansas City doesn't run the ball like those teams. But the Texans also gave up 175 and 145 rushing yards in late-season games against the Colts and Patriots. Seems reasonable that Williams can run for 60-70 yards, and he'll also be a factor catching passes. In the regular season, Kansas City's tailbacks combined to catch 87 passes for 626 yards and 4 TDs. That's 39 yards per week, and Williams is their main player at the position, making it look pretty likely that he'll go for at least 25-30 receiving yards. Houston allowed 8 TD passes to running backs in the regular season, tying for most in the league. ... Kansas City likely will work in other backs. LeSean McCoy probably will be their 2nd-busiest back. Andy Reid has made a couple of comments about wanting to "save him." McCoy was their most productive back in the earlier Houston game, carrying 8 times for 44 yards. But it would be quite a jump for McCoy to suddenly take on a big role. He hardly played in the second half of the season -- a healthy scratch in three of those games. And he wasn't all that effective when he did play, averaging more than 3.0 yards per carry in only two of his last five appearances. With his experience, we'll rank him ahead of Darwin Thompson, but unlikely that either of these backs is asked to handle the ball more than a half-dozen times. ... Tyreek Hill is as likely as anyone to be the most productive wide receiver of the week. He's got the speed to score from anywhere on the field, and he's working against a secondary that's had a lot of breakdowns. Hill left the Mexico City game early with a hamstring injury, but he's caught 56 passes for 844 yards and 7 TDs in his last 10 other games -- 84 yards per week. They didn't use him as much as a runner this year (8 for 23) but that could be dusted off now that the higher stakes games are underway. Hill ran for 4 TDs in his first three seasons. In the earlier Houston game, it was Hill's first week back after suffering a shoulder injury in the opener. He caught only half of the 10 passes thrown his way but finished with 80 yards and a pair of touchdowns. ... We have no interest in Sammy Watkins. They just haven't been able to get him going. Watkins looked like a possible top-10 receiver back in Week 1, when he caught 9 passes for 198 yards and 3 TDs at Jacksonville, but those are the only touchdowns he's scored all year. He's averaged only 37 yards in his last 13 other games. Since Mahomes returned from his knee injury, in seven games he's gone only 17 of 34 when passing for Watkins, for 200 yards. ... Mecole Hardman is raw and unpolished; he began as a defensive back at Georgia and is only the 4th receiver here in terms of playing time. But he's more likely than either Watkins or Demarcus Robinson to hit on a long touchdown. Hardman has elite speed, and they've made an effort to draw up plays to get him the ball deep. Hardman has seven catches that have gone for 30-plus yards, and he's caught 6 TDs. He's carried the ball 4 times on end-arounds (albeit for just 17 yards) and he might be the league's best kick returner. Hardman scored on a kickoff return in Week 17, and he's had multiple other returns this year that looked like they might go the distance. He's scored as many touchdowns as Watkins and Robinson combined. Since Mahomes returned from injury, Hardman has averaged 23 receiving yards per game -- 5 less than Watkins and 5 more than Robinson. Robinson in the regular season caught 6 more passes than Hardman but finished with 89 fewer yards. He doesn't run as many downfield routes. Since a big game at Oakland in Week 2, Robinson has averaged only 10.6 yards per catch; Hardman is averaging 20.7 per catch. Robinson has caught 4 TDs, but three of them came when Hill was hurt early in the year. While Robinson will play more, we're ranking Hardman higher. ... Travis Kelce should lead the team in catches. He caught 97 balls in the regular season -- about a catch more per game than Tyreek Hill. But he doesn't have the same ability to get downfield for chunk plays. Nor does he score quite as much. Kelce finished the regular season with 1,229 yards and 5 TDs, averaging 77 yards per game. He caught 4 passes for 58 yards in the earlier Houston game. The Texans haven't faced a lot of elite tight ends; in our eyes, they've played only two Kelce-type guys. But neither of those players finished with giant numbers or scored. Austin Hooper caught 6 passes for 56 yards; Darren Waller caught 2 passes for 11 yards (on 8 targets). ... Kansas City's offense hasn't been as good, and that's benefitted Harrison Butker. He kicked 20 fewer extra points in the regular season, but with 10 more field goals. That helped him finish with a league-leading 147 kicking points. With the matchup this week, the probability of more extra points goes up. Houston in the regular season allowed twice as many PATs (40) as field goals (20). When KC lost 31-24 against Houston earlier in the season, Butker finished with a modest 6 points (3 PATs, 1 field goal and a missed 50-yarder). ... The Kansas City Defense grades out as the best in multiple areas. Certainly special teams, where it has the only returner who took a kick back for a touchdown in the regular season. Mecole Hardman returned a kickoff for a touchdown in his last game, and he had multiple other returns where that looked close to happening -- he was named to the Pro Bowl. The numbers suggest Kansas City will have the most productive pass rush. The Vikings and 49ers had slightly more sacks in the regular season, but Kansas City has the far better matchup in that regard -- Houston allowed 49 sacks in the regular season, and Deshaun Watson went down 7 times last week in a home game. Houston didn't allow any sacks in the earlier meeting, but this defense is playing better now and no doubt will show up with some new wrinkles. For interceptions, this also looks like the best matchup of the week. Of the eight quarterbacks starting this week, six of them have done a remarkably good job of not throwing interceptions. The Texans have at least thrown 14, making for a combined 30 in 32 games with Kansas City's defense -- that ties for the most (and with the other, you've got an underdog playing on the road). None of the other six matchups feature more than 23 interceptions in 32 games. When Houston played at Kansas City in Week 6, Watson threw 2 interceptions. The matchup isn't as good for other takeaways. Kansas City has recovered only 7 fumbles, while Houston has lost only 8, making for the lowest total of the week. But that's the most luck-driven of the defensive categories.