Yesterday we looked at the Packers; today its the 49ers. San Francisco no doubt prefers facing Green Bay over a third matchup with Seattle. The 49ers were just a replay review from being swept by the Seahawks, while they dominated the Packers 37-8 in Week 12. But there are no cupcakes at this point in the season.

Green Bay has some of the league’s best players at their positions at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, and their defense is no slouch. The Packers were just 18th in yards allowed during the season, but only eight teams allowed fewer points. San Francisco should win, but its offense won’t necessarily have a huge game. We’re putting them down for 3 touchdowns – above-average production, most likely, in what we view as a 27-21 type of win.

RUNNING BACKS

The Packers had a bottom-10 run defense during the season (23rd), allowing 120 yards per game and 15 touchdowns (only seven teams allowed more). San Francisco, meanwhile, ranked 2nd in rushing, at 144 yards per game, with a league-high 23 touchdowns. Considering their quarterback contributed virtually none of that, that’s even more impressive. There’s some risk, however, in ranking these players. While Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones and even Damien Williams look pretty certain to be featured, San Francisco will likely use three running backs, with multiple candidates to be featured. Tevin Coleman was the big free agent signing, the starter for most of the season, and the big performer in the playoff win over Minnesota: 22 carries for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’d look like a slam-dunk for top production had he not put in just cameo appearances in the final five games, averaging just 22 yards (19 run, 3 rec) with no touchdowns. Raheem Mostert, in contrast, was a workhorse, averaging 90 yards (76 run, 14 rec) in those same five games, with 7 touchdowns; at least one score in all of those contests. After the game, Kyle Shanahan said the plan had been for Mostert to again get most of the carries, but a calf cramp led to Coleman getting more work, and taking advantage. Given that, we’re figuring Mostert should return to lead-back status, but Coleman was impressive enough last week that it will be more of a one-two punch than it was down the stretch. Matt Breida looks like the clear No. 3; he was also the least effective last week (8 for 17; the other two were up 4.8 yards per attempt). With the way this team runs the ball and the matchup, both Coleman and Mostert have value, but the committee and uncertain division of labor makes them a little riskier than the week’s other starters. The Week 12 meeting, actually, was where Mostert started emerging in this backfield, with his 6 carries going for 45 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown. Coleman carried 11 times for just 39 yards, though he also scored. None of these backs had big roles as receivers down the stretch (a combined 34 yards for the trio the last three games), which continued against the Vikings. None were even targeted last week.

QUARTERBACK

Jimmy Garoppolo had one of his better statistical games in the earlier meeting (253 yards and 2 TDs), though he attempted just 20 passes; 103 yards came on a pair of long touchdowns, one a medium-length throw that Deebo Samuel took the distance, and another on a blown coverage against George Kittle, who got wide open 20 yards behind the defense. Those plays count, of course, but it wasn’t a pass-heavy approach, and that was the case for most of the season. He averaged 249 passing yards, with four 300-yard performances: the wild shootout with New Orleans, and then three against really bad pass defenses (Cincinnati, and Arizona twice). The Packers ranked 15th, allowing 251 yards per game, so similar to Garoppolo’s output. This defense allowed just 19 touchdown passes during the season (277 yards and 1 TD by Russell Wilson last week), only slightly more than on runs (15, and 2 more last week). So it’s an average type pass defense, and one that tends to be easier to run against near the end zone. The pass rush that gave Garoppolo problems in Week 12 (3 sacks despite him only attempting 20 throws), and was all over Russell Wilson last week (5 sacks). Best not to overrate that – Garoppolo has a better line and vastly superior ground game on his side – but unlikely San Francisco comes out looking to throw the ball all over the yard. We’re thinking below-average numbers, say 230 passing yards and 1-2 touchdowns (just 1 more likely). Similar to our expectations for Rodgers, and in between the two AFC quarterbacks. Garoppolo’s not a runner (under 4 yards per game, and only 1 TD all season).

RECEIVERS

George Kittle was the best receiver for either team in the earlier meeting, catching all 6 passes thrown his way for 129 yards, including a 61-yard touchdown. That was the only touchdown scored by a tight end against this defense in the last eight games (nine including last week), but we have little interest in ranking Kittle outside the top 2 at the position, and he’s San Francisco’s best bet for targets and catches, as well. Kittle’s also an excellent blocker in the run game, so when the team is having success on the ground he doesn’t tend to be as involved as a receiver. Just 3 catches for 16 yards last week, on 5 targets.

Deebo Samuel was the best wide receiver the second half of the season, averaging 72 yards per game, with 4 touchdowns. That includes the 42-yards score in the earlier meeting, though he caught only one other pass. Just 42 yards for Samuel last week, though he led the team with 6 targets. Green Bay allowed a modest 12 touchdowns to wide receivers in its 17 games, so scoring potential isn’t great. There’s also the fact that Kendrick Bourne was a much bigger part of the red-zone offense the second half of the season. He caught 4 touchdowns in the last eight games, plus another one last week. Not as involved between the 20s, though (25 yards per game). Emmanuel Sanders will play the most snaps at the position, but other than a monster game against New Orleans (157 yards and 2 TDs), he was quiet. Including last week he’s averaged just 30 yards in his other most recent eight games, with no touchdowns. Makes sense to rank him 2nd at the position for yards, but 3rd for touchdowns. Richie James was the only other wideout to step on the field last week (just 3 offensive snaps, and he wasn’t targeted).

KICKER/DEFENSE

San Francisco averaged 8.7 kicking points during the season, and Robbie Gould was even better than that the last month (40 points in his last four games, plus 9 more last week). Green Bay allowed nearly as many field goals (27) as extra points (28) which worked out to nearly 7 kicking points per game.

The 49ers Defense sacked Aaron Rodgers 5 times in Week 12, forcing a fumble on one of them (setting up a short touchdown). It averaged 3 sacks per game (48) during the season, then added 6 more and 2 takeaways last week. It has Dee Ford back, strengthening that pass rush. Aaron Rodgers was sacked 36 times during the season, slightly better than average, but we're anticipating at least 3 sacks here. Takeaways don't look as promising, with Rodgers throwing just 4 interceptions and losing 4 fumbles during the season. San Francisco was slightly below-average in interceptions (12) but only three teams had more fumble recoveries (15). Richie James has a flicker of potential on returns, with an 81-yard kick return during the season, although just one punt return over 20 yards. Green Bay didn't allow any defensive or special teams touchdowns.

Player projections are below; at the end of the week, after all four teams have been analyzed, we'll see how the rankings shake out.

--Andy Richardson