The last couple of days we looked at the NFC Championship game; now the AFC side. First up the Tennessee Titans, who have pulled off impressive upsets two weeks in a row. Do they have one more upset in their bag of tricks?

OVERVIEW

These teams met in Tennessee in Week 10, a 35-32 Titans win. They combined for over 900 yards of offense and 7 touchdowns in a back-and-forth slugfest, with stars from both sides putting up big numbers. They also met in the playoffs after the 2017 season, a 22-21 upset win for the Titans in Kansas City. Tennessee overcame a 21-3 halftime deficit that day, coming back behind Derrick Henry’s 156 yards on the ground. … Kansas City is favored by 7.5, with an over-under of 52.5, suggesting a 30-23 type of game. … It should be sunny and cold on Sunday afternoon, with temperatures in the mid-20s, no rain expected. Winds of just 10 mph; shouldn’t be a problem for passing games or kickers.

No one should doubt the ability of Tennessee to win this game. They’ve pulled off back-to-back playoff upsets against favored opponents (heavily favored, in the case of Baltimore). Kansas City has been a home playoff favorite plenty of times before, but hasn’t been to a Super Bowl since 1970 – half a century. More significantly, their defense isn’t as good as the previous teams Tennessee has upset, especially against the run. The Titans should be able to put up 3-4 touchdowns in this game (they've scored 45 in their last 12, so close to 4 per game). The key question is if they’ll be able to control the clock enough to keep Kansas City’s high-powered offense off the field.

RUNNING BACKS

Derrick Henry is the postseason’s biggest story, rushing for 182 and 195 yards in leading upsets over the Patriots and Ravens. He was also big in the Week 10 win (188 yards and 2 TDs), and in the playoff meeting after the 2017 season (156 yards and a touchdown). For some perspective on what he’s been doing, Henry’s Week 10 total is just his 3rd-highest rushing total in his last eight games, and one of six in that span with at least 149 yards. He’s great, and now he’s facing a defense ranked 20 spots lower in run defense (26th) during the season than either the Patriots or Ravens teams he – and the line in front of him – just dominated. Since that Week 10 loss, Kansas City has seemingly tightened things up against the run. Including last week it’s allowed an average of 95 rushing yards in its last seven games, with 3 touchdowns. But none of those opponents (Patriots, Broncos, Bears, Raiders, Texans and Chargers twice) had great ground games; only the Texans (with Deshaun Watson a big part of the equation) ranked higher than 12th. Tennessee ranked 3rd, and has the league’s best and hottest running back. Would be a huge surprise if Henry doesn’t wind up getting his yards and probably punch in a touchdown at some point. He’s unlikely to be a factor in the passing game, with just 18 catches all season. But they’re not afraid to give him a little pitch near the line of scrimmage and see if he can bust a big play. He caught a pair of touchdowns from 23 and 75 yards during the season, and also has 3 grabs for 29 yards the last two weeks. Henry with the ball in his hands one way or another is clearly the team’s best weapon right now. Dion Lewis won’t be a factor. His only games with even 5 touches the second half of the season were blowout wins over the Jaguars and Raiders, and the Week 16 game Henry missed. He played only 7 snaps at Baltimore and didn’t get a carry or have a pass thrown his way.

QUARTERBACK

With Henry dominating and the defense holding New England and Baltimore under 14 points, Ryan Tannehill has done very little the last two weeks – under 100 passing yards in both contests. He’s put up 4 total touchdowns, at least, but has averaged under 15 pass attempts. That should change this week. While Tennessee’s defense has played well the last two weeks, it was a below-average group during the season, and shutting down Patrick Mahomes and company, in Kansas City, is a very tall order – no one has held them under 23 points, home or away, since Week 5. So Tannehill should have to do a little more. Only problem is that this was an above-average pass defense during the season (11th), and one that played its best ball the second half of the season. Deshaun Watson threw for 388 yards and 2 touchdowns in last week’s wild shootout, but that was very much an outlier performance and by one of the league’s elite talents. In its last eight games otherwise this defense allowed 228 yards per game, with 10 touchdown passes. That includes Tannehill himself throwing for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 10. This defense had 45 sacks (11th) and 16 interceptions (5th) during the season, so it’s a credible group that can make things happen out there. Tannehill comes off an impressive half-season of work, throwing for over 270 yards in half of his 10 starts (even with Derrick Henry putting up huge numbers) and multiple touchdown passes in nine of them. He’s for real, and it’s a matchup that might require more heavy lifting than the past two weeks. But the running game should still lead the way, and it’s not a defense that’s been lit up by very many opposing passers. He’ll help his cause by running some: 17 yards per game as a starter, with 5 TDs in 12 games (including the playoffs). And even below-average yardage (which is what we’re expecting) will be a huge step up from his last two games.

RECEIVERS

If you the buy the theory that Tannehill should pass for a lot more yards in this matchup than the last two, the receivers will have to do more. They couldn’t possibly do less. A.J. Brown comes off a 1,000-yard season, with 8 TDs. He averaged over 20 yards per catch. But he’s caught just 2 passes for 13 yards the last two weeks. He’ll be better, but the Week 10 game isn’t encouraging: 1 catch for 17 yards on 4 targets that day. Corey Davis missed that one, but the team’s other wide receivers (Tajae Sharpe, Adam Humphries, Kalif Raymond) also caught only 1 pass apiece that game. This defense has done a good job on wideouts for most of the season: 11 touchdowns by the position against it, including just 5 since Week 4. Houston just put three different wideouts over 80 yards last week, so it’s not impenetrable, but that’s a deeper group of wideouts, and the Texans wound up throwing the ball 52 times. Should be more yards to go around this week, but tough to get excited about any of these players. Brown is too talented to underestimate, but a tricky matchup. The depth chart behind him is unexciting. Davis caught a touchdown on a trick play last week. That’s his only catch of the postseason and his first touchdown since Week 7. He’s reached 50 yards just once since then. Humphries caught the game-winning 23-yard touchdown in the earlier meeting. He’s been out with an ankle injury since Week 13, but returned to practice on Wednesday, so possible he’ll be active as the No. 3. Sharpe had some good games down the stretch, including 69 yards and 2 touchdowns against New Orleans in Week 16. But that was a pass-heavy game with Humphries and for that matter Derrick Henry sidelined, so Sharpe is unlikely to have a big role; possibly behind three other wideouts for snaps. Raymond caught a long touchdown last week, but that was just his 10th catch all season.

Jonnu Smith looks more promising than any wideout after A.J. Brown. Kansas City wasn’t anything special covering tight ends during the season, allowing an average 5 touchdowns, plus another one to Darren Fells last week. And back in Week 10 Smith (4 for 30) and Anthony Firkser (3 for 36 with a touchdown) accounted for more than half of Ryan Tannehill’s 13 completions, and 10 of his 19 attempts. They’ve caught a third of his 15 postseason completions (3 for Smith, 2 for Firkser), and each has 1 of Tannehill’s 3 touchdown passes.

KICKER/DEFENSE

It would be easier not to rank Greg Joseph last among the kickers if there were more to go on regarding his ability (opportunity?) to kick field goals. He hasn't even attempted one in four games with the team. He's 15 of 15 on extra points, at least, but that still works out to under 4 kicking points per game. Kansas City allowed fewer than 5.5 per game.

The Titans Defense also looks like the worst of the four teams playing this weekend, at least in fantasy terms. Patrick Mahomes doesn't take a lot of sacks -- 17, which is fewer than half as many as both NFC starters and 14 fewer than Tannehill, despite starting 4 more games. He threw only 5 interceptions. Tennessee was above-average in both categories (43 and 14) but shouldn't get much off Mahomes. The Titans look ordinary on returns (and Kansas City didn't allow any kick return scores this season).

Player projections are below; at the end of the week, after all four teams have been analyzed, we'll see how the rankings shake out.

--Andy Richardson