One of the areas where there's little consensus for tonight's first round of the NFL Draft is if there will be a running back or two selected. I've seen mocks that have D'Andre Swift (pictured) and Jonathan Taylor going, and ones that have nobody at the position. Personally, I'm not sure it matters much. Not so much in Year One, probably not long-term.
I looked at the past 10 years worth of drafted running backs. To make it a manageable group, I cropped it at players who put up at least 500 total yards in their rookie seasons. There were 41 such players. Thirteen were drafted in the first round, 14 were drafted in the second round, and 14 were drafted in the third round. So does it matter if Taylor or Swift gets drafted in round 1 or round 2 or 3? Probably not.
The table below shows those 41 players, sorted by total yards. The three best rookies were drafted in the first round, but the next three were drafted in the second or third. The best 15 players -- at least 1100 total yards -- included seven first-rounders and six second-rounders. Just two third-rounders, so sure, earlier is better. But the difference between running backs selected in the first round and second round is negligible.
| RBS, ROUNDS 1-3, 2010-2019 (500-PLUS TOTAL YARDS) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | Run | Rec | Tot | TD |
| 2018 | 1 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307 | 721 | 2028 | 15 |
| 2016 | 1 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1631 | 363 | 1994 | 16 |
| 2012 | 1 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 472 | 1926 | 12 |
| 2017 | 3 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1327 | 455 | 1782 | 11 |
| 2017 | 3 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 728 | 826 | 1554 | 14 |
| 2013 | 2 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1178 | 257 | 1435 | 11 |
| 2017 | 1 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1040 | 302 | 1342 | 10 |
| 2014 | 2 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1124 | 215 | 1339 | 9 |
| 2019 | 2 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 818 | 509 | 1327 | 6 |
| 2012 | 1 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 950 | 367 | 1317 | 12 |
| 2019 | 1 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 1150 | 166 | 1316 | 7 |
| 2015 | 1 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1106 | 188 | 1294 | 10 |
| 2013 | 2 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 860 | 399 | 1259 | 8 |
| 2013 | 2 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 695 | 514 | 1209 | 8 |
| 2018 | 2 | Nick Chubb, Clev. | 996 | 149 | 1145 | 10 |
| 2017 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 651 | 1086 | 7 |
| 2011 | 3 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 897 | 183 | 1080 | 2 |
| 2019 | 3 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 889 | 185 | 1074 | 7 |
| 2015 | 3 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 581 | 457 | 1038 | 13 |
| 2010 | 1 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 555 | 487 | 1032 | 6 |
| 2015 | 2 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 740 | 279 | 1019 | 3 |
| 2018 | 1 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 931 | 50 | 981 | 6 |
| 2019 | 3 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 775 | 194 | 969 | 4 |
| 2017 | 2 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 626 | 287 | 913 | 4 |
| 2015 | 3 | Duke Johnson, Clev. | 379 | 534 | 913 | 2 |
| 2014 | 3 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 765 | 148 | 913 | 5 |
| 2018 | 2 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 641 | 213 | 854 | 4 |
| 2015 | 1 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 641 | 192 | 833 | 0 |
| 2010 | 1 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 678 | 145 | 823 | 7 |
| 2015 | 3 | Matt Jones, Wash. | 490 | 304 | 794 | 4 |
| 2015 | 2 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 597 | 183 | 780 | 3 |
| 2014 | 3 | Terrance West, Clev. | 673 | 64 | 737 | 5 |
| 2013 | 2 | Montee Ball, Den. | 559 | 145 | 704 | 4 |
| 2014 | 2 | Bishop Sankey, Tenn. | 569 | 133 | 702 | 2 |
| 2014 | 3 | Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 538 | 135 | 673 | 0 |
| 2011 | 2 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | 581 | 72 | 653 | 1 |
| 2016 | 2 | Derrick Henry, Tenn. | 490 | 137 | 627 | 5 |
| 2018 | 3 | Royce Freeman, Den. | 521 | 72 | 593 | 5 |
| 2012 | 3 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 532 | 47 | 579 | 1 |
| 2019 | 3 | Alexander Mattison, Minn. | 462 | 82 | 544 | 1 |
| 2011 | 1 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 474 | 46 | 520 | 5 |
I might be wrong, but my guess right now is that no running backs will be selected tonight. Securing that fifth-year option is more important with other positions. With running backs, if they're really good, you're going to have pay them before their rookie contract runs out anyway, as we've seen recently with Ezekiel Elliott and Christian McCaffrey, or dealing with a holdout situation. If they're not, you won't be keeping them around that long.
If a back does get taken tonight, my lean is it will be Swift. He's the guy I've been most impressed by while watching college game; the best all-around skill set, I think. Taylor wasn't much of a factor in the passing game; that and fumbling issues concern me. Two other backs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Cam Akers, have some passing game ability (especially Edwards-Helaire), and I expect them to go in the second round.
Naturally, somebody will take one of these guys in the 20s tonight and blow that prediction away, but that's my lean right now. No first-rounders, but probably 3-4 second-rounders on Friday.
--Andy Richardson