It looks like a down year for tight ends. There probably won’t be one selected in the first round. Maybe not even in the top 40.
This is unusual. Since the merger in 1970, there have been only 14 years that no tight end has been selected in the first round.
Historically, those guys haven’t tended to step into the league and tear things up. Two of those 14 put up top-15 numbers in their first season – Robert Awalt (1987) and Cam Cleeland (1998).
A couple of others notably went on to outperform their draft position (but with their best seasons coming later ) – Kyle Rudolph and Hunter Henry.
| FIRST TIGHT END OUTSIDE THE FIRST ROUND | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | No | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 1971 | Jan White, Buff. | 29 | 13 | 130 | 0 | 26.0 | 33 |
| 1982 | Lawrence Sampleton, Phil. | 47 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 3.4 | 62 |
| 1985 | Jonathan Hayes, K.C. | 41 | 5 | 39 | 1 | 14.9 | 56 |
| 1986 | Eric Kattus, Cin. | 91 | 11 | 99 | 1 | 26.9 | 46 |
| 1987 | Robert Awalt, St.L. | 62 | 42 | 526 | 6 | 129.7 | 2 |
| 1989 | Walter Reeves, Ariz. | 40 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | 75 |
| 1991 | Reggie Johnson, Den. | 30 | 6 | 73 | 1 | 19.3 | 46 |
| 1994 | Lonnie Johnson, Buff. | 61 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 7.2 | 64 |
| 1998 | Cam Cleeland, N.O. | 40 | 54 | 684 | 6 | 158.4 | 4 |
| 1999 | Reggie Kelly, Atl. | 42 | 8 | 146 | 0 | 22.6 | 52 |
| 2011 | Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 43 | 26 | 249 | 3 | 68.9 | 34 |
| 2012 | Coby Fleener, Ind. | 34 | 26 | 281 | 2 | 66.1 | 38 |
| 2015 | Maxx Williams, Balt. | 55 | 32 | 268 | 1 | 64.8 | 39 |
| 2016 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 35 | 36 | 478 | 8 | 131.8 | 18 |
While there aren’t wildly coveted tight ends in this draft class, however, that doesn’t mean there won’t be some very good ones. Nobody, for example, was talking about Mark Andrews, George Kittle and Travis Kelce as Day One draft picks, and they’ve become fine players.
In the last 20 years, 33 players have entered the league and at some point put up top-5 numbers at the position (using PPR scoring). Less than a third of those guys were first-rounders.
| TIGHT ENDS WITH TOP-5 SEASONS (last 20 yrs) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | College | Rd | Pk |
| 2000 | Bubba Franks | Miami | 1 | 14 |
| 2001 | Todd Heap | Arizona State | 1 | 31 |
| 2001 | Alge Crumpler | North Carolina | 2 | 35 |
| 2001 | Eric Johnson | Yale | 7 | 224 |
| 2002 | Jeremy Shockey | Miami | 1 | 14 |
| 2002 | Randy McMichael | Georgia | 4 | 114 |
| 2003 | Dallas Clark | Iowa | 1 | 24 |
| 2003 | Jason Witten | Tennessee | 3 | 69 |
| 2003 | Antonio Gates | Kent State | -- | FA |
| 2004 | Chris Cooley | Utah State | 3 | 81 |
| 2005 | Heath Miller | Virginia | 1 | 30 |
| 2006 | Marcedes Lewis | UCLA | 1 | 28 |
| 2006 | Vernon Davis | Maryland | 1 | 6 |
| 2006 | Delanie Walker | Central Missouri | 6 | 175 |
| 2007 | Greg Olsen | Miami | 1 | 31 |
| 2007 | Brent Celek | Cincinnati | 5 | 162 |
| 2008 | Martellus Bennett | Texas A&M | 2 | 61 |
| 2008 | Gary Barnidge | Louisville | 5 | 141 |
| 2009 | Jared Cook | South Carolina | 3 | 89 |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski | Arizona | 2 | 42 |
| 2010 | Jimmy Graham | Miami | 3 | 95 |
| 2010 | Aaron Hernandez | Florida | 4 | 113 |
| 2011 | Kyle Rudolph | Notre Dame | 2 | 43 |
| 2011 | Jordan Cameron | Southern Cal | 4 | 102 |
| 2011 | Julius Thomas | Portland State | 4 | 129 |
| 2013 | Zach Ertz | Stanford | 2 | 35 |
| 2013 | Travis Kelce | Cincinnati | 3 | 63 |
| 2013 | Jordan Reed | Florida | 3 | 85 |
| 2014 | Eric Ebron | North Carolina | 1 | 10 |
| 2015 | Darren Waller | Georgia Tech | 6 | 204 |
| 2017 | Evan Engram | Mississippi | 1 | 23 |
| 2017 | George Kittle | Iowa | 5 | 146 |
| 2018 | Mark Andrews | Oklahoma | 3 | 86 |
I have looked at a few mock drafts, and they suggest Cole Kmet will be the first tight end chosen. He didn’t put up huge numbers at Notre Dame – he caught 43 passes for 515 yards and 6 TDs last year. He’s more of a pass catcher than a blocker – he needs to fill out. He’s taller than most tight ends (6-6, 262), and with larger hands.
We’ll see where he lands, but I would expect Kmet probably will be worked in more as a rookie, rather than asked to be a full-time guy from the get-go. If he’s going to put up impact production, it will more likely come in a later season (especially with the coronavirus dynamic restricting the ability of teams to practice and prepare in the offseason).
—Ian Allan