Factoid

April 25, 2020

2nd-round running backs

What should expectations be for five incoming rookies?

It was an historic class of wideouts, with more drafted in the first two rounds than ever before, and a noteworthy one for offensive tackles -- four drafted in the top 13 for just the second time since 1992. But it looks like teams also had some fondness for the incoming running backs.

Just one, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, selected in the first round, of course, but five selected in Round 2 last night. That's rare: it's happened only one other time this century. (On average, 2.4 running backs have been selected in the second round since 2000; half as many.)

The downside from a fantasy perspective is that three of those guys -- D'Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor and AJ Dillon -- were drafted by teams that have a young, established starter at the position (Colts and Packers certainly, Lions to a lesser extent). J.K. Dobbins (pictured) goes to the league's best rushing team (Ravens) but will need to bide his time, at least initially, behind Mark Ingram and probably Gus Edwards. Cam Akers to the Rams has the least in front of him (Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown).

With all of these guys, there was at least a little hope they'd go to a team where their odds were better of being an early starter -- Miami, or perhaps Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay. (The Bucs did select a third-round prospect, KeShawn Vaughn, and in redraft leagues he might be selected before most of the second rounders.)

Anyway, here are the 47 second-rounders from the last 20 years, with their rookie numbers shown. About half (24) of those players finished under 500 total yards as rookies. A little more than a fifth (10) finished with top-25 fantasy numbers (PPR); those guys are in bold. Statistically, those are the odds that these players will have a significant rookie season.

2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, ROOKIE PERFORMANCE (2000-)
Year	Pk	Player	Att	Yds	No	Rec	Tot	TD	Rk
2019	53	Miles Sanders, Phil.	179	818	50	509	1327	6	15
2018	35	Nick Chubb, Clev.	192	996	20	149	1145	10	17
2018	43	Kerryon Johnson, Det.	118	641	32	213	854	4	33
2018	38	Ronald Jones, T.B.	23	44	7	33	77	1	95
2018	59	Derrius Guice, Wash.	0	0	0	0	0	0	--
2017	48	Joe Mixon, Cin.	178	626	30	287	913	4	33
2017	41	Dalvin Cook, Minn.	74	354	11	90	444	2	72
2016	45	Derrick Henry, Tenn.	110	490	13	137	627	5	45
2015	36	T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	182	740	36	279	1019	3	28
2015	54	Ameer Abdullah, Det.	143	597	25	183	780	3	44
2014	55	Jeremy Hill, Cin.	222	1124	27	215	1339	9	10
2014	54	Bishop Sankey, Tenn.	152	569	18	133	702	2	44
2014	57	Carlos Hyde, S.F.	83	333	12	68	401	4	61
2013	61	Eddie Lacy, G.B.	284	1178	35	257	1435	11	8
2013	37	Giovani Bernard, Cin.	170	695	56	514	1209	8	13
2013	48	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	244	860	45	399	1259	8	15
2013	58	Montee Ball, Den.	120	559	20	145	704	4	43
2013	62	Christine Michael, Sea.	18	79	0	0	79	0	131
2012	61	LaMichael James, S.F.	27	125	3	29	154	0	116
2012	50	Isaiah Pead, St.L.	10	54	3	16	70	0	130
2011	62	Daniel Thomas, Mia.	165	581	12	72	653	1	51
2011	56	Shane Vereen, N.E.	15	57	0	0	57	1	123
2011	57	Mikel Leshoure, Det.	0	0	0	0	0	0	--
2011	38	Ryan Williams, Ariz.	0	0	0	0	0	0	--
2010	51	Toby Gerhart, Minn.	81	322	21	167	489	1	58
2010	58	Ben Tate, Hou.	0	0	0	0	0	0	--
2010	59	Montario Hardesty, Clev.	0	0	0	0	0	0	--
2009	53	LeSean McCoy, Phil.	155	637	40	308	945	4	32
2008	44	Matt Forte, Chi.	316	1238	63	477	1715	12	2
2008	55	Ray Rice, Balt.	107	454	33	273	727	0	49
2007	63	Brandon Jackson, G.B.	75	267	16	130	397	1	67
2007	50	Chris Henry, Tenn.	31	119	6	53	172	2	--
2007	49	Kenny Irons, Cin.	0	0	0	0	0	0	--
2006	60	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	166	941	46	436	1377	16	8
2006	45	LenDale White, Tenn.	61	244	14	60	304	0	72
2005	44	J.J. Arrington, Ariz.	112	370	25	139	509	2	53
2005	54	Eric Shelton, Car.	0	0	0	0	0	0	--
2004	43	Julius Jones, Dall.	197	819	17	107	926	7	31
2004	41	Tatum Bell, Den.	75	396	5	80	476	3	63
2004	55	Greg Jones, Jac.	62	162	3	13	175	3	83
2002	51	Clinton Portis, Den.	273	1508	33	364	1872	17	7
2002	56	Ladell Betts, Wash.	65	307	12	154	461	1	62
2002	54	Maurice Morris, Sea.	32	153	3	25	178	1	95
2002	34	DeShaun Foster, Car.	0	0	0	0	0	0	--
2001	38	Anthony Thomas, Chi.	278	1183	22	178	1361	7	17
2001	58	Travis Henry, Buff.	213	729	22	179	908	4	30
2001	49	LaMont Jordan, NYJ	39	292	7	44	336	2	72

Long-term, incidentally, I think some of these picks are very intriguing. Jonathan Taylor goes to a Colts team that has a great offensive line, and Marlon Mack has had some injury issues. D'Andre Swift joins the Lions where Kerryon Johnson has also been injury-prone, and ordinary when he's on the field. Those rookies might start some games this year, and enable the teams to avoid giving second contracts to those backs. Dobbins can replace Ingram a year or two down the road, Akers could start right away with Henderson having shown nothing, and Dillon should be a nice No. 2 and possible replacement if Aaron Jones gets hurt or leaves after his current contract is up.

But most likely, only one or at most two of these guys will be significant players in 2020. You draft most of them in middle or later rounds and hope they get a chance due to injury. Definitely not as a Week 1 starter.

--Andy Richardson

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