I participated in an Experts Draft last week. I left wondering if Hayden Hurst might be this year's version of Austin Hooper. Not just for Atlanta, but for fantasy leagues, as well. He was available much later than I expected — later than I think he should be.
A lot of Index teams had Hooper on their roster a year ago; he was a guy we thought would be pretty good with the leading role in Atlanta's offense for an entire season. He wound up as the 6th-best tight end even while missing three games. Hooper left in free agency, but the Falcons sent a second-round pick to Baltimore to acquire Hayden Hurst. A big enough investment that it looks pretty safe to say he's going to step into their No. 1 role.
For most of the last decade, it's been a very good one for fantasy teams. Atlanta has had six top-10 players at the position and two others in the teens in the last 10 years.
| ATLANTA TIGHT ENDS, 2010-PRESENT | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | No | Yds | TD | FFRk |
| 2010 | Gonzalez | 108 | 70 | 656 | 4 | 6 |
| 2011 | Gonzalez | 116 | 80 | 875 | 7 | 4 |
| 2012 | Gonzalez | 124 | 93 | 930 | 8 | 2 |
| 2013 | Gonzalez | 121 | 83 | 859 | 8 | 2 |
| 2014 | Toilolo | 54 | 31 | 238 | 2 | 32 |
| 2015 | Tamme | 81 | 59 | 657 | 1 | 14 |
| 2016 | Tamme/Hooper | 58 | 41 | 481 | 5 | -- |
| 2017 | Hooper | 65 | 49 | 526 | 3 | 17 |
| 2018 | Hooper | 88 | 71 | 660 | 4 | 6 |
| 2019 | Hooper | 97 | 75 | 787 | 6 | 6 |
Four of those top-10 finishes were by Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez. Hurst is a former first-round pick who got Wally Pipped by Mark Andrews; no one should hold him to that standard.
But it's not unreasonable to think he could be about as good as Hooper, who's not an elite athlete, or better than Jacob Tamme, who put up fantasy relevant stats one year (and who I combined with Hooper for another year where they kind of shared the receiving role). He's definitely a better athlete than blocker Levine Toilolo, about the only guy who did nothing for them at the position the last 10 years.
Atlanta also has former undrafted free agent Jaeden Graham, who will maybe give some pause. Graham did have a 4-catch game in one of the contests Hooper missed last year. But he had 5 other catches all season. I'm pretty comfortable believing the trade for Hurst is a sign that Graham will remain in a clear backup role.
I don't think anyone will need to draft Hurst as a top-10 tight end, but there's a really good chance he'll perform at that level. I'll have Hurst on way more teams this year than I will Hooper.
--Andy Richardson