Factoid

July 11, 2020

Rookie RBs: big college producers

Odds of instant success for Edwards-Helaire, Taylor

It was a great group of incoming rookies, with 26 running backs and wide receivers selected in the first three rounds. With the pandemic, it will be harder than usual for those players to make an impact, but there should be some impact rookies, especially at running back (where the learning curve isn't as steep and injuries are more prevalent).

I took a look at the last decade's worth of running backs drafted in the first three rounds, wondering if big college production translated to big rookie year numbers. Since 2010, there have been 82 running backs selected in the first three rounds of drafts. Of those players, 34 put up huge numbers in their final year of college -- at least 1,800 total yards. That includes six of the incoming 2020 rookies. How did the previous 28 fare in their initial seasons?

About a third of them (10) did very little -- less than 500 total yards. That includes one 2019 rookie, Darrell Henderson. It also includes a player who was having a very good rookie season until getting hurt (Dalvin Cook).

Almost as many (8) had big rookie seasons; 1,000-plus total yards. The same number finished in the top 25 (PPR) at their position that year. That's where franchise guys like Barkley, Elliott, Bell and McCaffrey show up. But note that half of that group was drafted in the first round, which tends to get you into lineups quicker. Just one first-rounder this year (Clyde Edwards-Helaire, pictured).

By that measure, you could guess that 1-2 (probably no more than 2) of those 1,800-yard college backs (Edwards-Helaire, Taylor, Dobbins, Moss, Dillon and Bowden) will finish their rookie seasons with significant numbers.

Table shows final year of college total yards and touchdowns, and then rookie year numbers (sorted by yardage).

ROOKIE NUMBERS, BIG COLLEGE PRODUCERS (2010-PRESENT)
Year	Rd	Player	Tot(C)	TD(C)	Run	Rec	Tot	TD	Rk
2018	1	Saquon Barkley, NYG	1903	21	1307	721	2028	15	2
2016	1	Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	2027	23	1631	363	1994	16	2
2017	3	Kareem Hunt, K.C.	1878	11	1327	455	1782	11	4
2012	1	Trent Richardson, Clev.	2017	24	950	367	1317	12	8
2013	2	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	1960	13	860	399	1259	8	15
2017	1	Christian McCaffrey, Car.	1913	16	435	651	1086	7	9
2011	3	DeMarco Murray, Dall.	1808	20	897	183	1080	2	30
2015	3	David Johnson, Ariz.	2089	19	581	457	1038	13	7
2014	3	Tre Mason, St.L.	2179	24	765	148	913	5	30
2015	3	Duke Johnson, Clev.	2073	13	379	534	913	2	24
2017	2	Joe Mixon, Cin.	1812	16	626	287	913	4	33
2015	1	Melvin Gordon, S.D.	2740	32	641	192	833	0	45
2010	1	Ryan Mathews, S.D.	1930	19	678	145	823	7	31
2015	2	Ameer Abdullah, Det.	1880	22	597	183	780	3	44
2014	3	Terrance West, Clev.	2777	42	673	64	737	5	41
2013	2	Montee Ball, Den.	1902	22	559	145	704	4	43
2014	2	Bishop Sankey, Tenn.	2174	21	569	133	702	2	44
2016	2	Derrick Henry, Tenn.	2310	28	490	137	627	5	45
2018	1	Rashaad Penny, Sea.	2383	25	419	75	494	2	68
2010	2	Toby Gerhart, Minn.	2028	28	322	167	489	1	58
2017	2	Dalvin Cook, Minn.	2253	20	354	90	444	2	72
2017	3	D'Onta Foreman, Hou.	2351	15	327	83	410	2	74
2015	3	Tevin Coleman, Atl.	2177	15	392	14	406	1	79
2012	3	Ronnie Hillman, Den.	1981	20	330	62	392	1	67
2012	1	David Wilson, NYG	1838	10	358	34	392	5	51
2019	3	Darrell Henderson, LAR	2204	25	147	37	184	0	98
2012	2	LaMichael James, S.F.	2015	19	125	29	154	0	116
2011	2	Mikel Leshoure, Det.	1893	20	0	0	0	0	--
2020	2	Jonathan Taylor, Ind.	2255	26	?	?	?	?	?
2020	2	J.K. Dobbins, Balt.	2250	23	?	?	?	?	?
2020	2	A.J. Dillon, G.B.	1880	15	?	?	?	?	?
2020	1	Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.	1867	17	?	?	?	?	?
2020	3	Lynn Bowden, L.V.	1816	14	?	?	?	?	?
2020	3	Zack Moss, Buff.	1804	17	?	?	?	?	?

--Andy Richardson

Rookie running backs

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