Factoid

July 11, 2020

Running for dollars

Running backs tend to peak early

There are running backs angling for new contracts. Derrick Henry and Raheem Mostert have been in the news recently. And Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and James Conner. But the big-picture odds are stacked against all of those guys.

Under the current labor deal (which will run through the upcoming decade) players are all assigned slotted contracts. The money you get for those first four years is pre-determined, and everybody gets an initial four-year contract. Those can’t be negiotated. For the first-round picks, the team also gets the ability to pick up a fifth-year option.

Only after four (sometimes five) years can a player reach true free agency, and for the rare cases, the team has the ability to kick the can down the road an additional year by using a franchise or transition tag.

It’s a system that works better for the other positions. With the running backs, the vast majority of careers are over before the player ever reaches the free market. And for the few elite running backs who become free agents, it’s fair to wonder if they’ve already played their best ball.

Kamara, Conner and Aaron Jones, for example – have those guys already played their best seasons? Probably (or at least maybe).

Consider the following chart, which shows the top 100 running backs of the last 20 years. For this one, I looked at the best career season of all running backs from the last 30 years. (I tossed out all other seasons). Then I skimmed off the top 100 seasons of the last 20 years.

Of this group, 63 of the seasons came in the first four years of a player’s career. So for almost two thirds of the players, that best season came before the player could have reached free agency. For just over a third of the players, the best came after those first four seasons. That includes LaDainian Tomlinson (pictured) who authored the best season of the last 20 years.

Only 11 of these 100 seasons were put together by running backs at least 30 years old.

It’s a young man’s position, and it’s hard for them to ever really hit the jackpot.

Note that for Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Jones and Conner, they’re all entering their fourth years. So if they sign extensions before the season begins, it’s with the team holding more of the cards. If any of those players wants to reach true free agency, they have to make it through the season without suffering some kind of career-altering injury (difficult at this punishing position). And they would have to then hope that the team simply didn’t push free agency back a year by using some kind of tag.

I wish the Player’s Association had done more to address the running back problem before agreeing to latest labor deal. It did not, so what we’ve had for the last decade is what we’ll continue to have for the foreseeable future.

On the chart below, players outside their first four years are tagged with dots. Players who were at least 30 at the end of the season are in bold.

CAREER-BEST SEASONS, RUNNING BACKS (last 20 years)
Year	Player	Yr	Age	Run	Rec	TD	PPR
2006	• LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.	6	27	1,815	508	31	483.3
2019	Christian McCaffrey, Car.	3	23	1,387	1,005	19	471.2
2000	• Marshall Faulk, St.L.	7	27	1,359	830	26	459.9
2003	• Priest Holmes, K.C.	7	30	1,420	690	27	447.0
2006	Steven Jackson, St.L.	3	23	1,528	806	16	419.4
2016	David Johnson, Ariz.	2	25	1,239	879	20	413.8
2000	Edgerrin James, Ind.	2	22	1,709	594	18	403.3
2009	Chris Johnson, Ten.	2	24	2,006	503	16	398.9
2010	Arian Foster, Hou.	2	24	1,616	604	18	396.0
2003	• Ahman Green, G.B.	6	26	1,883	367	20	395.0
2017	Todd Gurley, LAR	3	23	1,305	788	19	387.3
2018	Saquon Barkley, NYG	1	21	1,307	721	15	385.8
2013	• Jamaal Charles, K.C.	6	27	1,287	693	19	382.0
2005	• Shaun Alexander, Sea.	6	28	1,880	78	28	378.8
2011	Ray Rice, Balt.	4	24	1,364	704	15	376.9
2006	Larry Johnson, K.C.	4	27	1,789	410	19	374.9
2007	• Brian Westbrook, Phil.	6	28	1,333	771	12	372.4
2002	Ricky Williams, Mia.	4	25	1,853	363	17	370.6
2014	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	2	22	1,361	854	11	370.5
2014	DeMarco Murray, Dall.	4	26	1,845	416	13	361.1
2005	• Tiki Barber, NYG	9	30	1,860	530	11	361.0
2018	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	2	23	883	709	18	354.2
2012	• Adrian Peterson, Min.	6	27	2,097	217	13	351.4
2014	• Matt Forte, Chi.	7	29	1,038	808	10	350.6
2002	• Charlie Garner, Oak.	9	30	962	941	11	347.3
2000	• Eddie George, Ten.	5	27	1,509	453	16	342.2
2003	Jamal Lewis, Balt.	4	24	2,066	205	14	337.1
2006	Frank Gore, S.F.	2	23	1,695	485	9	333.0
2003	Deuce McAllister, N.O.	3	25	1,641	516	8	332.7
2013	• LeSean McCoy, Phil.	5	25	1,607	539	11	332.6
2018	Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.	3	23	1,434	567	9	331.1
2004	Domanick Williams, Hou.	2	24	1,188	588	14	329.6
2009	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	4	24	1,391	374	16	325.5
2002	Clinton Portis, Den.	1	21	1,508	364	17	322.2
2015	Devonta Freeman, Atl.	2	23	1,056	578	14	320.4
2004	• Curtis Martin, NYJ	10	31	1,697	245	14	319.2
2019	Aaron Jones, G.B.	3	25	1,084	474	19	318.8
2012	Doug Martin, T.B.	1	23	1,454	472	12	313.6
2019	Austin Ekeler, LAC	3	24	557	993	11	313.0
2008	DeAngelo Williams, Car.	3	25	1,515	121	20	307.6
2014	• Marshawn Lynch, Sea.	8	28	1,306	367	17	306.3
2010	Peyton Hillis, Cle.	3	24	1,177	477	13	305.1
2002	Travis Henry, Buff.	2	24	1,438	309	14	301.7
2019	Derrick Henry, Ten.	4	25	1,540	206	18	300.6
2006	Willie Parker, Pitt.	3	26	1,494	222	16	298.6
2017	Kareem Hunt, K.C.	1	22	1,327	455	11	297.2
2005	• LaMont Jordan, Oak.	5	27	1,025	563	11	296.8
2013	• Knowshon Moreno, Den.	5	26	1,038	548	13	296.6
2019	Dalvin Cook, Min.	3	24	1,135	519	13	296.4
2017	Melvin Gordon, LAC	3	24	1,105	476	12	288.1
2017	• Mark Ingram, N.O.	7	28	1,124	416	12	284.0
2018	James Conner, Pitt.	2	23	973	497	13	284.0
2000	• Robert Smith, Min.	8	28	1,521	348	10	282.9
2008	• Michael Turner, Atl.	5	26	1,699	41	17	282.0
2000	Mike Anderson, Den.	1	27	1,487	169	15	280.6
2008	• Thomas Jones, NYJ	9	30	1,312	207	15	277.9
2011	• Darren Sproles, N.O.	7	28	603	710	10	277.3
2018	• James White, N.E.	5	26	425	751	12	276.6
2014	Eddie Lacy, G.B.	2	24	1,139	427	13	276.6
2007	Joseph Addai, Ind.	2	24	1,072	364	15	276.6
2008	Steve Slaton, Hou.	1	22	1,282	377	10	275.9
2010	Darren McFadden, Oak.	3	23	1,157	507	10	273.4
2006	Reggie Bush, N.O.	1	21	565	742	9	272.7
2004	• Corey Dillon, N.E.	8	30	1,635	103	13	268.8
2019	Leonard Fournette, Jac.	3	24	1,152	522	3	261.4
2012	C.J. Spiller, Buff.	3	25	1,244	459	8	261.3
2019	Nick Chubb, Cle.	2	24	1,494	278	8	261.2
2000	• Lamar Smith, Mia.	7	30	1,139	201	16	261.0
2002	• Duce Staley, Phil.	6	27	1,029	541	8	258.0
2012	Alfred Morris, Was.	1	24	1,613	77	13	258.0
2012	Trent Richardson, Cle.	1	22	950	367	12	254.7
2000	Warrick Dunn, T.B.	4	25	1,133	422	9	253.5
2003	• Moe Williams, Min.	8	29	745	644	8	251.9
2010	Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG	4	24	1,235	314	8	251.9
2005	Rudi Johnson, Cin.	4	26	1,458	90	12	249.8
2000	• James Stewart, Det.	6	29	1,184	287	11	249.1
2014	• Justin Forsett, Balt.	7	29	1,266	263	8	246.9
2010	Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.	3	23	1,273	167	13	245.0
2018	Joe Mixon, Cin.	2	22	1,168	296	9	243.4
2015	• Danny Woodhead, S.D.	7	30	336	755	9	243.1
2006	• Ladell Betts, Was.	5	27	1,154	445	5	242.9
2007	Marion Barber, Dall.	3	24	975	282	12	241.7
2019	Chris Carson, Sea.	3	25	1,230	266	9	240.6
2011	Ryan Mathews, S.D.	2	24	1,091	455	6	240.6
2018	Tarik Cohen, Chi.	2	23	444	725	8	240.0
2000	Michael Pittman, Ariz.	3	25	719	579	6	238.8
2002	Michael Bennett, Min.	2	24	1,296	351	6	237.7
2009	Ryan Grant, G.B.	4	27	1,253	197	11	236.0
2017	Carlos Hyde, S.F.	4	27	938	350	8	235.8
2016	• LeGarrette Blount, N.E.	7	30	1,161	38	18	234.9
2007	• Willis McGahee, Balt.	5	26	1,207	231	8	234.8
2013	• Fred Jackson, Buff.	8	32	890	387	10	234.7
2015	Lamar Miller, Mia.	4	24	872	397	10	233.9
2016	Jordan Howard, Chi.	1	22	1,313	298	7	232.1
2001	• Antowain Smith, N.E.	5	29	1,157	192	13	231.9
2007	• Earnest Graham, T.B.	5	27	898	324	10	231.2
2006	Kevin Jones, Det.	3	24	689	520	8	229.9
2006	• Chester Taylor, Min.	5	27	1,216	288	6	228.4
2004	Reuben Droughns, Den.	4	26	1,240	241	8	228.1
2001	Dominic Rhodes, Ind.	1	22	1,104	224	10	226.8

—Ian Allan

LaDainian Tomlinson

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