Factoid

July 12, 2020

Rookie RBs: lesser college producers

Quick impact for college committee backs?

Yesterday I ran an item about incoming rookie running backs who put up huge numbers (1,800 total yards) their final seasons of college; how they fared in their rookie seasons. This is the companion piece: how the running backs who weren't as productive their final years of college performed in their first NFL seasons.

I limited it to running backs drafted in the first three rounds, to make for a more manageable list (and to exclude later picks who sometimes hit as rookies, but aren't expected to). Teams seldom count on fourth- or fifth-round running backs doing big things in their rookie seasons, and fantasy GMs shouldn't either.

Finally, I'm splitting the players in half, since all sub-1,800 yard guys aren't equal. Players who put up 1,700 total yards are a lot more similar to yesterday's group than those who were under 1,000. I'm showing all the numbers, but I'm classifying the "lesser" college performers as the ones who were under 1,300 total yards in their final years of college. That gives us a group of 18 running backs from the past decade, including a pair of 2020 third-rounders (KeShawn Vaughn, pictured, and Antonio Gibson).

Of those previous 16 backs, just under a third (five) put up top-25 (PPR) numbers in their first seasons. That includes 2019 rookie Josh Jacobs (the other 2019 rookie in this group, Damien Harris, barely got on the field). So decent odds for those "lesser" performers in college having significant rookie seasons.

Like yesterday, table shows total yards and touchdowns for each player in their final year of college, followed by rookie numbers and fantasy rank at the position.

ROOKIE NUMBERS, LESSER COLLEGE PRODUCERS (2010-PRESENT)
Year	Rd	Player	Yds(C)	TD(C)	Run	Rec	Tot	TD	FF
2019	1	Josh Jacobs, Oak.	887	15	1150	166	1316	7	21
2015	1	Todd Gurley, St.L.	968	9	1106	188	1294	10	9
2010	1	Jahvid Best, Det.	1080	16	555	487	1032	6	20
2015	2	T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	1159	12	740	279	1019	3	28
2015	3	Matt Jones, Wash.	882	7	490	304	794	4	41
2014	3	Jerick McKinnon, Minn.	1073	12	538	135	673	0	48
2011	1	Mark Ingram, N.O.	1157	14	474	46	520	5	46
2011	3	Stevan Ridley, N.E.	1208	15	441	13	454	1	73
2013	3	Knile Davis, K.C.	534	3	242	75	317	5	56
2016	3	Kenyan Drake, Mia.	684	2	179	46	225	2	74
2013	2	Christine Michael, Sea.	465	12	79	0	79	0	131
2014	3	Dri Archer, Pitt.	854	11	40	23	63	0	155
2019	3	Damien Harris, N.E.	1080	9	12	0	12	0	142
2011	2	Ryan Williams, Ariz.	586	10	0	0	0	0	--
2020	3	KeShawn Vaughn, T.B.	1298	10	?	?	?	?	?
2020	3	Antonio Gibson, Wash.	1104	12	?	?	?	?	?

Finally, for completeness, here are the other 31 running backs selected in the first three rounds over the last decade, including three 2020 backs (D'Andre Swift, Cam Akers and Darrynton Evans). These are guys who fell a little short of yesterday's group but were over today's -- the 1,300 total yards to 1,799 total yards guys. That includes a couple of last year's rookies, Miles Sanders and David Montgomery. Just under a third (9 of 28) put up top-25 numbers as rookies.

ROOKIE NUMBERS, MIDDLE-GROUND COLLEGE PRODUCERS, 2010-PRESENT
Year	Rd	Player	Yds(C)	TD(C)	Run	Rec	Tot	TD	FF
2012	1	Doug Martin, T.B.	1554	18	1454	472	1926	12	2
2017	3	Alvin Kamara, N.O.	988	13	728	826	1554	14	3
2013	2	Eddie Lacy, G.B.	1511	19	1178	257	1435	11	8
2017	1	Leonard Fournette, Jac.	989	8	1040	302	1342	10	10
2014	2	Jeremy Hill, Cin.	1582	16	1124	215	1339	9	10
2019	2	Miles Sanders, Phil.	1413	9	818	509	1327	6	15
2013	2	Giovani Bernard, Cin.	1718	17	695	514	1209	8	13
2018	2	Nick Chubb, Clev.	1375	15	996	149	1145	10	17
2019	3	David Montgomery, Chi.	1373	13	889	185	1074	7	24
2018	1	Sony Michel, N.E.	1323	17	931	50	981	6	34
2019	3	Devin Singletary, Buff.	1384	22	775	194	969	4	33
2018	2	Kerryon Johnson, Det.	1585	20	641	213	854	4	33
2011	2	Daniel Thomas, Mia.	1756	19	581	72	653	1	51
2018	3	Royce Freeman, Den.	1639	16	521	72	593	5	46
2012	3	Bernard Pierce, Balt.	1533	27	532	47	579	1	59
2019	3	Alexander Mattison, Minn.	1588	17	462	82	544	1	61
2010	1	C.J. Spiller, Buff.	1715	16	283	157	440	1	55
2014	2	Carlos Hyde, S.F.	1668	18	333	68	401	4	61
2016	3	C.J. Prosise, Sea.	1337	12	172	208	380	1	68
2014	3	Charles Sims, T.B.	1496	14	185	190	375	1	73
2017	3	James Conner, Pitt.	1394	20	144	0	144	0	113
2018	2	Ronald Jones, T.B.	1737	20	44	33	77	1	95
2012	2	Isaiah Pead, St.L.	1578	15	54	16	70	0	130
2011	2	Shane Vereen, N.E.	1376	16	57	0	57	1	123
2011	3	Alex Green, G.B.	1562	19	11	6	17	0	150
2010	2	Montario Hardesty, Clev.	1647	14	0	0	0	0	--
2010	2	Ben Tate, Hou.	1467	10	0	0	0	0	--
2018	2	Derrius Guice, Wash.	1375	13	0	0	0	0	--
2020	2	D'Andre Swift, Det.	1434	8	?	?	?	?	?
2020	2	Cam Akers, LAR	1369	18	?	?	?	?	?
2020	3	Darrynton Evans, Tenn.	1678	24	?	?	?	?	?

At the risk of giving too much of a blanket statement, it doesn't look like a huge difference between the guys who knocked it out of the park in their final college seasons and the guys who, for one reason or another, but up ordinary or lesser numbers. If you select a rookie running back drafted in the first three rounds in April, looks like about a 1-in-3 chance of that player hitting for you. And although odds are a little better for first-rounders (9 of the 22 top-25 backs in these two posts were drafted in the first round), about 60 percent (13) were drafted in the second or third round.

--Andy Richardson

Rookie running backs

Older

Newer

My dad and I have subscribed since I was 10 years old and I am 38 now. We canʼt go a season without it.

Trevor T. Sparks, Nev.

You guys are great - if you look at my account, I believe I have been a subscriber for around 20 years! Unfortunately, a few years ago a couple of other owners found the same publication (they didnʼt get it from me; I always disguised the sheets while at the draft!)

Michael B. St. Charles, Mo.

I have purchased your magazine since my first fantasy football season ever 12 season ago and love the insight you offer. Thank you for the great service, I look forward to many many more years of enjoying your subscription!

Paul L. Mequon, Wisc.

The magazine is exactly the same as last year, which is perfect. Boys, we have a chance to repeat in the 33rd year of the NWFFL. I am counting on you to help pull it off. FI has been a league staple for decades, one of my guys has every edition. A few years ago, we devised a clever way to use one of your lists to draft a team for an absent owner, the sob won it all. We love you guys. Peace!

Glenn S. Olympia, Wash.

Hi, received my copy over the weekend and I think it's the best work you guys have done (I've been reading your publication since 1988). The writing is terrific and full of good humor, along with more substance than anybody else has.

Keep up the great work!

John L. Madison, Wis.

I'm in 3 leagues. All have different formats. I bought one magazine, the same magazine for 30 years. I keep the Fantasy Football Index handy and refer back to your preseason reports throughout the season to help me evaluate roster moves in every format. This week I'm in two championship games and a semifinal. Did I tell you I'm in three leagues? Three playoff teams! Best fantasy season ever. Thank you.

Henry G. Bartlett, Ill.

Thanks for another great season of Fantasy Index, you avoid group-think and form your own opinions, and always have. I've been using your products since 1992, and you've always been a cut above the rest.

Rob D. Wellington, Fla.

Thank you for all you do and what your team does. Been playing since mid 90s and your mag has been there every year. The mailer I get with the questions on the front is what I consider the beginning of the fantasy football season. Get the updates and listen to the podcast. I write a weekly column for the newspaper I work at and always appreciate the work you put in to produce as much as you do. Just a fan saying thanks and will keep up with you and the site through the season.

Jason C. Tulsa, Okla.

A little feedback from a long time customer.

Our fantasy pool is entering its 25^th year and I have used multiple books and on-line tools over the years.

I have locked on to Fantasy Index as my go to for the last 5 years and have won the pool 3 of those years and finished no lower than 4^th.

Interesting to see how much more accurate you were at the end of the year compared to other books my competitors used.

Having it in a format that allows me to work the forecasts to match our scoring system and then receive updates as the season approaches is invaluable. Whoever your sources are for the forecasts are the best. Hang on to them. Thanks for the help!!

Peter M. London, Ontario, Canada

I did receive the updated draft ranking from you guys in plenty of time for my draft that night. My draft report gave me an A+ and predicted me to go 14-0 and win my league! I just want to say thank you for the excellent customer service that your company provided me. When I first started playing fantasy football more than 15 years ago, I used to buy as many fantasy football magazines as I could find. It wasnʼt long before I only purchased Fantasy Football Index each year. It is by far the most comprehensive, well written fantasy football magazine on the market. Also, I almost always rank in the top three in my fantasy football leagues, and won my league last year. Thank you to you and all of your great team. You have a customer for life!

Trey C. Fort Worth, Texas

Thank you for all the updates etc. In the last 14 or 15 years, we have placed in the top three 9 times winning it all 4 times. I have been a customer of yours for many years. Our success is partially due to luck, but I think your magazine with all of the good stuff has been a real contributing factor. Keep up the good work. Will be a customer until the time I can't read anymore.

Richard M. Imperial, Neb.

I just wanted to send everyone at Fantasy Football Index an apology. Since 2003 (Ricky Williams cover), I've protected my source of information and have gone out of my way to hide Fantasy Football Index from my leagues prying eyes. I've won championships in leagues and money playing Daily Fantasy and your Training Camp updates are the highlight of my summer and a recurring order for me every single season. I just wanted to Thank You and everyone there (customer service, the writers, janitors, secretaries and assistants) for your hard work and dedication.

You are appreciated and valued part of my Fantasy Football Operations department even if i never speak your name in fear that others in my league will discover the wondrous bounty of knowledge contained in your pages…

From the bottom of a champion's heart,

Dave M. Elma, N.Y.

I wanted to send a quick note and thank you for your great magazine! The information you provide, has allowed me to win my league 3 years in a row!

The payoff in the league is not bad, six hundred dollars to be exact, but it is those all important bragging rights that really make it fun!

I epically enjoyed this last issue because you included all the covers for the past 30 years, I did not buy 87, and 88, but all the rest I have purchased.

All I have to do is read and then plug and play, thanks again for doing all the work so I don't have to, except for cash the check of course! Lol.

I will be continue to purchase your magazine, and recommend it to others, although I don't like to give away my secret!

I typically don't write emails to magazines, but after 3 wins in a row, and others which I did not list, I felt like you would like to know.

Thanks again to you and your staff,

Darrell W. Holt, Mich.

I wanted to let you know I finished my season going 16-0 winning my league, breaking every record in our 19 year history along the way. A special thank you to FI for the insightful knowledge as it provided me much help along the way.

Ryan M. Lynnwood, Wash.

You guys do a great job. I got laughed at by a few people at the draft but they're not laughing now. I'm leading the league in record (8-1) and PF thus far.

John W. Aylett, Va.

And a side note… we've got a re-draft 16-team, 20 players drafted league (drafting water boys by the 17^th round) that I've won 2 years in a row. Nobody's ever done that in 21 years… using your cheat sheet. it's an old school league that used to draft out of piles of magazines.

Thanks again,

Todd S. Grand Junction, Colo.

This is my ninth year competing with my two very savey adult children and their 11 regulars to make it a 14 team draft with a $200 bid limit. Your SuperFanatic package has put me into the 6 team play- offs 4 out of the 8 years and there is no way I could compete with these guys without my cheat sheets! They still have no idea how I can be so lucky every year :-) Cheaters do prosper!!!!

Robert A.

I wanted to thank you for such an amazing product and your customer service. I ordered the wrong date for my update and called to correct the mistake. Your customer service person was very kind, helpful and took care of the issue immediately.

I have used your product for the past 18 years or so… Every now and then I will be tempted and look at what other magazines have to offer, quickly realizing no one comes close.

In addition to the magazine, I started buying the weekly updates years ago when my dad taught me a lesson. The draft came and dad was sitting in the 12 hole for his pick. He told me he felt very comfortable about who he was going to select but would not tell me who his prized gem was to be. I was doubtful. The pick? Priest Holmes (his first dynamite year). I remember telling my dad, "that is a decent pick but they plan to pull him at the goal line." Ever the teacher, dad explained he had purchased the Fantasy Football Index update and read Holmes would get the goal line carries. "Update?", I asked. That was 2002 and Holmes had 21 rushing TDs and Dad won the title! Lesson learned.

By the way, I have made the title game for the last 5 years in a row. Thanks for the detailed, hard work and an great product!

David R. Queen Creek, Ariz.

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Factoid

Rookie RBs: lesser college producers

Today's Trivia

Mailbag

Member updates

Follow

Why Choose Fantasy Index?

Quick hits

Your Stuff

In-Depth

Resources

All Products

Help & Support

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Customer Service