I think I’ll be picking David Johnson in a healthy number of leagues. He’s had his issues in recent years, but I think he’s headed for a bounce-back season in Houston.
I was as surprised as anyone when the Texans traded away DeAndre Hopkins and got little in return. I was of the school of thought that the Cardinals were in a pickle with Johnson’s bloated contract (he’s going to make over $11 million this year; only four other running backs are making at least $9 million, and three of them are guys who are light years ahead of Johnson right now – McCaffrey, Zeke, Henry).
But with the deal having been made, it’s grown on me some. The Texans wouldn’t have taken on that deal if they weren’t confident that Johnson would be a productive fit in their offense. He’s only 28, and his recent downturn hasn’t entirely been his fault.
Johnson went over 2,100 run-rec yards in 2016, with 20 touchdowns. The following year he broke his wrist in the opener. In 2018, Arizona’s offense was the worst in the league, with a poor scheme and a disaster of an offensive line. And Johnson last year wasn’t a great fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme.
Despite his struggles, Johnson has been reasonably effective when he’s been playing. Consider, for example, his last games the last two years in which he’s been on the field for at least two thirds of Arizona’s plays. Johnson, for example, was on the field for only a couple of plays against the Giants last year before they pulled him and went with Chase Edmonds. Set those kind of games aside, and look only at the games where Johnson was actually play.
In his last 16 full games (a season’s worth of work) he’s run for 1,004 yards, with an additional 589 yards on 63 receptions, and 10 TDs. Not great, but 100 total yards per game ain’t awful.
| DAVID JOHNSON, LAST TWO YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Score | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
| 2018 | Was. | L 6-24 | 37 | 30 | 67 | 1 |
| 2018 | at LAR | L 0-34 | 48 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| 2018 | Chi. | L 14-16 | 31 | 30 | 61 | 1 |
| 2018 | Sea. | L 17-20 | 71 | 41 | 112 | 1 |
| 2018 | at S.F. | W 28-18 | 55 | 16 | 71 | 2 |
| 2018 | at Min. | L 17-27 | 54 | 15 | 69 | 1 |
| 2018 | Den. | L 10-45 | 39 | 31 | 70 | 0 |
| 2018 | S.F. | W 18-15 | 59 | 41 | 100 | 0 |
| 2018 | at K.C. | L 14-26 | 98 | 85 | 183 | 2 |
| 2018 | Oak. | L 21-23 | 137 | 17 | 154 | 0 |
| 2018 | at LAC | L 10-45 | 63 | 16 | 79 | 0 |
| 2018 | at G.B. | W 20-17 | 69 | 3 | 72 | 0 |
| 2018 | Det. | L 3-17 | 49 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| 2018 | LAR | L 9-31 | 35 | 32 | 67 | 1 |
| 2018 | at Sea. | L 24-27 | 62 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| 2019 | Det. | T 27-27 | 82 | 55 | 137 | 1 |
| 2019 | Car. | L 20-38 | 37 | 28 | 65 | 1 |
| 2019 | Sea. | L 10-27 | 40 | 99 | 139 | 0 |
| 2019 | at Cin. | W 26-23 | 91 | 65 | 156 | 0 |
| 2019 | Atl. | W 34-33 | 34 | 68 | 102 | 2 |
In Houston, Johnson should be helped along more by what’s around him, with defenses more concerned with stopping Deshaun Watson. Carlos Hyde had struggled in recent years and ran for over 1,000 yards in that offense last year. I think Johnson might run better than Hyde, and is definitely more capable as a pass catcher.
I’m not saying Johnson will be a top-10 back. Watson will run in plenty of touchdowns on his own, so I’m not confident Johnson will be a reliable TD scorer. But I think he’s in that next tier of running backs. In a typical 12-team draft, I think he should be selected in the late second or early third round.
—Ian Allan