I keep seeing Bryan Edwards being talking up in training camp stories. He wasn’t even the first receiver the Raiders selected, but from the sounds of it, he could play a sizable role in their offense.
Jon Gruden was bragging about Edwards early in camp, and then I saw a blurb go by, with Derek Carr comparing him to Davante Adams (Carr and Adams played together at Fresno State).
The Raiders, recall, used their first pick on Henry Ruggs, the freaky fast speedster out of Alabama. Ruggs fell just short of John Ross’ record 40 time at the combine. Ruggs is one of the fastest few players in the league, but he hasn’t been as discussed.
But Edwards can do things that Ruggs can’t. He’s huge (6-3, 212), with more ability to win in contested situations. He’s better suited to run through the middle of the field, using his size to box out defensive backs.
Edwards lasted until the third round, but he probably would have gone a round sooner if not for a broken foot that no doubt scared some teams away.
The Raiders selected him in the third round, despite having plenty of needs and having already chosen a wide receiver. I take this as evidence they were really high on him.
Anytime we start venturing into these waters, I think of guys like Allen Robinson and Anquan Boldin. Both went on to have great careers, and both were chosen by teams who previously had already selected other wide receivers.
Could it be a good sign when a team selects a wide receiver in the second or third round (after having already addressed the position)?
It’s easily checked.
In the last 20 years, 21 times a team has done the double-dip on wide receivers in the draft, picking two of them before the end of the third round. In six of these cases (almost 30 percent) the second receiver finished with better numbers in their rookie seasons. That’s using PPR scoring.
Getting an instant impact from a rookie receiver, however, is rare. Of those 42 receivers, only seven put up top-50 stats (PPR numbers) in their first season, and only one of those guys was from the second group.
Boldin was unusually good back in 2003 (3rd overall among receivers in PPR scoring) but no other receiver in that second group ranked higher than 65th.
The track record for the receivers in the first group isn’t great either. With 67 catches, Jordan Matthews finished 2014 as the 25th-best receiving numbers. Hollywood Brown was receiver No. 46 last year. Four others ranked in the 30th. But misses are a lot more common with this group.
| TEAMS PICKING TWO RECEIVERS IN FIRST THREE ROUNDS (last 20 yrs) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Year | First (pick) | No-Yd-TD | Second (pick) | No-Yd-TD |
| Cle. | 2000 | Dennis Northcutt (32) | 39-422-0 | JaJuan Dawson (79) | 9-97-1 |
| Cin. | 2000 | Peter Warrick (4) | 51-592-7 | Ron Dugans (66) | 14-125-1 |
| G.B. | 2002 | Javon Walker (20) | 23-319-1 | Robert Ferguson (41) | 22-293-3 |
| Ariz. | 2003 | Bryant Johnson (17) | 35-438-1 | Anquan Boldin (54) | 101-1377-8 |
| S.F. | 2004 | Rashaun Woods (31) | 7-160-1 | Derrick Hamilton (77) | 0-0-0 |
| Ten. | 2005 | Courtney Roby (68) | 21-289-1 | Brandon Jones (96) | 23-299-2 |
| Pitt. | 2006 | Santonio Holmes (25) | 49-824-3 | Willie Reid (95) | 0-0-0 |
| Cin. | 2008 | Jerome Simpson (46) | 1-2-0 | Andre Caldwell (97) | 11-78-0 |
| Was. | 2008 | Devin Thomas (34) | 15-120-1 | Malcolm Kelly (51) | 3-18-0 |
| Cle. | 2009 | Brian Robiskie (36) | 7-106-0 | Mohamed Massaquoi (50) | 34-624-3 |
| NYG | 2009 | Hakeem Nicks (29) | 47-790-6 | Ramses Barden (85) | 1-16-0 |
| Den. | 2010 | Demaryius Thomas (22) | 22-283-2 | Eric Decker (87) | 6-106-1 |
| Car. | 2010 | Brandon LaFell (78) | 38-468-1 | Armanti Edwards (89) | 0-0-0 |
| Buff. | 2013 | Robert Woods (41) | 40-587-3 | Marquise Goodwin (78) | 17-283-3 |
| St.L. | 2013 | Tavon Austin (8) | 40-418-6 | Stedman Bailey (92) | 17-226-1 |
| Jac. | 2014 | Marqise Lee (39) | 37-422-1 | Allen Robinson (61) | 48-548-2 |
| Phil. | 2014 | Jordan Matthews (42) | 67-872-8 | Josh Huff (86) | 8-98-1 |
| Hou. | 2016 | Will Fuller (21) | 47-635-3 | Braxton Miller (85) | 15-99-1 |
| Ten. | 2017 | Corey Davis (5) | 34-375-0 | Taywan Taylor (72) | 16-231-1 |
| Balt. | 2019 | Marquise Brown (25) | 46-584-7 | Miles Boykin (93) | 13-198-3 |
| S.F. | 2019 | Deebo Samuel (36) | 57-802-6 | Jalen Hurd (67) | 0-0-0 |
| Den. | 2020 | • Jerry Jeudy (15) | ?-?-? | • KJ Hamler (46) | ?-?-? |
| L.V. | 2020 | • Henry Ruggs (12) | ?-?-? | • Bryan Edwards (81) | ?-?-? |
If you’re curious about other cases since the merger in 1970, they are as follows …
| TEAMS PICKING TWO RECEIVERS IN FIRST THREE ROUNDS (last 20 yrs) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Year | First (pick) | No-Yd-TD | Second (pick) | No-Yd-TD |
| S.F. | 1972 | Terry Beasley (19) | 1-20-0 | Allen Dunbar (71) | 0-0-0 |
| NYJ | 1972 | Jerome Barkum (9) | 16-304-2 | Gary Hammond (66) | 0-0-0 |
| Cin. | 1973 | Isaac Curtis (15) | 45-843-9 | Tim George (68) | 2-28-0 |
| Dall. | 1976 | Duke Ferguson (73) | 0-0-0 | Butch Johnson (87) | 5-84-2 |
| NYJ | 1980 | Lam Jones (2) | 25-482-3 | Ralph Clayton (47) | 0-0-0 |
| Cin. | 1981 | David Verser (10) | 6-161-2 | Cris Collinsworth (37) | 67-1009-8 |
| Buff. | 1981 | Byron Franklin (50) | 2-29-0 | Mike Mosley (76) | 0-0-0 |
| N.O. | 1982 | Lindsay Scott (13) | 17-251-0 | Eugene Goodlow (66) | 0-0-0 |
| N.O. | 1982 | Eugene Goodlow (66) | 0-0-0 | Kenny Duckett (68) | 12-196-2 |
| N.E. | 1983 | Darryal Wilson (47) | 0-0-0 | Stephen Starring (74) | 17-389-2 |
| Oak. | 1985 | Jessie Hester (23) | 32-665-5 | Tim Moffett (79) | 5-90-0 |
| NYG | 1987 | Mark Ingram (28) | 2-32-0 | Stephen Baker (83) | 15-277-2 |
| Sea. | 1988 | Brian Blades (49) | 40-682-8 | Tommy Kane (75) | 6-32-0 |
| S.D. | 1988 | Anthony Miller (15) | 36-526-4 | Quinn Early (60) | 29-375-4 |
| LAR | 1988 | Aaron Cox (20) | 28-590-5 | Flipper Anderson (46) | 11-319-0 |
| Phil. | 1990 | Mike Bellamy (50) | 0-0-0 | Fred Barnett (77) | 36-721-8 |
| Sea. | 1991 | Doug Thomas (51) | 3-27-0 | David Daniels (74) | 4-38-0 |
| Pitt. | 1991 | Jeff Graham (46) | 2-21-0 | Ernie Mills (73) | 3-79-2 |
| Det. | 1991 | Herman Moore (10) | 11-135-0 | Reggie Barrett (58) | 0-0-0 |
| K.C. | 1994 | Lake Dawson (92) | 37-537-2 | Chris Penn (96) | 3-24-0 |
| NYJ | 1996 | Keyshawn Johnson (1) | 63-844-8 | Alex Van Dyke (31) | 17-118-1 |
| NYG | 1998 | Joe Jurevicius (55) | 9-146-0 | Brian Alford (70) | 1-11-0 |
| Ind. | 1998 | Jerome Pathon (32) | 50-511-1 | E.G. Green (71) | 15-177-1 |
| Chi. | 1999 | D'Wayne Bates (71) | 2-19-0 | Marty Booker (78) | 19-219-3 |
—Ian Allan