Do you start Joe Burrow in his first game? He was awfully good in college. And looking at recent years, there have been a lot more hits than misses with these kind of quarterbacks.
Cam Newton and Kyler Murray, most notably. They came in and shredded it in their first games (in the same stadium, no less). But there have been plenty of other good debut games.
In the last 10 years, there have been 11 quarterbacks picked either first or second. Seven of those guys threw multiple touchdowns in their first game. Only one didn’t throw a touchdown (Jared Goff).
In the case of Burrow, he’s going to a team that’s got some receivers, and they’ll throw it around some. Andy Dalton averaged 282 passing yards in the first half of last year.
All reports suggest Burrow has been everything the Bengals were hoping for. And he’s also got some running ability. He played five games against top-10 opponents last year, and he averaged 45 rushing yards in those games, with 2 TDs.
Plenty of good quarterback options available, of course, but I’m not opposed to sticking Burrow out there.
| HERALDED ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS, FIRST GAME | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (pick) | Opp | Result | Com | Att | Yards | TD | Int |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. (1) | Ariz. | L 13-17 | 32 | 55 | 253 | 1 | 3 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. (1) | at Ariz. | L 21-28 | 24 | 37 | 422 | 2 | 1 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III, Was. (2) | at N.O. | W 40-32 | 19 | 26 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. (1) | at Chi. | L 21-41 | 23 | 45 | 309 | 1 | 3 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. (2) | at T.B. | W 42-14 | 13 | 15 | 209 | 4 | 0 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. (1) | Tenn. | L 14-42 | 16 | 33 | 210 | 2 | 2 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. (2) | Clev. | W 29-10 | 22 | 37 | 278 | 2 | 0 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR (1) | Mia. | L 10-14 | 17 | 31 | 134 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. (2) | Min. | L 17-20 | 12 | 25 | 128 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. (1) | at Oak. | L 42-45 | 21 | 41 | 295 | 2 | 2 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. (1) | Det. | T 27-27 | 29 | 54 | 308 | 2 | 1 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. (1) | LAC | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Here are the first-game stats for other first-round quarterbacks starting their initial game in the last 10 years. The track record is not as good. Only four of these 19 threw multiple touchdowns in their first game.
But skimming over this list, most of these quarterbacks have very little in common with Joe Burrow. Certainly not Tebow, Ponder, Locker, Gabbert, Weeden, Manuel, Manziel, Lynch and Bortles.
| OTHER FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, FIRST GAME | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (pick) | Opp | Result | Com | Att | Yards | TD | Int |
| 2010 | Tim Tebow, Den. (25) | at Oak. | L 23-39 | 8 | 16 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
| 2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. (12) | G.B. | L 27-33 | 13 | 32 | 219 | 2 | 2 |
| 2011 | Jake Locker, Ten. (8) | N.E. | L 14-34 | 23 | 32 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. (10) | at Car. | L 10-16 | 12 | 21 | 139 | 1 | 1 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. (8) | at Hou. | L 10-30 | 20 | 36 | 219 | 0 | 3 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. (22) | Phil. | L 16-17 | 12 | 35 | 118 | 0 | 4 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. (16) | N.E. | L 21-23 | 18 | 27 | 150 | 2 | 0 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. (3) | at S.D. | L 14-33 | 29 | 37 | 254 | 1 | 2 |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. (22) | Cin. | L 0-30 | 10 | 18 | 80 | 0 | 2 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. (32) | Atl. | W 41-28 | 19 | 30 | 317 | 0 | 0 |
| 2016 | Paxton Lynch, Den. (26) | Atl. | L 16-23 | 23 | 35 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
| 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. (10) | at Den. | W 27-24 | 22 | 35 | 284 | 0 | 1 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. (12) | at Cin. | W 13-9 | 15 | 24 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ (3) | at Det. | W 48-17 | 16 | 21 | 198 | 2 | 1 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. (7) | LAC | L 20-31 | 18 | 33 | 245 | 1 | 2 |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. (10) | Sea. | L 17-20 | 15 | 27 | 180 | 1 | 0 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. (32) | Cin. | W 24-21 | 13 | 19 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG (6) | at T.B. | W 32-31 | 23 | 36 | 336 | 2 | 0 |
| 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. (15) | at Buff. | L 9-24 | 15 | 22 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
—Ian Allan