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Goal-line passing

Tannehill has been league's best near the end zone

Who’s ready to admit that Ryan Tannehill is a really good quarterback? They put him in the starting lineup last October, and he got on a little hot streak. We’re now halfway through this season, and he hasn’t really cooled off.

Tannehill in his 10 starts last year averaged 260 passing yards, with 22 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions.

This year he’s sitting at 19 touchdowns versus only 3 picks after eight games. (He’s averaging 248 passing yards). So in his last 18 games, he’s averaged 254 passing yards (about average), but with 41 touchdowns versus only 8 interceptions. (And also 5 rushing touchdowns in those 18 games.)

He’ll be facing a good Colts defense tonight, which is worrying, but Tannehill has been good enough that maybe you just use him anyway.

It’s been inside the 10-yard line where Tannehill has really excelled. Some combination of Tannehill being a capable passer and the scheme that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has put together. With the success the Titans have had over the last year, I expect Smith will be interviewing for head coaching jobs in January.

Tannehill last year completed a league-high 74 percent of his passes when he was inside the 10. In that part of the field, only Lamar Jackson threw touchdowns on a higher percentage of his pass attempts. (Jackson was phenomenal in 2019 but has cooled considerably.)

Tannehill in 2020 is doing all the same kind of stuff. He’s completed 75 percent of his passes inside the 10, and with a league-high 65 percent of those plays resulting in scores.

The chart below show the numbers at the halfway point of the season. These aren’t official NFL stats but are instead home-cooked numbers. They include 2-point conversions, which aren’t technically considered plays but are certainly meaningful – plays where an offense is on the 2-yard line and needing to put the ball in the end zone. So on the “EZ” number, it includes not only touchdown passes but also successful 2-point conversion plays.

Four quarterbacks have been able to successfully put the ball in the end zone on over 60 percent of their pass plays inside the 10 (and that’s including sacks): Tannehill, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins and Ben Roethlisberger.

Five quarterbacks haven’t been able to successfully generate scores on more than a quarter of their pass plays in that part of the field: Nick Mullen, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott and Nick Foles.

PASSING INSIDE THE 10
playerattcompctEZintskEZ%
Tannehill, Ten.201575%131065%
Murray, Ariz.161169%100063%
Cousins, Min.161169%100063%
Big Ben, Pitt.13862%80062%
Wentz, Phil.191579%120160%
Mayfield, Clev.171165%100059%
Brees, N.O.141071%80057%
Mahomes, K.C.302273%170057%
A-Rod, G.B.272281%150056%
Jackson, Balt.151173%90253%
TB12, T.B.301860%150050%
Carr, L.V.181267%90050%
J.Allen, Buff.251664%120146%
Let Russ Cook, Sea.332061%153045%
Fitzmagic, Mia.191158%91145%
Lock, Den.10660%40040%
Herbert, LAC11655%50238%
Old Man Rivers, Ind.12758%50138%
Stafford, Det.221255%90238%
Goff, LAR12650%51236%
Burrow, Cin.211152%82333%
Matty Ice, Atl.22941%81233%
Teddy B, Car.191158%60130%
Minshew, Jac.221150%60126%
Nick Foles, Chi.18950%51225%
Dak, Dall.12758%31025%
Watson, Hou.241146%60223%
D.Jones, NYG241146%42017%
Mullen, S.F.15960%20013%

The main chart shows players with at least 10 pass plays. Others …

FEWER THAN 10 ATTEMPTS
playerattcompctEZintskEZ%
Garoppolo, S.F.9556%40044%
Newton, N.E.7457%20125%
T-Biscuit, Chi.7457%30043%
Darnold, NYJ7114%0100%
Haskins, Was.4250%10217%
K.Allen, Was.6233%10017%
Dalton, Dall.4125%10120%
Driskel, Den.4250%20140%
Tua, Mia.5240%20040%
Flacco, NYJ500%0000%
Tyrod, LAC300%0000%
Beathard, S.F.3133%0000%
Hoyer, N.E.11100%0010%
G.Gilbert, Dall.200%0100%
Stidham, N.E.2150%10050%
The Nooch, Dall.00--0010%
Brissett, Ind.00--0010%
Robinson, Jac.00--0010%
Henne, K.C.00--0010%
Rypien, Den.11100%100100%
Daniel, Det.11100%100100%
Cobb, Hou.100%0000%
Luton, Jac.100%0000%
Hurts, Phil.100%0000%
49ers holder100%0000%
Titans holder100%0000%

—Ian Allan

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