Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: What the heck happened to bumbling Alvin Kamara? Is Devontae Booker the key sleeper for Week 13 (or a wildly stupid pick)? Redrafter vs. Weekly rankings. 2021 free agents. And more.
Question 1
Do we blame a who or a what for Alvin Kamara's fall from grace? The foot or Taysom? This is money time Ian and I need your best here. Is Murray the guy until Brees comes back or chalk it up to just two bad weeks? Alvin will be singing us happy Christmas songs again soon? The lack of catches is most disturbing.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
I think the offense has changed. When Drew Brees was starting, Kamara was the key piece on the chessboard (particularly with Michael Thomas out). They would slide him around in different spots, with Brees having the know-how, accuracy and timing to get him the ball. With Hill at quarterback, they’re doing more things with his mobility – zone-read and keeper plays, and Hill making throws after scrambles. Hill has started two games, and Kamara has caught 1 pass for minus-2 yards in those games (with 2 other passes falling incomplete). When Brees was at quarterback, Kamara was on pace to set the all-time record for catches by a running back in a season. It’s different now. But Kamara still has those great hands, and every week is different, with the possibility the Saints will add something new to the offense. I’m not counting on Kamara finishing with 60-70 receiving yards, but I would be leery of slotting him behind too many other running backs. I wouldn’t be considering starting Latavius Murray ahead of him.
Question 2
Why would you rank Booker so high? That’s insane.
Dave Riether (Oreland, PA)
If Josh Jacobs is out, I believe Devontae Booker will put up top-10 numbers in Week 13. That’s a team that likes to run the ball. They ran 8th in rushing, and they’re playing against a winless opponent. And I don’t know there will be any dropoff at the position. Booker has been playing only sparingly, so he has fresh legs, and he’s been a lot more effective than Jacobs this year. Jacobs is averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. Booker has averaged 5.5 with his 59 attempts. If Jacobs is inactive on Sunday, I will be very interested in putting Booker on the field.
Question 3
I have enjoyed using your product for many years, especially the Redrafter. However, I have noticed lately that the Redrafter rankings for defenses are not as useful as they used to be. Take for instance the Colts, who have consistently ranked highly in the Redrafter this season, and then the weekly rankings come out and they are not even listed in your top 18? How can a defense ranked so highly in the Redrafter be unstartable from week to week? I have been streaming defenses more than ever this season, and I am wondering if we are at a point where it does not make sense to use the same defense from week to week.
Jason Minke (New London, MN)
The Colts have done some good things defensively. Including special teams, they’ve scored 5 TDs. They’ve intercepted 12 passes. They completely shut down the Vikings in a game earlier this year, and they’ve had some recent success against the Packers and Titans (in the Nashville game, but not on Sunday). Only four defenses have allowed fewer years, and it’s a top-10 defense in points allowed. So if you want to just roll out a defense week to week, they would be a candidate. And they’ve got 4-7 Houston in two of their next three games, which seems like a pretty good situation. But I was writing up this game on Tuesday, and as I looked at the numbers, they didn’t turn out as well as you might think. Deshaun Watson is really balling this year. He’s played six games in a row without throwing an interception. He’s taken 28 sacks, which is below average, but almost half of those came in the first three weeks – just 15 sacks in his last eight games. And while the Colts are good, it’s not a great pass-rush team (23 sacks in 11 games). So I can’t say with great conviction that the Colts are the team you need to have in your lineup this week. You can start them, and maybe they’ll come through for you (the Texans are pretty lousy, after all, and just lost Will Fuller). But I wouldn’t be opposed to going the streaming route and getting a lesser defense in a more favorable situation. With these rankings that go out, the Tuesday “Redrafter” rankings tend to be the more general, “This is what these guys usually are” rankings. When Andy looks over the 32 defenses, he’ll move a few of them a little higher or a little lower if he likes what he sees coming up in the next 3-4 games (at this point in the year). But it’s on Wednesday that we’ve had the opportunity to take a longer look at each matchup, putting together more carefully crafted projections.
Question 4
I picked up Wayne Gallman to pair with James Robinson in my Dynasty League. Myles Gaskin will be activated in week 13. Should I cut Gallman for Gaskin for this season? Should I keep Gaskin for 2021 (which means cutting James Robinson)?
Howie Fishman (Hermosa Beach, CA)
James Robinson is your top guy. He’s not going anywhere. He needs to be in place for 2021. With the other two guys, if we’re looking at just right now, I would go with Gallman. He’s the clear starter right now, and he’s playing well – one of two running backs in the league who’s scored touchdowns in five straight games. Gaskin did some nice things earlier in the year, but I’m not positive how he fits in going forward (either right now or in 2020). They’ve got some other backs. Salvon Ahmed (who backed up Gaskin at Washington) had a nice game filling in but has a shoulder injury. I would expect they’ll obtain a notable running back in the offseason.
Question 5
For those of us thinking about Keepers for 2021, could you look into your crystal ball and let us know what you think about the Chiefs’ and Packers' running back situations for next season? Does LeVeon Bell leave as a free agent, with Damien Williams returning to split carries with CEH? Does Aaron Jones and/or Jamal Williams leave as free agents, with AJ Dillon eventually recovering from COVID and taking on a bigger role?
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
LeVeon Bell signed a modest contract with Kansas City. Heading into 2021, I would think he’d be more interested in generating more dollars. I expect he’ll be signing elsewhere, assuming he can find a team interested in paying him (and I don’t know if that’s going to happen – Bell could sure use a good game or two to reestablish himself as a big-time running back). Most likely, I think, it will be Clyde Edwards-Helaire starting for KC next year, with Damien Williams spelling him off the bench. With the Packers, both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are in the final years of their contracts. I would guess that one of them will sign a contract with another team, with AJ Dillon then promoted to be a more notable contributor in 2021.
Question 6
Would love your thoughts about two fantasy "stars" that I'm losing my shirt with: Ezekiel Elliott and Cam Newton. They continue to put up terrible numbers. When should I give up on these guys?
Joe Van Koevering (St Petersburg, FL)
Elliott hasn’t looked “elite” in a lot of games. There have been multiple weeks where their backup running back, Tony Pollard, has seemed to have more juice. I would be very leery of using Elliott this week at Baltimore. Week 14 at Cincinnati, however, could be alright. With Newton, you have to play for the rushing production. He’s averaging 39 rushing yards, and he’s scored 9 TDs on his own. There are times that lifts him to serviceable production. But there are too many weeks where it looks like he simply isn’t good enough as a passer, with too many throws that are late or off target.
Question 7
My team is good (with your help) with the exception of my quarterback. I was ok until Dak Prescott went down. 10 team league (forced to carry 2 qbs, play 1). I currently have Derek Carr and Cam Newtown and they have been killing me. Best available is Kirk Cousins who has put up points each week. I'll be replacing Newton with Cousins, hopefully. At this point in the season there aren't many under the radar qbs available for the playoff push (B. Mayfield and and an injured Daniel Jones). My only concern with Cousins is I have both Cook and Justin Jefferson. Any recommendations on how to play it with the available Qbs? Do you see Carr turning it around i know he is ranked approximately at 10 in the redrafter.
Jonathan Sheppard (Millville, NJ)
I would be a little nervous putting Kirk Cousins on the field this week. I think the Vikings will be able to pile up big rushing numbers (Jacksonville ranks only 29th in run defense). Minnesota has run for more than 160 yards five times this year, and Cousins has averaged only 225 passing yards in those games. I think we could be looking at one of those kind of games. Better to get him in a week where the opponent has some chance of slowing down Dalvin Cook some. In the last five games that Minnesota has run for fewer than 140 yards, Cousins has averaged 274 passing yards. (Not a big difference in touchdowns, at least – about 2 TD passes per game whether Cook is rolling or not).