Some discussion at the site this week about the ReDrafter, and specifically defensive ordering. As we've noted, it's difficult doing a ReDrafter with so few games left in the season, and figuring out how to factor in schedule. Below, though, I'll take a whirl at doing just that.
Most of the difficulty is figuring out how to weigh different weeks with just a few games left. For some teams Week 13 is most important -- gotta get a win to get in the playoffs. For others it's Week 15; already in the playoffs, wanting to get a great matchup for then. But whatever. For the purposes of this, I'm going to look at which defenses seem to have the MOST good matchups the next four weeks of the season. I'm ignoring Week 17, which isn't used in most fantasy leagues. Some do, but I'm sorry, this can't be perfect for everyone.
Sacks and takeaways are the key elements in most leagues, so another step I've taken is just getting rid of the defenses worst at both. If you're in the bottom 12 or so of the league's 32 teams in both recording sacks and forcing takeaways, you're gone. So goodbye, Jaguars, Bengals, Lions, Raiders, Jets, Vikings and Titans. We don't care about your remaining schedule, you don't do enough to make the cut. I'm also dumping the Texans, Chargers, Panthers, Cowboys and Falcons. Maybe they sneak up to average in one of the two areas, but are bottom 10 in the other. You don't want to be counting on either Texas team in the fantasy playoffs, just because they had a good pass rush week somewhere along the line.
That gives us a manageable 20 fantasy defenses. Here's how those teams look over the next four weeks. In the table, matchups considered GREAT are against teams currently ranking in the top 12 in both sacks and takeaways allowed (there are five such teams - Eagles, Bengals, Washington, Cowboys, Bears). Matchups considered GOOD are against teams ranking in the top 12 in one or the other areas (there are 12 such teams). Great matchups are in bold, Good matchups are in italics. Teams are ordered by the most Total Great or Good matchups, with ties broken by who has more perceived Great matchups.
| DEFENSES REMAINING SCHEDULES | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Sk | Int | FR | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Great | Good | Tot |
| Seattle | 31 | 10 | 6 | NYG | NYJ | WAS | LAR | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Chicago | 21 | 6 | 5 | DET | HOU | MIN | JAX | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Arizona | 28 | 10 | 4 | LAR | NYG | PHI | SF | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Baltimore | 27 | 6 | 11 | DAL | CLE | JAX | NYG | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| New Orleans | 33 | 13 | 5 | ATL | PHI | KC | MIN | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Buffalo | 30 | 8 | 9 | SF | PIT | DEN | NE | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| L.A. Rams | 34 | 11 | 7 | AZ | NE | NYJ | SEA | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay | 34 | 14 | 6 | BYE | MIN | ATL | DET | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 41 | 16 | 7 | WAS | BUF | CIN | IND | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| San Francisco | 20 | 10 | 6 | BUF | WAS | DAL | AZ | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Green Bay | 24 | 7 | 5 | PHI | DET | CAR | TEN | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Miami | 25 | 11 | 8 | CIN | KC | NE | LV | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Cleveland | 27 | 9 | 8 | TEN | BALT | NYG | NYJ | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Indianapolis | 23 | 12 | 5 | HOU | LV | HOU | PIT | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Kansas City | 20 | 12 | 5 | DEN | MIA | NO | ATL | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Washington | 36 | 10 | 3 | PIT | SF | SEA | CAR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Philadelphia | 36 | 3 | 8 | GB | NO | AZ | DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| N.Y. Giants | 27 | 9 | 9 | SEA | ARZ | CLE | BALT | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| New England | 15 | 12 | 4 | LAC | LAR | MIA | BUF | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Denver | 31 | 8 | 3 | KC | CAR | BUF | LAC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
So when looking at defenses for the rest of the season (through Week 16), if you want one that you can plug in every week or most weeks, consider Seattle, Chicago, Arizona, Baltimore and New Orleans. The Bills, the Rams, the Bucs (aside from that pesky bye this week), the Steelers and the 49ers also look good. The Packers look great this week, decent next week, and not so much in Weeks 15 and 16.
--Andy Richardson