The Broncos are occasionally connected to Deshaun Watson. They're a team with some offensive talent at the skill positions and a credible defense, but they've got a question mark at quarterback. Former second-rounder Drew Lock started most of the season, and his NFL future is very much in doubt.
He had the occasional good performance, but at no point did Lock make a strong case to be the team's long-term starter. Most notably, he threw too many interceptions -- 15 while starting only 13 games. That's one of the dozen highest Year 2 totals by any quarterback selected in the first two rounds over the last 20 years.
Several of the quarterbacks who threw more went on to have good or great careers: Eli Manning and Drew Brees, most notably, and also Carson Palmer. Ryan Tannehill is having a nice second career in Tennessee. But several others washed out as starters fairly quickly. Think Joey Harrington, Blake Bortles and Vince Young. Lock, it's clear, could go either way.
Table shows the 20 highest interception totals in their second seasons by quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds this century. Last three columns show their yards, touchdowns and interception totals the next season.
Some of those quarterbacks didn't start much by year 3, for one reason or another. Benched, replaced, dumped. One of those will likely be Lock's fate if Denver trades for someone. Of the ones who stuck around to start most of the next season, most either got those interception numbers down (Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield), or weren't long for the starting job (Sanchez, the elder Carr brother). I see only 2-3 guys who endured in the league after also throwing a bunch of picks in year 3 -- Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton. Brees did, but he eventually got those issues under control.
| QUARTERBACKS THROWING 13-PLUS INTS IN YEAR 2, ONE YEAR LATER | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Player | Yards | TD | INT | Next(Yds) | Next(TD) | Next(Int) |
| 2019 | Drew Lock, Den. | 2933 | 16 | 15 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 3669 | 27 | 16 | 4293 | 33 | 20 |
| 2008 | Chad Henne, Mia. | 2878 | 12 | 14 | 3301 | 15 | 19 |
| 2004 | Eli Manning, NYG | 3762 | 24 | 17 | 3244 | 24 | 18 |
| 2006 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 3497 | 20 | 14 | 4526 | 25 | 18 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 3291 | 17 | 13 | 3474 | 26 | 18 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 4428 | 35 | 18 | 3905 | 23 | 16 |
| 2001 | Drew Brees, S.D. | 3284 | 17 | 16 | 2108 | 11 | 15 |
| 2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 2013 | 9 | 13 | 3531 | 16 | 14 |
| 2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 2880 | 17 | 22 | 3047 | 19 | 12 |
| 2003 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 2897 | 18 | 18 | 3836 | 32 | 12 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 3913 | 24 | 17 | 4045 | 27 | 12 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 4090 | 28 | 18 | 3504 | 19 | 11 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 3924 | 19 | 13 | 2208 | 9 | 11 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 2916 | 22 | 14 | 3705 | 28 | 9 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 3827 | 22 | 21 | 3563 | 26 | 8 |
| 2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 3987 | 32 | 13 | 3937 | 28 | 6 |
| 2005 | Alex Smith, S.F. | 2890 | 16 | 16 | 914 | 2 | 4 |
| 2006 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 2546 | 9 | 17 | 219 | 1 | 2 |
| 2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 2525 | 13 | 13 | 265 | 2 | 1 |
If Denver can land Watson, obviously, that's a move worth making. But if not, I think they should give Lock another year in the lineup. He'll have Courtland Sutton back; that will help. There's still time for him to at least get on the Dalton or Tannehill track -- a guy who can be successful if enough other stuff is right around him.
Question is if the Broncos will have the patience to let him work through the mistakes.
--Andy Richardson