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Strength of schedule

Strength of schedule using oddsmakers' lines

I’m not a big fan of Strength of Schedule, but if we’re using it, it makes more sense to use projected wins and losses, rather than what teams did last year. And that being the case, there’s a couple of teams that are supposed to play difficult schedules who instead should be helped along by easier schedules.

The Browns and Vikings specifically. Using the generally accepted practices of plugging in wins and losses from the previous season, they’re supposed to play bottom-10 schedules (with Minnesota way down at 28th). But if we instead use the expected wins and losses for each teams, based on how people are currently wagering on teams, the Browns should play the league’s 2nd-easiest schedule, while the Vikings clock in at 8th.

The 49ers, using this adjusted system, come out with the easiest schedule of all. Using the last year’s win totals system, San Francisco ranked only 12th in strength of schedule.

The Texans were lining up for long season, and it looks like they’re also going to be hurt by scheduling. By the numbers, they’re supposed to have the league’s hardest schedule, with opponents in line to finish with a combined record of about 152-137.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (oddsmaker numbers)
TeamWinLossPctPreviousRk
San Francisco136.1152.9.471132-138-212
•Cleveland138.4150.6.479140-130-224
Tampa Bay139.8149.2.484126-145-14
Buffalo140.3148.7.485130-142-09
Dallas140.5148.5.486122-148-22
Denver140.8148.2.487127-143-25
Philadelphia141.0148.0.488117-155-01
•Minnesota141.1147.9.488144-127-128
Jacksonville142.6146.4.493133-138-115
Miami143.1145.9.495128-144-06
Seattle143.3145.7.496139-133-021
Indianapolis143.5145.5.496130-142-010
Atlanta143.6145.4.497123-148-13
Carolina144.0145.0.498128-143-17
LA Chargers144.2144.8.499133-137-216
NY Jets144.2144.8.499132-138-213
Kansas City144.4144.6.500138-132-222
NY Giants144.9144.1.502128-142-28
Green Bay145.1143.9.502147-124-129
New Orleans145.2143.8.503131-140-111
Baltimore145.7143.3.504152-118-231
Chicago145.7143.3.504149-122-130
Tennessee146.2142.8.506138-134-019
Arizona146.4142.6.506138-134-020
LA Rams146.4142.6.507140-132-023
New England146.8142.2.508133-139-014
Detroit146.9142.1.508143-127-226
Washington148.6140.4.514136-134-217
Cincinnati149.7139.3.518144-128-027
Pittsburgh151.4137.6.524155-115-232
Las Vegas152.0137.0.526142-128-225
Houston152.2136.8.527137-135-018

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index