I am intrigued by the Jets. With the way their team is coming together, I think there will be some good running back games there. There will be at least some weeks where there are running backs on that roster who dramatically outperform where they’re selected in fantasy drafts.
They’ve got a new coaching staff, with Adam Gase’s dysfunctional group replaced by a crew that should have a much better feel of how to put together a running game. Mike LaFleur (the new offensive coordinator) has worked with other coaches who have put together successful running attacks in the past – his older brother Matt and Kyle Shanahan. The Jets have also hired John Benton, who spent the last four seasons as San Francisco’s offensive line coach – he’s good.
The offensive line looks dramatically better. They’ve hit on a big picks in the first round the last two years, with massive Mekhi Becton starting at left tackle and Alijah Vera-Tucker playing next to him. It might not be long before Vera-Tucker emerges as one of the league’s top half-dozen guards.
And it’s becoming apparent that the Jets aren’t going to bring in a can’t-miss kind of running back who’ll be their clear-cut No. 1 guy. Instead, they’ve got a group of guys who’ll be competing for touches.
Ty Johnson and Josh Adams had some moments of success last year. Johnson ran for 104 yards on 22 carries in a game against the Raiders. Adams carried the ball only 29 times all year, but he averaged 5.4 yards per attempt – he’s their biggest back (6-2, 225). Both Johnson and Adams should have played more last year.
They’ve got LaMical Perine coming back, but he was underwhelming last year. I don’t think he’s even the league’s best Perine right now (I prefer Samaje Perine, as the pretty certain No. 2 in Cincinnati). Tevin Coleman has the most experience working with this coaching staff, but he’s been pretty underwhelming in the last year and a half. Since running for 105 yards and 4 TDs in a win over Carolina halfway through the 2019 season, Coleman in his last 17 games has carried 94 times for only 265 yards, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry.
I think Michael Carter will be their first Jets running back selected in most drafts. He’s on the small side (5-8, 201), but he was very productive at North Carolina as part of a one-two punch with Javonte Williams. Carter ran for 1,245 yards and 9 TDs last year while averaging 8.0 yards per carry. He doesn’t have special speed (he runs about 4.5) but has good elusiveness to make people miss. The Jets picked him up early in the fourth round, as the fifth running back selected.
I have looked at some of the overall numbers, and you don’t often see running backs like Carter putting up huge numbers. In the last 10 years, only 23 running backs who don’t weigh over 200 pounds have put up 1,000-plus total yards (rushing and receiving), with only another 10 making it over 900 yards. Only 23 have finished with top-20 PPR numbers (among running backs).
Of those 33 smaller running backs who had some success, 12 were chosen in the first three rounds of the drafts. Carter doesn’t fit in that group. Of the 33, only two were able to do it in their running season, and only six were able to go for 1,000-plus in their second year. So if you’re playing the comps game, hard to say with much conviction that Carter will put up more than 800 yards in his first year – and that’s if he delivers and is what the Jets were hoping for.
But with what the Jets have put in place, I would have some interest in selecting Carter in the late rounds. There would be value, I think, in having him around in September, with the potential he might develop into something of value.
| SMALL BACKS WITH BIG NUMBERS (last 10 years) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (Rd) | Wt | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | PPR |
| 2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. (3) | 199 | 1,287 | 693 | 1,980 | 19 | 1 |
| 2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. (2) | 195 | 1,364 | 704 | 2,068 | 15 | 1 |
| 2019 | Austin Ekeler, LAC (FA) | 200 | 557 | 993 | 1,550 | 11 | 4 |
| 2012 | Ray Rice, Balt. (2) | 195 | 1,143 | 478 | 1,621 | 10 | 4 |
| 2011 | Darren Sproles, N.O. (4) | 190 | 603 | 710 | 1,313 | 10 | 5 |
| 2012 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. (1) | 194 | 1,244 | 459 | 1,703 | 8 | 6 |
| 2014 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. (3) | 199 | 1,033 | 291 | 1,324 | 14 | 7 |
| 2014 | Justin Forsett, Balt. (7) | 195 | 1,266 | 263 | 1,529 | 8 | 8 |
| 2012 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. (3) | 199 | 1,509 | 236 | 1,745 | 6 | 9 |
| 2013 | Chris Johnson, Ten. (1) | 195 | 1,077 | 345 | 1,422 | 10 | 9 |
| 2015 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. (FA) | 200 | 336 | 755 | 1,091 | 9 | 3 |
| 2018 | •Tarik Cohen, Chi. (4) | 191 | 444 | 725 | 1,169 | 8 | 11 |
| 2011 | Chris Johnson, Ten. (1) | 195 | 1,047 | 418 | 1,465 | 4 | 9 |
| 2013 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. (FA) | 200 | 429 | 605 | 1,034 | 8 | 12 |
| 2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. (FA) | 190 | 1,037 | 241 | 1,278 | 10 | 13 |
| 2012 | Chris Johnson, Ten. (1) | 195 | 1,243 | 232 | 1,475 | 6 | 12 |
| 2012 | Darren Sproles, N.O. (4) | 190 | 244 | 667 | 911 | 8 | 13 |
| 2017 | Dion Lewis, N.E. (5) | 195 | 896 | 214 | 1,110 | 10 | 13 |
| 2019 | •Phillip Lindsay, Den. (FA) | 190 | 1,011 | 196 | 1,207 | 7 | 20 |
| 2011 | Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (7) | 195 | 659 | 267 | 926 | 11 | 18 |
| 2020 | J.D. McKissic, Was. (FA) | 195 | 365 | 589 | 954 | 3 | 17 |
| 2012 | Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (7) | 195 | 1,015 | 245 | 1,260 | 6 | 20 |
| 2013 | Ray Rice, Balt. (2) | 195 | 660 | 321 | 981 | 4 | 22 |
| 2014 | •Andre Ellington, Ariz. (6) | 200 | 660 | 395 | 1,055 | 5 | 19 |
| 2018 | •Austin Ekeler, LAC (FA) | 200 | 554 | 404 | 958 | 6 | 25 |
| 2019 | Raheem Mostert, S.F. (FA) | 197 | 772 | 180 | 952 | 10 | 26 |
| 2020 | •Myles Gaskin, Mia. (7) | 200 | 584 | 388 | 972 | 5 | 25 |
| 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. (6) | 200 | 652 | 371 | 1,023 | 4 | 26 |
| 2020 | Austin Ekeler, LAC (FA) | 200 | 530 | 403 | 933 | 3 | 27 |
| 2018 | •Matt Breida, S.F. (FA) | 190 | 814 | 261 | 1,075 | 5 | 26 |
| 2015 | Ronnie Hillman, Den. (3) | 200 | 863 | 111 | 974 | 7 | 25 |
| 2018 | Dion Lewis, Ten. (5) | 195 | 517 | 400 | 917 | 2 | 27 |
| 2013 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. (1) | 194 | 933 | 185 | 1,118 | 2 | 27 |
—Ian Allan