Factoid

August 15, 2021

Losing vs. passing

Do lesser teams put up better passing stats?

I have heard the theory floated a few times over the last month that it can be a good thing to pick pass catchers from lesser teams. If a team is trailing often, the idea goes, it will be passing more, resulting in more catches, yards and touchdowns. It got me wondering if there’s any truth in the notion.

There are different ways to look at this. One way (which I won’t do right now) would be to look at all 8-8 teams of the last 20 years. Look at the stats from winning and losing games and measure which was greater. I might run those numbers at some point.

We could also look at wide receivers finishing with top-10 numbers, then look at how many came from teams with losing records. Last year, there were three: Calvin Ridley (Falcons went 4-12), Justin Jefferson (7-9) and Adam Thielen (7-9).

But for now, I’m going to look at the correlation between passing production and win-loss records. That is, you look at the teams putting up the best passing stats each year, then look at how many games that team won. If we’re expecting teams like the Texans and Lions (and to a lesser degree, Falcons, Saints, Broncos, Jets) to be bad, then how many teams like that show up among the passing production leaders?

Below see the top 100 passing teams of the last 10 years. That represents almost a third of all teams (100 out of 320). And I’m ranking them by fantasy production using PPR scoring (1 point per catch, 1 point for every 10 yards and 6 points for TDs).

Of these 100 teams, 13 finished with fewer than 6 wins. That’s about one team per year, and all of those teams finished at either 4-12 or 5-11. (So no teams way down in the 3-13 or 2-14 hole.) I’ve got those bad teams in bold.

Another 19 teams finished with losing records but weren’t truly awful. These teams (about two per season) all finished with 6-7 wins. These teams are tagged with black dots.

The remaining 68 teams (just over two thirds) finished 8-8 or better.

Note that of the seven teams in the top 20 that finished with losing records, all come from the NFC South, with the New Orleans Saints leading the way, showing up four times. They almost shouldn’t count, with them having Sean Payton, Drew Brees and one of the most innovative offenses in football (they don’t fit the profile of being a prolific passing team because they’re behind, methinks).

Anyway, numbers are below. Mull them over and let me know what you think in the comments section.

On the list, by the way, I went not with the top 10 teams from each season (though maybe I should have, to better account for stat inflation) but simply the highest-producing passing teams (I haven’t totaled up the numbers for each season, but I’m sure there are some years where there are more than 10 teams and some where there are fewer).

TOP 100 PASSING TEAMS OF LAST 10 YEARS
Year	Team	Record	Rec	Yards	TD	PPR
2013	Denver	13-3	461	5,572	55	1348.2
2011	New Orleans	13-3	472	5,505	46	1298.5
2016	• New Orleans	7-9	472	5,258	38	1225.8
2012	• New Orleans	7-9	423	5,187	43	1199.7
2011	Green Bay	15-1	376	5,161	51	1198.1
2018	Kansas City	12-4	385	5,126	50	1197.6
2013	New Orleans	11-5	446	5,162	39	1196.2
2018	Pittsburgh	9-6-1	459	5,174	35	1186.4
2011	Detroit	10-6	423	5,071	41	1176.1
2015	• New Orleans	7-9	460	5,205	32	1172.5
2011	New England	13-3	402	5,257	39	1161.7
2020	Kansas City	14-2	420	5,005	40	1160.5
2018	Tampa Bay	5-11	408	5,358	36	1159.8
2014	Indianapolis	11-5	410	4,894	42	1151.4
2020	Tampa Bay	11-5	410	4,776	42	1139.6
2018	• Atlanta	7-9	428	4,949	36	1138.9
2019	• Atlanta	7-9	459	5,049	29	1137.9
2014	• New Orleans	7-9	456	4,764	33	1130.4
2020	Buffalo	13-3	410	4,786	40	1128.6
2018	Indianapolis	10-6	432	4,595	39	1125.5
2015	San Diego	4-12	442	4,855	30	1107.5
2012	Dallas	8-8	434	4,992	29	1107.2
2014	Denver	12-4	399	4,661	40	1105.1
2015	New England	12-4	404	4,812	36	1101.2
2016	Atlanta	11-5	374	4,960	38	1098.0
2019	• Tampa Bay	7-9	382	5,127	33	1092.7
2014	Pittsburgh	11-5	411	4,825	33	1091.5
2012	Denver	13-3	402	4,671	37	1091.1
2012	Detroit	4-12	445	5,139	22	1090.9
2012	New England	12-4	402	4,844	34	1090.4
2020	Green Bay	13-3	372	4,299	48	1089.9
2016	Green Bay	10-6	403	4,445	40	1087.5
2012	Atlanta	13-3	422	4,719	32	1085.9
2019	New Orleans	13-3	418	4,431	36	1077.1
2020	Houston	4-12	383	4,843	33	1065.3
2015	• Detroit	7-9	420	4,463	33	1064.3
2019	Dallas	8-8	388	4,902	30	1058.2
2015	• NY Giants	6-10	392	4,500	36	1058.0
2013	Atlanta	4-12	445	4,541	26	1055.1
2020	• LA Chargers	7-9	413	4,548	31	1053.8
2020	Seattle	12-4	388	4,245	40	1052.5
2016	Washington	8-7-1	407	4,948	25	1051.8
2020	Pittsburgh	12-4	428	4,129	35	1050.9
2018	Philadelphia	9-7	422	4,524	29	1048.4
2012	Green Bay	11-5	374	4,342	40	1048.2
2017	New England	13-3	389	4,619	32	1042.9
2014	• Atlanta	6-10	418	4,553	28	1041.3
2015	Arizona	13-3	353	4,775	35	1040.5
2018	Minnesota	8-7-1	425	4,298	30	1034.8
2018	LA Rams	13-3	368	4,730	32	1033.0
2020	Atlanta	4-12	408	4,620	27	1032.0
2015	Pittsburgh	10-6	391	4,822	26	1029.2
2019	Kansas City	12-4	378	4,690	30	1027.0
2011	NY Giants	9-7	359	4,933	29	1026.3
2011	Dallas	8-8	376	4,453	33	1019.3
2013	San Diego	9-7	378	4,478	32	1017.8
2016	Pittsburgh	11-5	381	4,377	33	1016.7
2020	• Dallas	6-10	413	4,511	25	1014.1
2017	Pittsburgh	13-3	384	4,534	29	1011.4
2016	Indianapolis	8-8	370	4,491	32	1011.1
2013	Chicago	8-8	373	4,450	32	1010.0
2013	• Detroit	7-9	371	4,650	29	1010.0
2014	New England	12-4	392	4,121	34	1008.1
2015	Jacksonville	5-11	355	4,428	35	1007.8
2016	New England	14-2	368	4,456	32	1005.6
2018	• Green Bay	6-9-1	392	4,629	25	1004.9
2014	Green Bay	12-4	349	4,261	38	1003.1
2019	LA Chargers	5-11	394	4,648	24	1002.8
2015	Baltimore	5-11	426	4,449	21	996.9
2018	New Orleans	13-3	381	4,174	33	996.4
2015	Atlanta	8-8	410	4,602	21	996.2
2019	LA Rams	9-7	397	4,669	22	995.9
2013	Dallas	8-8	375	4,226	33	995.6
2015	Washington	9-7	386	4,294	30	995.4
2017	Detroit	9-7	374	4,470	29	995.0
2017	Tampa Bay	5-11	378	4,607	26	994.7
2013	Cincinnati	11-5	364	4,321	33	994.1
2016	• Arizona	7-8-1	383	4,425	28	993.5
2016	Baltimore	8-8	439	4,343	20	993.3
2018	New England	11-5	378	4,405	29	992.5
2011	San Diego	8-8	366	4,624	27	990.4
2014	• NY Giants	6-10	383	4,272	30	990.2
2015	• Oakland	7-9	373	4,129	34	989.9
2017	LA Chargers	9-7	366	4,551	28	989.1
2016	San Diego	5-11	349	4,386	33	985.6
2020	• Minnesota	7-9	349	4,265	35	985.5
2014	Philadelphia	10-6	384	4,356	27	981.6
2015	• Philadelphia	7-9	405	4,341	23	977.1
2015	NY Jets	10-6	362	4,170	33	977.0
2014	San Diego	9-7	380	4,098	31	975.8
2020	Detroit	5-11	374	4,397	27	975.7
2013	Pittsburgh	8-8	377	4,306	28	975.6
2011	Atlanta	10-6	365	4,365	29	975.5
2020	Las Vegas	8-8	369	4,383	28	975.3
2013	Cleveland	4-12	379	4,372	26	972.2
2018	LA Chargers	12-4	348	4,316	32	971.6
2013	Green Bay	8-7-1	366	4,538	25	969.8
2016	Oakland	12-4	379	4,137	29	966.7
2017	Philadelphia	13-3	341	3,967	38	965.7
2016	Detroit	9-7	388	4,327	24	964.7

—Ian Allan

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