Brian Flores says Miami will use all three of its running backs -- Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, Malcolm Brown. David Culley will likely do the same with Houston's backfield of Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram and David Johnson. Perhaps he'll even find some chances for Rex Burkhead; you don't want to leave that on the bench. Death to fantasy value.
I think the broad recommendation here is to steer clear of most of these players. If Flores thinks running Brown into the line is a good use of carries, his judgment can't be trusted to make Gaskin a viable running back. If Culley seriously thinks David Johnson should be a third-down back behind Ingram and/or Lindsay, I want even less to do with Houston than I did initially.
But for the sake of discussion, I decided to examine whether a three-back committee might produce some viable fantasy players. The history wasn't quite as awful as I expected.
I took a look at every team in the last 20 years that's had three running backs with 100-plus touches (combined rushing attempts and receptions) in a season. There have been 30 such teams. Only one of those teams had a top-10 fantasy back, which isn't surprising. But those teams did produce 14 top-25 backs, across 12 different teams (two teams had 2). So it is possible to pluck a quality starter in typical 12-team leagues out of this bad situation.
But -- and this is important -- a lot of the teams that produced those backs were a whole lot better on offense than Houston figures to be, and almost certainly Miami too. Nearly half (6) of those 14 running backs came from high-powered New Orleans offenses. (One of which Ingram played for, watching Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas finish the season ranked in the top 25.) That's about the only thing the 2021 Texans and those great New Orleans offenses have in common: Ingram.
Table shows those 30 three-man backfields, with top-25 running backs in bold. There were two last year (49ers and Rams, which included Malcolm Brown). The top running back was 31st-ranked Jeff Wilson.
THREE-MAN BACKFIELDS (100 TOUCHES EACH), 2001-2020 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Att | Yds | Rec | Yds | TD | Tch | PPR | Rk |
2020 | Jeff Wilson, S.F. | 126 | 600 | 13 | 133 | 10 | 139 | 146.3 | 31 |
2020 | Jerick McKinnon, S.F. | 81 | 319 | 33 | 253 | 6 | 114 | 126.2 | 39 |
2020 | Raheem Mostert, | 104 | 521 | 16 | 156 | 3 | 120 | 101.7 | 47 |
2020 | Darrell Henderson, LAR | 138 | 624 | 16 | 159 | 6 | 154 | 130.3 | 36 |
2020 | Malcolm Brown, LAR | 101 | 419 | 23 | 162 | 5 | 124 | 111.1 | 43 |
2020 | Cam Akers, LAR | 145 | 625 | 11 | 123 | 3 | 156 | 103.8 | 45 |
2019 | Raheem Mostert, S.F. | 137 | 772 | 14 | 180 | 10 | 151 | 169.2 | 26 |
2019 | Tevin Coleman, S.F. | 137 | 544 | 21 | 180 | 7 | 158 | 135.4 | 39 |
2019 | Matt Breida, S.F. | 123 | 623 | 19 | 120 | 2 | 142 | 105.3 | 46 |
2019 | James Conner, Pitt. | 116 | 464 | 34 | 251 | 7 | 150 | 147.5 | 34 |
2019 | Jaylen Samuels, Pitt. | 66 | 175 | 47 | 305 | 2 | 113 | 108.8 | 45 |
2019 | Benny Snell, Pitt. | 108 | 426 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 111 | 59.9 | 67 |
2018 | Jalen Richard, Oak. | 55 | 259 | 68 | 607 | 1 | 123 | 160.6 | 29 |
2018 | Doug Martin, Oak. | 172 | 723 | 18 | 116 | 4 | 190 | 125.9 | 40 |
2018 | Marshawn Lynch, Oak. | 90 | 376 | 15 | 84 | 3 | 105 | 79.0 | 63 |
2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 118 | 641 | 32 | 213 | 4 | 150 | 141.4 | 33 |
2018 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 40 | 171 | 61 | 384 | 0 | 101 | 116.5 | 43 |
2018 | LeGarrette Blount, Det. | 154 | 418 | 10 | 67 | 5 | 164 | 88.5 | 59 |
2017 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | 178 | 772 | 23 | 170 | 5 | 201 | 147.2 | 30 |
2017 | Matt Forte, NYJ | 103 | 381 | 37 | 293 | 3 | 140 | 122.4 | 42 |
2017 | Elijah McGuire, NYJ | 88 | 315 | 17 | 177 | 2 | 105 | 80.2 | 62 |
2016 | Latavius Murray, Oak. | 195 | 788 | 33 | 264 | 12 | 228 | 210.2 | 13 |
2016 | Jalen Richard, Oak. | 83 | 491 | 29 | 194 | 3 | 112 | 115.5 | 42 |
2016 | DeAndre Washington, Oak. | 87 | 467 | 17 | 115 | 2 | 104 | 87.2 | 57 |
2016 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 92 | 357 | 53 | 371 | 6 | 145 | 161.8 | 25 |
2016 | Zach Zenner, Det. | 88 | 334 | 18 | 196 | 4 | 106 | 95.0 | 52 |
2016 | Dwayne Washington, Det. | 90 | 265 | 10 | 62 | 1 | 100 | 48.7 | 75 |
2016 | Chris Thompson, Was. | 68 | 356 | 49 | 349 | 5 | 117 | 149.5 | 28 |
2016 | Robert Kelley, Was. | 168 | 704 | 12 | 82 | 7 | 180 | 132.6 | 38 |
2016 | Matt Jones, Was. | 99 | 460 | 8 | 73 | 3 | 107 | 79.3 | 58 |
2015 | DeMarco Murray, Phil. | 193 | 702 | 44 | 322 | 7 | 237 | 188.4 | 15 |
2015 | Darren Sproles, Phil. | 83 | 317 | 55 | 388 | 6 | 138 | 161.5 | 26 |
2015 | Ryan Mathews, Phil. | 106 | 539 | 20 | 146 | 7 | 126 | 130.5 | 36 |
2015 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 43 | 133 | 80 | 697 | 3 | 123 | 181.0 | 19 |
2015 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 143 | 597 | 25 | 183 | 3 | 168 | 121.0 | 44 |
2015 | Joique Bell, Det. | 90 | 311 | 22 | 286 | 4 | 112 | 105.7 | 50 |
2012 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 48 | 244 | 75 | 667 | 8 | 123 | 216.1 | 13 |
2012 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 105 | 473 | 39 | 354 | 2 | 144 | 133.7 | 32 |
2012 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 156 | 602 | 6 | 29 | 5 | 162 | 99.1 | 42 |
2011 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 87 | 603 | 86 | 710 | 10 | 173 | 277.3 | 5 |
2011 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 110 | 562 | 50 | 425 | 6 | 160 | 184.7 | 21 |
2011 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 122 | 474 | 11 | 46 | 5 | 133 | 93.0 | 46 |
2011 | Dexter McCluster, K.C. | 114 | 516 | 46 | 328 | 2 | 160 | 142.4 | 31 |
2011 | Jackie Battle, K.C. | 149 | 597 | 9 | 68 | 2 | 158 | 87.5 | 50 |
2011 | Thomas Jones, K.C. | 153 | 478 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 158 | 57.1 | 70 |
2011 | Donald Brown, Ind. | 134 | 645 | 16 | 86 | 5 | 150 | 119.1 | 38 |
2011 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 118 | 433 | 15 | 93 | 1 | 133 | 73.6 | 58 |
2011 | Delone Carter, Ind. | 101 | 377 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 106 | 56.5 | 71 |
2010 | Mike Tolbert, S.D. | 182 | 735 | 25 | 216 | 11 | 207 | 188.1 | 21 |
2010 | Darren Sproles, S.D. | 50 | 267 | 59 | 520 | 2 | 109 | 149.7 | 29 |
2010 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 158 | 678 | 22 | 145 | 7 | 180 | 146.3 | 31 |
2009 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 147 | 793 | 39 | 302 | 8 | 186 | 196.5 | 19 |
2009 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 70 | 390 | 47 | 335 | 8 | 117 | 167.5 | 29 |
2009 | Mike Bell, N.O. | 172 | 654 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 176 | 100.6 | 46 |
2009 | Michael Bush, Oak. | 123 | 589 | 17 | 105 | 3 | 140 | 104.4 | 44 |
2009 | Justin Fargas, Oak. | 129 | 491 | 17 | 113 | 3 | 146 | 95.4 | 48 |
2009 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 104 | 357 | 21 | 245 | 1 | 125 | 87.2 | 51 |
2008 | Pierre Thomas, N.O. | 129 | 625 | 31 | 284 | 12 | 160 | 193.9 | 19 |
2008 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 106 | 404 | 52 | 440 | 9 | 158 | 190.4 | 22 |
2008 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 107 | 418 | 18 | 128 | 6 | 125 | 108.6 | 47 |
2008 | LeRon McClain, Balt. | 232 | 902 | 19 | 123 | 11 | 251 | 187.5 | 23 |
2008 | Willis McGahee, Balt. | 170 | 671 | 24 | 173 | 7 | 194 | 150.4 | 35 |
2008 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 107 | 454 | 33 | 273 | 0 | 140 | 105.7 | 49 |
2008 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 113 | 499 | 29 | 285 | 4 | 142 | 131.4 | 42 |
2008 | Justin Fargas, Oak. | 218 | 853 | 10 | 52 | 1 | 228 | 106.5 | 48 |
2008 | Michael Bush, Oak. | 95 | 421 | 19 | 162 | 3 | 114 | 95.7 | 55 |
2006 | Leon Washington, NYJ | 151 | 650 | 25 | 270 | 4 | 176 | 141.0 | 35 |
2006 | Kevan Barlow, NYJ | 131 | 370 | 7 | 21 | 6 | 138 | 82.1 | 53 |
2006 | Cedric Houston, NYJ | 113 | 374 | 7 | 43 | 5 | 120 | 78.7 | 54 |
2005 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 186 | 664 | 20 | 109 | 5 | 206 | 127.3 | 32 |
2005 | Shawn Bryson, Det. | 64 | 306 | 37 | 284 | 1 | 101 | 102.0 | 44 |
2005 | Artose Pinner, Det. | 106 | 349 | 21 | 181 | 3 | 127 | 92.0 | 52 |
2005 | Antowain Smith, N.O. | 166 | 659 | 12 | 46 | 3 | 178 | 100.5 | 45 |
2005 | Aaron Stecker, N.O. | 95 | 363 | 35 | 281 | 0 | 130 | 99.4 | 46 |
2005 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 93 | 335 | 17 | 117 | 3 | 110 | 80.2 | 55 |
2004 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 196 | 892 | 19 | 187 | 15 | 215 | 216.9 | 18 |
2004 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 120 | 581 | 22 | 278 | 11 | 142 | 173.9 | 27 |
2004 | Derrick Blaylock, K.C. | 118 | 539 | 25 | 246 | 9 | 143 | 157.5 | 29 |
2003 | Moe Williams, Min. | 174 | 745 | 65 | 644 | 8 | 239 | 251.9 | 12 |
2003 | Onterrio Smith, Min. | 107 | 579 | 15 | 129 | 5 | 122 | 117.8 | 38 |
2003 | Michael Bennett, Min. | 90 | 447 | 12 | 132 | 1 | 102 | 75.9 | 50 |
2003 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 117 | 613 | 37 | 332 | 13 | 154 | 209.5 | 20 |
2003 | Duce Staley, Phil. | 96 | 463 | 36 | 382 | 7 | 132 | 162.5 | 28 |
2003 | Correll Buckhalter, Phil. | 126 | 542 | 10 | 133 | 9 | 136 | 131.5 | 34 |
2003 | Jamel White, Cle. | 70 | 266 | 46 | 303 | 2 | 116 | 114.9 | 40 |
2003 | James Jackson, Cle. | 102 | 382 | 14 | 114 | 3 | 116 | 81.6 | 47 |
2003 | William Green, Cle. | 142 | 559 | 10 | 50 | 1 | 152 | 76.9 | 49 |
2001 | Cory Schlesinger, Det. | 47 | 154 | 60 | 466 | 3 | 107 | 140.0 | 28 |
2001 | James Stewart, Det. | 143 | 685 | 23 | 242 | 2 | 166 | 127.7 | 34 |
2001 | Lamont Warren, Det. | 61 | 191 | 40 | 336 | 4 | 101 | 118.7 | 36 |
Final thought from me is that half (7) of those 14 running backs were prolific pass catchers, finishing the season with at least 50 receptions. Not surprising (PPR scoring), but it highlights my feeling that Johnson and Gaskin -- who should be the primary pass catchers in Houston and Miami -- seem to have the best chance to finish with usable fantasy production. Five of the other seven top-25 backs scored double-digit touchdowns. If you think Miami or Houston is going to have a running back score 10 touchdowns this season...well, good luck with that.
--Andy Richardson