The Patriots uncorked the first big move of the roster cutdowns, releasing Cam Newton. Mac Jones played well enough in the preseason that it was pretty clear he’d be taking over sooner rather than later, but now Jones can be evaluated on equal footing with the other quarterbacks. Barring injury, he’ll play 17 games.
Jones seems to be a good processor – capable of quickly making a decision and getting the ball where it needs to go. The Patriots added a bunch of pass catchers in the offseason – Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor – and Jones seems to have a lot more ability than Newton to bring those guys to life.
On the considerable downside, he doesn’t have much mobility. And especially with young quarterbacks, if there’s no mobility it’s tough to move the needle for fantasy purposes.
In the last 20 years, 20 rookie quarterbacks have finished with top-20 numbers (per-game numbers, that is, and among those who started at least half the season). Only one of those quarterbacks (2018 Baker Mayfield) didn’t put up top-20 rushing stats, and only three others didn’t finish with top-10 rushing numbers (using 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards). Those are three all ranked between 11th and 14th in per-game rushing, so they were still above average – Byron Leftwich, Gardner Minshew, Joe Burrow.
| ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS WITH TOP-20 NUMBERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts |
| 2001 | Chris Weinke, Car. | 15 | 195.4 | .73 | 8.5 | .40 | 16.0 |
| 2003 | • Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 13 | 207.3 | .92 | 8.3 | .15 | 15.8 |
| 2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 13 | 158.9 | .85 | 40.6 | .54 | 18.8 |
| 2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 11 | 226.6 | 1.00 | 5.1 | .18 | 16.9 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 10 | 226.7 | 1.30 | 10.8 | .20 | 19.0 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253.2 | 1.31 | 44.1 | .88 | 27.8 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 213.3 | 1.33 | 54.3 | .47 | 24.2 |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 194.9 | 1.63 | 30.6 | .25 | 20.8 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 273.4 | 1.44 | 15.9 | .31 | 22.9 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 234.8 | 1.58 | 21.0 | .25 | 22.2 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 252.6 | 1.38 | 13.1 | .38 | 21.8 |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 229.2 | 1.44 | 17.6 | .38 | 21.2 |
| 2017 | Brett Hundley, G.B. | 9 | 204.0 | 1.00 | 30.0 | .22 | 18.8 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 181.8 | .91 | 55.0 | .73 | 22.8 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 271.1 | 2.08 | 10.2 | .00 | 23.0 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 232.6 | 1.25 | 34.0 | .25 | 21.9 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 250.8 | 2.00 | 22.8 | .17 | 24.2 |
| 2019 | • Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 12 | 237.4 | 1.50 | 27.5 | .00 | 21.0 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 289.1 | 2.07 | 15.6 | .33 | 26.5 |
| 2020 | • Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 268.8 | 1.30 | 14.2 | .30 | 21.9 |
I like what I’ve seen of Jones, but mobility isn’t his bag. He’ll e a bottom-10 runner. He’ll finish with the fewest rushing yards of the five quarterbacks drafted in the first round. So for fantasy purposes, I think Trey Lance and Justin Fields make more sense as second quarterbacks who might run their way to relevance.
As for Newton, he’s free to sign anywhere he wants. I don’t think anything will be coming soon, but a key injury could change a team’s thinking. Newton isn’t vaccinated and contract COVID during the 2020 season, and I imagine some teams will factor that into their decision making. All things being equal, I think the vast majority of teams would prefer players who are vaccinated.
—Ian Allan