It's cutdown day in the NFL, which means there will be lots of youngsters and veterans suddenly unemployed. One of the (not unexpected) ones I saw this morning was Washington releasing veteran running back Peyton Barber; previously they'd cut Lamar Miller. That leaves them with just Jonathan Williams (who might also be cut today) behind Antonio Gibson, and undrafted rookie Jaret Patterson.
Washington also has J.D. McKissic, but he's basically James White -- passing downs only. If Gibson misses time due to injury, McKissic isn't going to move into a featured runner role. That looks like Patterson, which gives him the potential to be one of the success stories among undrafted rookie running backs this season.
I wondered what the odds of rookie success are for lightly-regarded running backs -- either Day 3 picks (rounds 4-7) or undrafted guys like Patterson. Here are the results from the last 10 years.
From the last decade, there have been a little over 200 late-drafted (rounds 4-7) or undrafted running backs to make it into our comprehensive files, on average about 22 per year.
Of those players, 13 finished their first season ranked in the top 30 at the position; 1.3 per year. Nineteen more made it into the top 50; should be rostered in typical leagues, and managed some usable production along the way. Collectively, you're looking at about 3 viable late-round or undrafted rookie running backs per season. Three of them made it into the top 10 at the position in the last decade, James Robinson most recently. About a third of those running backs (9 of 32) were undrafted -- better odds, interestingly, of an undrafted guy making an impact than a 5th, 6th, or 7th-round pick.
| DAY 3/UNDRAFTED RUNNING BACKS, 2011-2020 (TOP-50) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| U | 2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 1070 | 49 | 344 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 |
| 6 | 2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 1613 | 11 | 77 | 13 | 258.0 | 7 |
| 5 | 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1313 | 29 | 298 | 7 | 232.1 | 10 |
| U | 2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 1037 | 35 | 241 | 10 | 222.8 | 13 |
| 5 | 2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 973 | 26 | 141 | 8 | 185.4 | 21 |
| 4 | 2011 | Roy Helu, Was. | 640 | 49 | 379 | 3 | 168.9 | 25 |
| U | 2014 | Branden Oliver, S.D. | 582 | 36 | 271 | 4 | 145.3 | 26 |
| 6 | 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 652 | 39 | 371 | 4 | 165.3 | 26 |
| 4 | 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 721 | 18 | 130 | 7 | 145.1 | 27 |
| 4 | 2017 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 370 | 53 | 353 | 4 | 154.4 | 28 |
| 4 | 2016 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 612 | 31 | 265 | 5 | 148.7 | 29 |
| 4 | 2015 | Javorius Allen, Balt. | 514 | 45 | 353 | 3 | 149.7 | 29 |
| 4 | 2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 537 | 22 | 279 | 7 | 147.6 | 30 |
| U | 2014 | Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | 607 | 9 | 87 | 8 | 126.4 | 33 |
| 5 | 2012 | Vick Ballard, Ind. | 814 | 17 | 152 | 3 | 131.6 | 33 |
| 4 | 2017 | Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 556 | 25 | 262 | 6 | 142.8 | 34 |
| U | 2015 | Thomas Rawls, Sea. | 830 | 9 | 76 | 5 | 129.6 | 37 |
| U | 2016 | Robert Kelley, Was. | 704 | 12 | 82 | 7 | 132.6 | 38 |
| 5 | 2015 | Karlos Williams, Buff. | 517 | 11 | 96 | 9 | 126.3 | 38 |
| U | 2016 | Jalen Richard, Oak. | 491 | 29 | 194 | 3 | 115.5 | 42 |
| 4 | 2017 | Samaje Perine, Was. | 603 | 22 | 182 | 2 | 112.5 | 43 |
| 7 | 2012 | Bryce Brown, Phil. | 564 | 13 | 56 | 4 | 99.0 | 43 |
| U | 2017 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 260 | 27 | 279 | 5 | 110.9 | 44 |
| 4 | 2011 | Kendall Hunter, S.F. | 473 | 16 | 195 | 2 | 94.8 | 45 |
| 4 | 2017 | Wayne Gallman, NYG | 476 | 34 | 193 | 1 | 106.9 | 46 |
| 6 | 2014 | Alfred Blue, Hou. | 528 | 15 | 113 | 3 | 97.1 | 46 |
| 7 | 2012 | Daryl Richardson, St.L. | 475 | 24 | 163 | 0 | 89.8 | 46 |
| U | 2017 | Matt Breida, S.F. | 465 | 21 | 180 | 3 | 103.5 | 47 |
| 4 | 2016 | Kenneth Dixon, Balt. | 382 | 30 | 162 | 3 | 102.4 | 47 |
| 4 | 2017 | Marlon Mack, Ind. | 358 | 21 | 225 | 4 | 103.3 | 48 |
| 4 | 2014 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 248 | 30 | 225 | 2 | 89.3 | 49 |
| 4 | 2018 | Ito Smith, Atl. | 315 | 27 | 152 | 4 | 97.7 | 50 |
Washington has been a nice landing spot for such players. Four late-drafted or undrafted Washington rookie running backs have made it into the top 50 at their position from the last decade: Alfred Morris, Roy Helu, Robert Kelley (also undrafted) and Samaje Perine. Maybe Patterson will be the fifth.
Patterson is small (5-8, 195), but solidly built and heavily muscled, as the picture makes clear. Optimistic to imagine he'll be the next Maurice Jones-Drew or anything, but in a position where he could get some work in this backfield early on.
--Andy Richardson