So the Bills beat the living snot out of the Patriots yesterday, and a major takeaway was the total ineffectiveness of New England's defense. It didn't sack Josh Allen, and it didn't record any takeaways. Outside of Buffalo, few saw such a dominant performance from their offense coming. But more probably should have.
While Bill Belichick's Patriots Defense was great for most of the season, it faded badly down the stretch. That shows up especially in the critical fantasy areas of sacks and takeaways.
In the first 12 games of the season, the Patriots had 30 sacks and 25 takeaways. They were one of the NFL's very best teams in both categories over that span: only four teams had more sacks, and only Indianapolis had more takeaways. They went 8-4 in those games. (Table sorted by takeaways; search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com used in compiling this data.)
| NFL DEFENSES, FIRST 12 GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Sack | Take |
| Indianapolis | 6 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 27 |
| New England | 8 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 25 |
| Buffalo | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 25 |
| Tampa Bay | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 23 |
| Houston | 2 | 9 | 0 | 25 | 20 |
| Arizona | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 19 |
| Dallas | 7 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 19 |
| Green Bay | 9 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 19 |
| Miami | 5 | 7 | 0 | 28 | 19 |
| N.Y. Giants | 4 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 19 |
| New Orleans | 5 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 16 |
| Kansas City | 7 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 15 |
| L.A. Rams | 7 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 15 |
| Carolina | 5 | 7 | 0 | 32 | 14 |
| Cincinnati | 7 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 14 |
| Cleveland | 6 | 6 | 0 | 31 | 14 |
| Tennessee | 8 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 14 |
| Denver | 6 | 5 | 0 | 27 | 13 |
| Detroit | 0 | 10 | 1 | 16 | 13 |
| Minnesota | 5 | 6 | 0 | 33 | 13 |
| L.A. Chargers | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 12 |
| Las Vegas | 6 | 5 | 0 | 25 | 12 |
| Philadelphia | 5 | 7 | 0 | 19 | 12 |
| Washington | 5 | 6 | 0 | 22 | 12 |
| Atlanta | 5 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 11 |
| Chicago | 4 | 7 | 0 | 32 | 11 |
| San Francisco | 6 | 5 | 0 | 24 | 11 |
| Baltimore | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 10 |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 10 |
| Seattle | 3 | 8 | 0 | 18 | 10 |
| N.Y. Jets | 3 | 8 | 0 | 25 | 9 |
| Jacksonville | 2 | 9 | 0 | 19 | 6 |
In the last five games of the season, the Patriots not only fell off that pace; they were one of the NFL's weakest teams in both areas. Only the Falcons (with the league's worst pass rush by a large margin) had fewer sacks than New England in the final five games, and only five teams had fewer takeaways. The Patriots went 2-3 down the stretch and were quickly dispatched in the playoffs.
| NFL DEFENSES, LAST FIVE GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Sack | Take |
| Dallas | 5 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 15 |
| Kansas City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 14 |
| Pittsburgh | 4 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 12 |
| Minnesota | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 11 |
| L.A. Rams | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 10 |
| Atlanta | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| L.A. Chargers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 9 |
| New Orleans | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 9 |
| San Francisco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 9 |
| Arizona | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 8 |
| Seattle | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 8 |
| Tennessee | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 8 |
| Cincinnati | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 |
| Green Bay | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| Miami | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 7 |
| Washington | 2 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 7 |
| Denver | 1 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| Detroit | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 6 |
| Indianapolis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 |
| Baltimore | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 5 |
| Buffalo | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 5 |
| Chicago | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 5 |
| Cleveland | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 5 |
| Houston | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 |
| New England | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| N.Y. Jets | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 5 |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 |
| Jacksonville | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 3 |
| Las Vegas | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 |
| N.Y. Giants | 0 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 3 |
| Carolina | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
So it's the offseason for the Patriots, and no doubt they'll be looking for offensive upgrades. Their wide receivers, certainly, aren't difference-makers (a problem they've created themselves, with poor draft picks and questionable free agent moves); that will be one area they look to improve.
But a lot of their best defensive players are older, and they seemed to fade down the stretch, culminating in the most embarrassing defensive performance of the Belichick era. That's an area they'll also likely be looking to dramatically improve in the offseason.
--Andy Richardson