There was a report yesterday indicating that the Packers are interested in acquiring Darren Waller from the Raiders. This might be seen as a good thing for Waller's value, going to a team that doesn't have a legit No. 1 wideout these days, but others will argue that tight ends haven't generally prospered with Aaron Rodgers.
According to the story, Waller was discussed as part of the trade that sent Davante Adams to Las Vegas, but league rules prohibit players being included in deals for unsigned franchise-tagged players. But Green Bay is still interested in adding a veteran tight end, and Waller is apparently on their radar.
Robert Tonyan is coming off a torn ACL, plus the Packers don't have much at wide receiver (after trading Adams and losing Marquez Valdes-Scantling), so maybe they're planning on running more sets with two tight ends. Either way, bringing in Waller -- a go-to player for the Raiders -- would seem to be a negative for both him and Tonyan. Can two tight ends really prosper in this offense?
This is not to say Rodgers has never had a top-performing tight end. Tonyan himself ranked 5th (PPR) in 2020, and Jermichael Finley was a top-10 player back in 2011. Jimmy Graham and Richard Rodgers, of all people, even had top-12 seasons with Rodgers.
But Waller was fantasy's No. 2 tight end in both 2019 and 2020 in Las Vegas. Merely finishing in the top 10 or 12 would be a pretty big step back.
Most of those other successful Rodgers tight ends did it not with volume of receptions, but with touchdowns. Tonyan, Finley and Richard Rodgers each caught 8-plus touchdowns in their best seasons. Waller caught 9 TDs in 2020, but just 3 in 2019 and 2 (in 11 games) last year. The likely scenario for Waller in Green Bay, then, would be fewer receptions (he averaged 99 in 2019-2020) but more touchdowns. Those in TD-heavy scoring systems should like Waller a little more in Green Bay, especially with Adams now in Vegas; in PPR, a little less.
Table shows all tight ends to see at least 25 targets in Green Bay during the Aaron Rodgers era.
| GREEN BAY TIGHT ENDS, 2008-2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Tgt | No | Yds | TD | Rk |
| 2020 | Robert Tonyan | 16 | 59 | 52 | 586 | 11 | 5 |
| 2011 | Jermichael Finley | 16 | 92 | 55 | 767 | 8 | 9 |
| 2015 | Richard Rodgers | 16 | 85 | 58 | 510 | 8 | 11 |
| 2018 | Jimmy Graham | 16 | 89 | 55 | 636 | 2 | 12 |
| 2009 | Jermichael Finley | 13 | 72 | 55 | 676 | 5 | 12 |
| 2012 | Jermichael Finley | 16 | 87 | 61 | 667 | 2 | 14 |
| 2008 | Donald Lee | 16 | 50 | 39 | 303 | 5 | 20 |
| 2019 | Jimmy Graham | 16 | 60 | 38 | 447 | 3 | 21 |
| 2014 | Andrew Quarless | 16 | 46 | 29 | 323 | 3 | 26 |
| 2009 | Donald Lee | 16 | 54 | 37 | 260 | 1 | 31 |
| 2013 | Andrew Quarless | 16 | 53 | 32 | 312 | 2 | 36 |
| 2016 | Jared Cook | 10 | 51 | 30 | 377 | 1 | 36 |
| 2016 | Richard Rodgers | 16 | 47 | 30 | 271 | 2 | 37 |
| 2013 | Jermichael Finley | 6 | 34 | 25 | 300 | 3 | 37 |
| 2010 | Jermichael Finley | 5 | 26 | 21 | 301 | 1 | 39 |
| 2021 | Josiah Deguara | 16 | 33 | 25 | 245 | 2 | 40 |
| 2010 | Andrew Quarless | 13 | 33 | 21 | 238 | 1 | 42 |
| 2014 | Richard Rodgers | 16 | 30 | 20 | 225 | 2 | 43 |
| 2017 | Lance Kendricks | 16 | 35 | 18 | 203 | 1 | 48 |
| 2021 | Robert Tonyan | 8 | 29 | 18 | 204 | 2 | 49 |
| 2018 | Lance Kendricks | 16 | 25 | 19 | 170 | 1 | 50 |
| 2021 | Marcedes Lewis | 17 | 28 | 23 | 214 | 0 | 54 |
--Andy Richardson