There's not much consensus on what the Jaguars will do with the No. 1 overall pick on Thursday. Apparently not even among the decision-makers; a report yesterday said the GM favors one guy and the owners favors another. Ordinarily the owner being involved in the decision is worrying enough on its own (Isn't that what he hires the GM for?), but since the GM is Trent Baalke, it's not easy to have much faith the team will make the right choice either way.
Michigan pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson (16.5 sacks last year) has long been the favorite, but Georgia's Travon Walker (6 sacks) is now the oddsmaker's choice. Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal is another candidate, under the idea of protecting your franchise quarterback for years to come. A day before the draft, surely the Jaguars know who they're taking. Right?
While taking Neal might make some sense, I think adding a difference-maker on defense can be just as helpful to a young quarterback as pass protection. The Jaguars need pass rush and opportunism, badly. Other than one outlier year (2017, when they had 55 sacks and the league's top fantasy defense, helping the Jaguars nearly get to the Super Bowl with Blake Bortles at quarterback) they've been godawful in recent years.
Twice in the last 10 years, Jacksonville has finished last or next to last in sacks. They've averaged 35 per season over that decade, a bottom-10 figure. That lack of pressure probably factors into them also being one of the worst teams in terms of takeaways for most of those years, including last year -- an NFL worst 9 takeaways in 17 games.
Over the last four seasons, there have been 32 occasions where a team has finished with 17 or fewer takeaways (combine interceptions and fumble recoveries). Jacksonville did it in all but one of those years, one of just two teams (the other being Oakland-Las Vegas) to do it more than twice.
| FEWEST TAKEAWAYS, 2018-2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Defense | Int | Fum | Take | Sack |
| 2020 | Cincinnati | 11 | 6 | 17 | 17 |
| 2020 | Jacksonville | 12 | 5 | 17 | 18 |
| 2019 | Arizona | 7 | 10 | 17 | 40 |
| 2019 | Dallas | 7 | 10 | 17 | 39 |
| 2018 | Philadelphia | 10 | 7 | 17 | 44 |
| 2018 | Baltimore | 12 | 5 | 17 | 43 |
| 2018 | Tennessee | 11 | 6 | 17 | 39 |
| 2018 | Tampa Bay | 9 | 8 | 17 | 38 |
| 2018 | Jacksonville | 11 | 6 | 17 | 37 |
| 2018 | Oakland | 14 | 3 | 17 | 13 |
| 2021 | Chicago | 8 | 8 | 16 | 49 |
| 2021 | Carolina | 9 | 7 | 16 | 39 |
| 2021 | Philadelphia | 12 | 4 | 16 | 29 |
| 2020 | Denver | 10 | 6 | 16 | 42 |
| 2019 | Denver | 10 | 6 | 16 | 40 |
| 2019 | NY Giants | 10 | 6 | 16 | 36 |
| 2019 | Cincinnati | 11 | 5 | 16 | 31 |
| 2019 | Miami | 13 | 3 | 16 | 23 |
| 2018 | Arizona | 7 | 9 | 16 | 49 |
| 2021 | Las Vegas | 6 | 9 | 15 | 35 |
| 2021 | Baltimore | 9 | 6 | 15 | 34 |
| 2020 | Las Vegas | 10 | 5 | 15 | 21 |
| 2019 | Oakland | 9 | 6 | 15 | 32 |
| 2018 | Pittsburgh | 8 | 7 | 15 | 52 |
| 2018 | Green Bay | 7 | 8 | 15 | 44 |
| 2021 | NY Jets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 33 |
| 2019 | LA Chargers | 11 | 3 | 14 | 30 |
| 2018 | Detroit | 7 | 7 | 14 | 43 |
| 2020 | Detroit | 7 | 5 | 12 | 24 |
| 2021 | Jacksonville | 7 | 2 | 9 | 32 |
| 2020 | Houston | 3 | 6 | 9 | 34 |
| 2018 | San Francisco | 2 | 5 | 7 | 37 |
Hard to have much confidence will get the pick right, but seems to be a 66 percent chance they'll take a defensive player, which seems like a good idea.
Should the Jaguars pass on Hutchinson, the Lions at No. 2 would surely be interested in keeping the Michigan star in-state. Detroit also shows up twice near the bottom of this takeaways list, and they've finished 26th or worse in sacks three years in a row. Either way, both teams will -- or should -- get some help Thursday night.
--Andy Richardson