Yesterday I ran a table of the No. 1 wide receivers on the league's worst teams -- the 46 teams since 2000 that won 3 or fewer games. Since I had those teams assembled, I thought I'd look at how the No. 1 running backs on those teams performed in those seasons. The results were surprising.
In my head, I figured the No. 1 wide receivers would do OK, since those losing teams would be passing a lot and piling up late production. And I figured most of the No. 1 running backs would finish with modest numbers, since it's hard to run when you're losing games. Yes, there'd be some busy pass-catching running backs who'd put up top numbers, like D'Andre Swift (pictured), but I didn't figure that would be really common. And yet, strong performing No. 1 running backs on lousy teams happened a lot.
About a third (15) of those 46 teams had a top-15 PPR running back. Almost as many (14) had a runner finish in the top 30 at the position. That 29 of 46 ratio (63 percent) was better than the wide receiver numbers (a total of 23 top-30 players, so 50 percent, with just 8 of them finishing in the top 15). Granted, teams start 2 wide receivers and 1 running back, so a top-30 running back isn't as impressive as a top-30 wide receiver. But in fantasy terms, you're about as happy to have a running back perform that well, since the position is usually harder to fill. Clearly, then, at least in PPR formats, there's no reason to avoid No. 1 running backs from teams you expect to be terrible (David Montgomery would be a good 2022 example).
Some of those backs on bad teams were indeed helped by receiving production, of course. Eight of the backs on this list, all top-30 running backs, put up at least 400 yards in the passing game.
But: nearly a quarter (11) had 1,000-yard rushing seasons. You wouldn't think a 3-13 team would be churning out 1,000-yard running backs, but it happened almost 25 percent of the time. If I looked at all 13-3 teams (perhaps a future factoid) I don't know that the odds of having a 1,000-yard runner would be dramatically better.
Steven Jackson is the king of bad team running backs. Four times on a team that won 1, 2 or 3 games, Jackson ranked in the top 15 at the position. That's pretty remarkable. As with the wide receiver table, top-15 backs are in bold and top-30 are in italics.
| NO. 1 RUNNING BACKS ON BAD TEAMS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Wins | No. 1 RB | Run | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2021 | Detroit Lions | 3 | D'Andre Swift | 617 | 452 | 7 | 15 |
| 2021 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | James Robinson | 767 | 222 | 8 | 24 |
| 2020 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | James Robinson | 1070 | 344 | 10 | 7 |
| 2020 | New York Jets | 2 | Frank Gore | 653 | 89 | 2 | 46 |
| 2019 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | Joe Mixon | 1137 | 287 | 8 | 13 |
| 2019 | Washington | 3 | Adrian Peterson | 898 | 142 | 5 | 32 |
| 2019 | Detroit Lions | 3.5 | Kerryon Johnson | 403 | 127 | 4 | 54 |
| 2018 | Arizona Cardinals | 3 | David Johnson | 940 | 446 | 10 | 9 |
| 2017 | Cleveland Browns | 0 | Duke Johnson | 348 | 693 | 7 | 11 |
| 2017 | New York Giants | 3 | Orleans Darkwa | 751 | 116 | 5 | 36 |
| 2016 | Cleveland Browns | 1 | Isaiah Crowell | 952 | 319 | 7 | 14 |
| 2016 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | T.J. Yeldon | 465 | 312 | 2 | 34 |
| 2016 | Chicago Bears | 3 | Jordan Howard | 1313 | 298 | 7 | 10 |
| 2016 | San Francisco 49ers | 2 | Carlos Hyde | 988 | 163 | 9 | 18 |
| 2015 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | Duke Johnson | 379 | 534 | 2 | 24 |
| 2015 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | Antonio Andrews | 520 | 174 | 3 | 46 |
| 2014 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2 | Bobby Rainey | 406 | 315 | 2 | 40 |
| 2014 | Oakland Raiders | 3 | Darren McFadden | 534 | 212 | 2 | 36 |
| 2014 | Tennessee Titans | 2 | Bishop Sankey | 569 | 133 | 2 | 44 |
| 2014 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | Denard Robinson | 582 | 124 | 4 | 38 |
| 2013 | Houston Texans | 2 | Ben Tate | 771 | 140 | 4 | 30 |
| 2013 | Washington | 3 | Alfred Morris | 1275 | 78 | 7 | 20 |
| 2012 | Kansas City | 2 | Jamaal Charles | 1509 | 236 | 6 | 9 |
| 2012 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 414 | 86 | 2 | 54 |
| 2011 | St. Louis Rams | 2 | Steven Jackson | 1145 | 333 | 6 | 10 |
| 2011 | Minnesota Vikings | 3 | Adrian Peterson | 970 | 139 | 13 | 15 |
| 2011 | Indianapolis Colts | 2 | Donald Brown | 645 | 86 | 5 | 38 |
| 2010 | Carolina Panthers | 2 | Mike Goodson | 452 | 310 | 3 | 38 |
| 2009 | Detroit Lions | 2 | Kevin Smith | 747 | 415 | 5 | 21 |
| 2009 | St. Louis Rams | 1 | Steven Jackson | 1416 | 322 | 4 | 8 |
| 2009 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | Cadillac Williams | 823 | 217 | 7 | 26 |
| 2008 | St. Louis Rams | 2 | Steven Jackson | 1042 | 379 | 8 | 15 |
| 2008 | Detroit Lions | 0 | Kevin Smith | 976 | 286 | 8 | 17 |
| 2008 | Kansas City | 2 | Larry Johnson | 874 | 74 | 5 | 40 |
| 2007 | Miami Dolphins | 1 | Ronnie Brown | 602 | 389 | 5 | 23 |
| 2007 | St. Louis Rams | 3 | Steven Jackson | 1002 | 271 | 6 | 15 |
| 2006 | Detroit Lions | 3 | Kevin Jones | 689 | 520 | 8 | 12 |
| 2006 | Oakland Raiders | 2 | Justin Fargas | 659 | 91 | 1 | 48 |
| 2005 | Houston Texans | 2 | Domanick Williams | 976 | 337 | 6 | 15 |
| 2005 | New Orleans Saints | 3 | Antowain Smith | 659 | 46 | 3 | 45 |
| 2004 | San Francisco 49ers | 2 | Kevan Barlow | 822 | 212 | 7 | 24 |
| 2002 | Detroit Lions | 3 | James Stewart | 1021 | 333 | 6 | 21 |
| 2002 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | Corey Dillon | 1311 | 298 | 7 | 16 |
| 2001 | Buffalo Bills | 3 | Larry Centers | 160 | 620 | 4 | 23 |
| 2001 | Detroit Lions | 2 | Cory Schlesinger | 154 | 466 | 3 | 28 |
| 2001 | Carolina Panthers | 1 | Richard Huntley | 665 | 101 | 3 | 38 |
So, theories. Certainly, receiving production on losing teams, especially in PPR, is a factor. But there are a lot of solid finishers on this list (Adrian Peterson, Alfred Morris, Jordan Howard) who didn't do a lot in the passing game.
One thought I have is that the team being a doormat actually benefits some of these backs' usage. Losing teams (perhaps with struggling, lesser quarterbacks) sometimes play things close to the chest, emphasizing the run and trying to stay close and pull out a low-scoring win at the end. And then you have the teams who, because they're out of contention early on, aren't bothered by things like keeping running backs fresh for the postseason or limiting workloads -- they just send that featured back out there for his weekly 20-plus carries and grind the season to its disappointing close. Personal milestones might also play more of a factor when team goals have become moot points by November. "We're 2-10, so let's go get James Robinson his 1,000 yards."
Bottom line, I was surprised by the number of down-bad teams that had solid or even strong fantasy options at running back. Maybe they won't be cranking out 10-12 TD seasons, but plenty of touches and yards, both as runners and receivers, are more reliable than you might think.
--Andy Richardson