If in your gut you’re pretty sure a team will have a terrible passing offense, should you stay away from that team’s wide receivers? If a team isn’t putting up many yards or touchdown passes, after all, it will be harder for its wide receivers to finish with good numbers.
It’s an issue we were kicking around earlier in the week. Andy posted a chart showing receiving production for the best wide receivers on teams with lousy win-loss records. It got me wondering about something slightly different – teams that looked like locks to finish with terrible passing production. How often is a wide receiver able to rise out of that kind of situation?
For the 2022 season, I think we’re looking at the Falcons and Bears. It can be debated which other teams will finish with bottom-5 passing numbers. Some would vote for the Panthers, Seahawks, Browns, Jets and Giants. The Eagles and Ravens are good teams that might heavily emphasize the run.
The purpose here is not to convince you that team A, B or C will have the worst passing offense. Instead, I’m looking at how many wide receivers have been able rise out of that kind of lesser situation.
Below see the 50 teams that have finished with bottom-5 passing production in the last 10 years. That’s using PPR scoring. And for each team, you’re seeing it’s most-productive wide receiver.
Only eight of these 50 receivers finished with top-20 numbers (using PPR scoring), with nobody ranking higher than 15th. That makes sense. If a wide receiver was piling up ton of yards and touchdowns, the team would have finished with better overall numbers. Those guys are in bold (and with only three in the last six years). D.J. Moore (pictured) pulled it off last year for a dreadful Carolina offense.
Another 11 at least ranked in the top 30, so that pulls us up to an average of about two wide receivers each season from crappy passing offenses finishing with top-30 numbers, making them credible starters. (In the chart, I’ve got them tagged with black dots.) I take this as evidence that when you see a wide receiver on a lousy offense who’s definitely their No. 1 option, he’s still got a good chance of finishing with top-30 numbers. Specifically, Darnell Mooney this upcoming year; I think he makes sense as one of the first 30 receivers off the board.
Another 11 ranked in the top 40, so you could conclude that, in general, when you select a No. 1 receiver from a really bad team, you’ve got a 60 percent chance of him at least being a top-40 guy (and those are players who tend to at least be worth roster spots for the full season).
The remaining 40 percent, of course, didn’t rank in the top 40, and 11 of those receivers didn’t even rank in the top 50.
Also factor in that when you select a player you believe will be a team’s No. 1 wide receiver, that doesn’t guarantee that he will be. Mooney wasn’t expected to outproduce Allen Robinson last year, but he did. And many didn’t expect Marvin Jones to be Jacksonville’s most productive wide receiver.
Complete numbers are below. Top-20 receivers in bold, and top-30 guys tagged with black dots.
| LEADING RECEIVERS ON BOTTOM-5 PASSING OFFENSES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2012 | • Brian Hartline, Mia. | 74 | 1,083 | 1 | 188.3 | 27 |
| 2012 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 71 | 798 | 4 | 174.8 | 33 |
| 2012 | Percy Harvin, Min. | 62 | 677 | 5 | 169.3 | 35 |
| 2012 | Jeremy Kerley, NYJ | 56 | 827 | 3 | 159.6 | 42 |
| 2012 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 59 | 801 | 3 | 157.1 | 43 |
| 2013 | Anquan Boldin, S.F. | 85 | 1,179 | 7 | 246.0 | 15 |
| 2013 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 78 | 1,224 | 7 | 242.4 | 16 |
| 2013 | Rod Streater, Oak. | 60 | 888 | 4 | 174.5 | 33 |
| 2013 | Stevie Johnson, Buff. | 52 | 597 | 3 | 132.7 | 54 |
| 2013 | Jeremy Kerley, NYJ | 43 | 523 | 3 | 114.4 | 60 |
| 2014 | Anquan Boldin, S.F. | 83 | 1,062 | 5 | 219.6 | 19 |
| 2014 | • Eric Decker, NYJ | 74 | 962 | 5 | 200.2 | 26 |
| 2014 | Doug Baldwin, Sea. | 66 | 825 | 3 | 167.3 | 43 |
| 2014 | Andrew Hawkins, Cle. | 63 | 824 | 2 | 158.9 | 48 |
| 2014 | Allen Hurns, Jac. | 51 | 677 | 6 | 154.7 | 49 |
| 2015 | Jeremy Maclin, K.C. | 87 | 1,088 | 8 | 245.2 | 15 |
| 2015 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 60 | 1,047 | 9 | 218.8 | 20 |
| 2015 | • Tavon Austin, St.L. | 52 | 473 | 10 | 202.7 | 27 |
| 2015 | Anquan Boldin, S.F. | 69 | 789 | 4 | 171.9 | 40 |
| 2015 | Stefon Diggs, Min. | 52 | 720 | 4 | 149.3 | 47 |
| 2016 | • Kenny Britt, LAR | 68 | 1,002 | 5 | 198.2 | 28 |
| 2016 | • DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 78 | 954 | 4 | 197.4 | 29 |
| 2016 | Quincy Enunwa, NYJ | 58 | 857 | 4 | 168.9 | 45 |
| 2016 | Jeremy Kerley, S.F. | 64 | 667 | 3 | 148.7 | 53 |
| 2016 | Robert Woods, Buff. | 51 | 613 | 1 | 118.9 | 67 |
| 2017 | • T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 57 | 966 | 4 | 177.6 | 27 |
| 2017 | Rishard Matthews, Ten. | 53 | 795 | 4 | 156.2 | 37 |
| 2017 | Kendall Wright, Chi. | 59 | 614 | 1 | 126.4 | 53 |
| 2017 | Rashard Higgins, Cle. | 27 | 312 | 2 | 70.6 | 86 |
| 2017 | Zay Jones, Buff. | 27 | 316 | 2 | 70.6 | 87 |
| 2018 | • Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 69 | 734 | 6 | 186.0 | 26 |
| 2018 | • Corey Davis, Ten. | 65 | 891 | 4 | 183.6 | 29 |
| 2018 | Zay Jones, Buff. | 56 | 652 | 7 | 165.2 | 35 |
| 2018 | Robby Anderson, NYJ | 50 | 752 | 6 | 160.4 | 37 |
| 2018 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 44 | 532 | 2 | 109.2 | 67 |
| 2019 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | 72 | 1,112 | 6 | 222.8 | 19 |
| 2019 | John Brown, Buff. | 72 | 1,060 | 6 | 220.1 | 20 |
| 2019 | • Terry McLaurin, Was. | 58 | 919 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 |
| 2019 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 59 | 680 | 6 | 167.1 | 39 |
| 2019 | Zach Pascal, Ind. | 41 | 607 | 5 | 135.3 | 53 |
| 2020 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 58 | 769 | 8 | 183.0 | 36 |
| 2020 | Jamison Crowder, NYJ | 59 | 699 | 6 | 172.5 | 39 |
| 2020 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 66 | 656 | 4 | 162.5 | 43 |
| 2020 | Tim Patrick, Den. | 51 | 742 | 6 | 161.2 | 44 |
| 2020 | Jakobi Meyers, N.E. | 59 | 729 | 0 | 145.0 | 53 |
| 2021 | DJ Moore, Car. | 93 | 1,157 | 4 | 239.5 | 17 |
| 2021 | • Darnell Mooney, Chi. | 81 | 1,055 | 5 | 219.7 | 24 |
| 2021 | • DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 64 | 916 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
| 2021 | Marvin Jones, Jac. | 73 | 832 | 4 | 180.2 | 34 |
| 2021 | Kenny Golladay, NYG | 37 | 521 | 0 | 89.1 | 79 |
—Ian Allan