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Brian Robinson

Will Gibson's fumbles benefit 3rd-rounder?

A recent news item speculates that Washington might be looking at third-round running back Brian Robinson in a short-yardage or goal-line capacity. It makes some sense, and is also a reason for concern when selecting Antonio Gibson.

Gibson has 18 rushing scores his first two seasons; 21 total. But although he's averaged 39 receptions in those seasons, he's definitely going to lose most third-down work to J.D. McKissic. And if he's also losing some of the goal-line carries, his touchdowns will go down, too.

Robinson had 14 rushing touchdowns for Alabama last year, plus 2 more as a receiver. I doubt he's being considered for a short-yardage role because of that production -- pretty much any lead running back in Alabama's backfield is a mortal lock for double-digit touchdowns -- but The Athletic's Ben Standig thinks Gibson's ball security or lack thereof might be a factor.

Gibson fumbled 6 times last season, which is a number not many coaches will put up with these days. Over the last decade, only five running backs have fumbled more often in an NFL season. Data from pro-football-reference.com was used in compiling this table.

RUNNING BACK FUMBLES, 2012-2021
PlayerFumYear
Bobby Rainey82015
Jalen Richard82017
Chris Carson72019
Tarik Cohen72018
Adrian Peterson72015
Antonio Gibson62021
Ezekiel Elliott62018
Ezekiel Elliott62020
Melvin Gordon62015
Stefan Logan62012
Ameer Abdullah52015
Joique Bell52014
Reggie Bush52013
Jamaal Charles52012
Jamaal Charles52014
Dalvin Cook52020
Ezekiel Elliott52016
Todd Gurley52017
Derrick Henry52019
Jeremy Hill52014
Carlos Hyde52016
Chris Ivory52016
Fred Jackson52014
Fred Jackson52012
Chris Johnson52012
David Johnson52016
Matt Jones52015
Marshawn Lynch52012
Doug Martin52015
Willis McGahee52012
Alfred Morris52013
DeMarco Murray52014
Adrian Peterson52013
Devin Singletary52021
James Starks52015
Ben Tate52013

Notice that another 2021 back makes this list: Devin Singletary. The Bills also selected a running back early, in second-rounder James Cook. He's being talked up for a passing downs role rather than a goal-line one (he's 5-11, 199), but Singletary's ball security can also be monitored.

As for Robinson himself, he was one of three running backs selected in the third round in April, including Rachaad White (Tampa Bay) and Tyrion Davis-Price (San Francisco). All three were selected within 7 picks of each other. None of three is stepping into an immediate starting job, but if recent form holds, probably one of them will wind up having at least some value right away.

Over the last 10 years, there have been 30 running backs selected in the third round; exactly 3 per year, just like this one. Of those backs, 5 (including Gibson, as it happens) have put up 1,000 total yards as rookies; 5 more have finished with at least 700. Ten have scored 5-plus touchdowns; four at least 11 TDs.

Just a few immediate stars, ala Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara and David Johnson, but a lot of rookie contributors, and at least one weekly starter in fantasy leagues, on average. (Table shows rookie year stats for each player, sorted by total yards.)

3RD-ROUND ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS, 2012-2021
YearPkPlayerAttRunNoRecTotTD
201786Kareem Hunt, K.C.272132753455178211
201767Alvin Kamara, N.O.12072881826155414
201973David Montgomery, Chi.2428892518510747
202066Antonio Gibson, Wash.17079536247104211
201586David Johnson, Ariz.12558136457103813
201974Devin Singletary, Buff.151775291949694
201577Duke Johnson, Clev.104379615349132
201475Tre Mason, St.L.179765161489135
201595Matt Jones, Wash.144490193047944
201494Terrance West, Clev.17167311647375
201496Jerick McKinnon, Minn.113538271356730
201871Royce Freeman, Den.13052114725935
201284Bernard Pierce, Balt.1085327475791
202086Zack Moss, Buff.11248114955765
2019102Alexander Mattison, Minn.10046210825441
201789D'Onta Foreman, Hou.783276834102
201573Tevin Coleman, Atl.873922144061
201267Ronnie Hillman, Den.8533010623921
201690C.J. Prosise, Sea.30172172083801
201469Charles Sims, T.B.66185191903751
201396Knile Davis, K.C.7024211753175
202080Lynn Bowden, L.V.932282112430
201673Kenyan Drake, Mia.331799462252
202188Trey Sermon, S.F.411673261931
201970Darrell Henderson, LAR391474371840
2017105James Conner, Pitt.32144001440
202076KeShawn Vaughn, T.B.261095341431
202093Darrynton Evans, Tenn.1454227811
201497Dri Archer, Pitt.1040723630
201987Damien Harris, N.E.41200120

I don't think anyone needs to rush to select Robinson early, but if you draft Gibson, it makes sense to reach a little bit for the rookie. Some chance he carves out an early, and important, role in the offense.

--Andy Richardson

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