How high should everyone be on Cole Kmet? On the one hand, despite playing in a lesser passing game, he caught 60 passes last season -- only 11 tight ends caught more. On the other hand, he was absolutely dismal in terms of scoring touchdowns.
Kmet caught 60 passes last season, which is something about 8-10 tight ends per season, on average, have been able to do. Respectable for a second-year tight end in the league's 25th-ranked passing game. But Kmet didn't score any touchdowns all year. That's something a 60-catch tight end hasn't done since Steve Jordan in 1985.
Since 2000, not only is Kmet the only tight end to catch 60 passes without scoring, he's one of only seven to catch fewer than 2 TDs. But another 2021 player, Kyle Pitts, also achieved that lowly feat, and Pitts is being drafted as a top-5 player at the position. If he can reasonably shoot up to 6-8 touchdowns this season, why not Kmet?
Table shows all the 60-catch tight ends since 2000 to catch just 3 or fewer TDs. Four of those players (in bold) are from 2021.
| TD-POOR TIGHT ENDS, 2000-PRESENT | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | No | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2012 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 147 | 110 | 1039 | 9.5 | 3 |
| 2019 | Darren Waller, Oak. | 117 | 90 | 1145 | 12.7 | 3 |
| 2006 | Kellen Winslow, Cle. | 120 | 89 | 875 | 9.8 | 3 |
| 2016 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 129 | 80 | 1073 | 13.4 | 3 |
| 2015 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 104 | 77 | 713 | 9.3 | 3 |
| 2010 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 126 | 77 | 849 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 2017 | Delanie Walker, Ten. | 111 | 74 | 807 | 10.9 | 3 |
| 2019 | Tyler Higbee, LAR | 89 | 69 | 734 | 10.6 | 3 |
| 2016 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 95 | 69 | 673 | 9.8 | 3 |
| 2000 | Chad Lewis, Phil. | 110 | 69 | 735 | 10.7 | 3 |
| 2010 | Benjamin Watson, Cle. | 102 | 68 | 763 | 11.2 | 3 |
| 2014 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 91 | 66 | 761 | 11.5 | 3 |
| 2009 | Zach Miller (ASU), Oak. | 99 | 66 | 805 | 12.2 | 3 |
| 2000 | Kyle Brady, Jac. | 94 | 64 | 729 | 11.4 | 3 |
| 2007 | Owen Daniels, Hou. | 94 | 63 | 768 | 12.2 | 3 |
| 2020 | Noah Fant, Den. | 93 | 62 | 673 | 10.9 | 3 |
| 2006 | Randy McMichael, Mia. | 96 | 62 | 640 | 10.3 | 3 |
| 2021 | Tyler Conklin, Min. | 87 | 61 | 593 | 9.7 | 3 |
| 2005 | L.J. Smith, Phil. | 107 | 61 | 682 | 11.2 | 3 |
| 2002 | Shannon Sharpe, Den. | 88 | 61 | 686 | 11.3 | 3 |
| 2009 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 124 | 94 | 1030 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 2016 | Dennis Pitta, Balt. | 121 | 86 | 729 | 8.5 | 2 |
| 2004 | Eric Johnson, S.F. | 117 | 82 | 825 | 10.1 | 2 |
| 2005 | Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 116 | 78 | 905 | 11.6 | 2 |
| 2015 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 112 | 75 | 853 | 11.4 | 2 |
| 2011 | Kellen Winslow, T.B. | 123 | 75 | 763 | 10.2 | 2 |
| 2002 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 128 | 74 | 894 | 12.1 | 2 |
| 2021 | Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 112 | 73 | 780 | 10.7 | 2 |
| 2001 | Shannon Sharpe, Balt. | 114 | 73 | 811 | 11.1 | 2 |
| 2008 | Owen Daniels, Hou. | 101 | 70 | 862 | 12.3 | 2 |
| 2012 | Jermichael Finley, G.B. | 87 | 61 | 667 | 10.9 | 2 |
| 2015 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 81 | 60 | 535 | 8.9 | 2 |
| 2008 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 111 | 83 | 849 | 10.2 | 1 |
| 2005 | Jermaine Wiggins, Min. | 92 | 69 | 568 | 8.2 | 1 |
| 2021 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 110 | 68 | 1026 | 15.1 | 1 |
| 2006 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 90 | 64 | 754 | 11.8 | 1 |
| 2020 | Evan Engram, NYG | 109 | 63 | 654 | 10.4 | 1 |
| 2016 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 85 | 61 | 711 | 11.7 | 1 |
| 2021 | Cole Kmet, Chi. | 93 | 60 | 612 | 10.2 | 0 |
The big change in Chicago is that Jimmy Graham is gone. The veteran caught 11 touchdowns for Chicago the last two seasons, and most of those looks should now go to Kmet. Opportunity counts for a lot, and he wasn't getting them the last two years.
I don't think he'll zoom up to 10 TDs or anything, on a team that won't necessarily throw more than 20. But another 60-70 catches and maybe 5 TDs looks reasonable. Decent mid-round choice at the position, I think.
--Andy Richardson