Dynasty Leagues

July 17, 2022

First-round wideouts

Hit rates on top-15 picks

Rookie drafts are occurring in some dynasty leagues this month (if they haven't already happened), and I expect the first round will be wide receiver-heavy in most of them. That was the case in the actual NFL Draft, with four selected in the top 12 picks. I wondered how often those early selection pan out in the NFL -- what are the odds of them busting?

I looked at all the wide receivers selected with a top 15 draft pick this century, like Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave (pictured) and Jameson Williams were in April. There have been 41 since 2000, so 2 per year on average. Then I pulled out the best season (PPR rankings) for each player.

Of those 41 previous wide receivers, almost exactly half of them (21) had a top-20 fantasy season at some point. That alone doesn't make those picks a success story, however, since some of them only did it once and had an otherwise forgettable careers: Koren Robinson, Michael Clayton, Peter Warrick and Rod Gardner. No way would those players be selected in the top 15 again.

Better to say that 12 (so a little more than a quarter of them) had at least one top-10 season. Roy Williams had one, and his overall career wasn't successful, and the same can be said about Braylon Edwards. But most of those guys did it multiple times, and many are among the best wideouts in the game over the last 20 years: Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, A.J. Green.

Of the 20 wide receivers from this group yet to record a top-20 season, a couple are just getting started and might well do it in the next year or two: DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy. A couple of the others have at least been decent pros: Corey Davis, and Charger Mike Williams.

But 14 of them didn't ever record a top-20 season, and most of those weren't particularly close to it. Those are the disappointments: Kevin White, Corey Coleman, David Terrell, etc.

The best seasons from those 41 top-15 wide receiver picks from this century are below. Historically, looks like about a 1-in-3 chance that the players selected never come close to living up to expectations. Hope you don't pick that guy in your rookie draft.

TOP 15 WIDE RECEIVER PICKS, BEST NFL SEASONS
Pk	Year	Player	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Rk
3	2009	Andre Johnson	171	101	1569	15.5	9	1
2	2012	Calvin Johnson	204	122	1964	16.1	5	1
6	2015	Julio Jones	203	136	1871	13.8	8	2
3	2008	Larry Fitzgerald	154	96	1431	14.9	12	2
7	2016	Mike Evans	173	96	1321	13.8	12	3
4	2013	A.J. Green	178	98	1426	14.6	11	4
3	2007	Braylon Edwards	154	80	1289	16.1	16	4
12	2016	Odell Beckham	169	101	1367	13.5	10	4
5	2021	JaMarr Chase	128	81	1455	18.0	13	5
13	2006	Lee Evans	137	82	1292	15.8	8	8
7	2006	Roy Williams	151	82	1310	16.0	7	9
4	2019	Amari Cooper	119	79	1189	15.1	8	10
14	2019	DeVante Parker	128	72	1202	16.7	9	11
8	2005	Plaxico Burress	166	76	1214	16.0	7	11
6	2021	Jaylen Waddle	140	104	1015	9.8	6	12
10	2016	Michael Crabtree	145	89	1003	11.3	8	12
9	2002	Koren Robinson	141	78	1240	15.9	5	14
15	2004	Michael Clayton	122	80	1193	14.9	7	14
4	2003	Peter Warrick	122	79	819	10.4	7	16
15	2002	Rod Gardner	141	71	1006	14.2	8	19
4	2015	Sammy Watkins	96	60	1047	17.5	9	20
13	2005	Donte Stallworth	129	70	945	13.5	7	23
10	2002	Travis Taylor	118	61	869	14.3	6	25
13	2013	Michael Floyd	113	65	1041	16.0	5	27
8	2015	Tavon Austin	87	52	473	9.1	5	27
7	2011	Darrius Heyward-Bey	115	64	975	15.2	4	28
5	2020	Corey Davis	92	65	984	15.1	5	29
5	2012	Justin Blackmon	132	64	865	13.5	5	29
10	2021	DeVonta Smith	104	64	916	14.3	5	30
7	2018	Mike Williams (Clemson)	66	43	664	15.4	10	33
9	2008	Ted Ginn	93	56	790	14.1	2	33
9	2007	Reggie Williams	60	38	629	16.6	10	35
10	2010	Mike Williams (USC)	110	65	751	11.6	2	41
15	2020	Jerry Jeudy	113	52	856	16.5	3	45
8	2004	David Terrell	90	42	699	16.6	1	55
9	2019	John Ross	56	28	506	18.1	3	74
7	2006	Troy Williamson	76	37	455	12.3	0	77
15	2016	Corey Coleman	73	33	413	12.5	3	82
12	2021	Henry Ruggs	36	24	469	19.5	2	86
2	2003	Charles Rogers	52	22	243	11.1	3	88
7	2016	Kevin White	36	19	187	9.8	0	122

--Andy Richardson

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