The rookie receivers will be stepping on the field in preseason games soon, and a couple of quick thoughts as we try to make sense of what we’re seeing.
Over the last 10 years, 33 rookie receivers have finished with top-30 numbers in their first season (using PPR scoring). So in general, we should be looking for about three to finish with those kind of numbers this year – perhaps four this year, with it being a deeper-than-usual class. There’s always a washout or learning curve possibility with these guys, but they’re not all going to fizzle.
Of the three most productive rookie pass catchers of the last 10 years, none of them were impressive in the preseason. JaMarr Chase may have set a preseason record for drops last year. Back in 2014, Beckham was sidelined by an injury for all of camp, with Tom Coughlin grumbling about him maybe being a wasted pick. And Justin Jefferson didn’t light things up in 2020, coming into that season as Minnesota’s third receiver (in their first two regular-season games, Olabisi Johnson started and was on the field for more plays). I take this as evidence to not overreact to developments in August. With each of these three guys, my June rankings were better than my August rankings.
All three of those receivers, remarkably, played their college ball at Louisiana State – Beckham, Jefferson, Chase. But no LSU receiver was even drafted in April. If there’s a new LSU guy busting onto the scene, it’s more likely to be Terrace Marshall (picked in the second round by Carolina last year). Or maybe DJ Chark, who should have a big role for Detroit as Jameson Williams rehabs his surgically repaired knee.
Of the 33 rookie receivers who’ve finished with top-30 numbers, over half (18) were players who weren’t selected in the first round.
Only twice in the last 10 years has the most productive rookie receiver been the one who was selected first. Both were coveted, dominant can’t-miss type prospects – Chase and Amari Cooper. This year’s first guy (Drake London) isn’t one of those prospects. Will be a surprise, I think, if he’s able to outproduce all of the other rookie receivers this year.
The chart below is dominated by players from the major programs and the best leagues. There are only three players from what you might off-the-radar situations, and none ranked higher than 25th. T.Y. Hilton (Florida International), Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington) and Diontae Johnson (Toledo). I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots. If there’s a smaller school guy this year, it would most likely be Christian Watson (pictured) or Skyy Moore. The Packers are certainly giving Watson every opportunity to be a contributor sooner rather than later.
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (pick) | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. (5) | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG (12) | 91 | 1,305 | 12 | 297.0 | 8 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. (22) | 88 | 1,400 | 7 | 274.2 | 6 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. (47) | 92 | 1,137 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. (6) | 104 | 1,015 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. (7) | 68 | 1,051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. (28) | 73 | 1,008 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
| 2021 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. (112) | 90 | 912 | 6 | 227.3 | 22 |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. (76) | 71 | 1,046 | 8 | 223.6 | 18 |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. (17) | 74 | 935 | 7 | 219.7 | 22 |
| 2016 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. (165) | 61 | 593 | 12 | 219.0 | 18 |
| 2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. (51) | 52 | 1,051 | 9 | 217.1 | 22 |
| 2020 | Chase Claypool, Pitt. (49) | 62 | 873 | 11 | 216.9 | 23 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. (4) | 72 | 1,070 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
| 2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. (26) | 64 | 821 | 10 | 208.8 | 20 |
| 2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. (42) | 67 | 872 | 8 | 202.2 | 25 |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. (4) | 65 | 982 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. (62) | 58 | 917 | 8 | 197.7 | 20 |
| 2020 | Tee Higgins, Cin. (33) | 67 | 908 | 6 | 196.6 | 28 |
| 2019 | DK Metcalf, Sea. (64) | 58 | 900 | 7 | 193.1 | 29 |
| 2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. (76) | 58 | 919 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 |
| 2019 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. (36) | 57 | 802 | 6 | 191.1 | 31 |
| 2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. (63) | 84 | 758 | 5 | 189.4 | 30 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. (10) | 64 | 916 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
| 2012 | • T.Y. Hilton, Ind. (92) | 50 | 861 | 8 | 187.0 | 28 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. (5) | 64 | 865 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
| 2020 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. (25) | 60 | 748 | 7 | 184.5 | 35 |
| 2016 | Sterling Shepard, NYG (40) | 65 | 683 | 8 | 184.4 | 36 |
| 2017 | • Cooper Kupp, LAR (69) | 62 | 869 | 5 | 178.9 | 25 |
| 2019 | Darius Slayton, NYG (171) | 48 | 740 | 8 | 170.0 | 37 |
| 2019 | • Diontae Johnson, Pitt. (66) | 59 | 680 | 6 | 167.1 | 39 |
| 2018 | DJ Moore, Car. (24) | 55 | 788 | 2 | 163.0 | 36 |
| 2013 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Min. (29) | 45 | 469 | 9 | 161.7 | 38 |
—Ian Allan