I think there’s a tendency to overrate rookie running backs selected in the middle rounds. A team drafts a guy like Isaiah Spiller, Rachaad White or Zamir White, and many tend to kind of assume those guys will be the backup running back – an injury away from relevance.
Then the team start playing, and those plans can quickly be forgotten. NFL offenses are complex (particularly in regards to the passing game) making it hard for running backs to contribute immediately. And when a player lasts until the middle rounds, that means he’s got some flaws anyway.
I will focus here on the fourth round, since that’s where Spiller was chosen. He’s the guy I started looking at initially when I started this project. The Chargers have drafted a couple other running backs in recent years, and I think it’s premature to assume Spiller will beat them out. Joshua Kelley, after all, also was a fourth-round pick, and he’s got the advantage of having been practicing in this offense the last two years. And Los Angeles picked Larry Rountree in the sixth round last year.
The Chargers in theory could also re-sign Justin Jackson. He was their 2nd-best running back at the end of last season.
It’s early, but in general I think Spiller at this point is about a 50-50 bet to be the No. 2 back for the Chargers this year. And I think it’s about the same situation in Tampa Bay with Rachaad White (who was picked in the late third rather than fourth round).
In general, this line of thinking is supported by how things have played out for other fourth-round running backs. Of the last 75 chosen in that round, 30 were one of the top 2 backs on their own team in their first season.
So I will slot these guys conservatively for now. If somebody started peeling off impressive runs in the preseason, that will change things.
Only 14 of those 75, by the way, finished with top-40 PPR numbers in their first season (and I’ve got them tagged with black dots).
FOURTH-ROUND RUNNING BACKS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | PPR | Rk |
2002 | Najeh Davenport, G.B. | 184 | 53 | 237 | 1 | 28.7 | 88 |
2002 | Travis Stephens, T.B. | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 | 150 |
2003 | • Domanick Williams, Hou. | 1,031 | 351 | 1,382 | 8 | 233.2 | 14 |
2003 | • Onterrio Smith, Min. | 579 | 129 | 708 | 5 | 117.8 | 38 |
2003 | LaBrandon Toefield, Jac. | 212 | 105 | 317 | 3 | 65.3 | 63 |
2003 | Justin Griffith, Atl. | 168 | 122 | 290 | 2 | 62.0 | 71 |
2003 | Quentin Griffin, Den. | 345 | 61 | 406 | 0 | 48.6 | 74 |
2003 | Lee Suggs, Cle. | 289 | 0 | 289 | 2 | 42.9 | 81 |
2003 | Jeremi Johnson, Cin. | 41 | 82 | 123 | 2 | 39.3 | 82 |
2003 | Artose Pinner, Det. | 99 | 40 | 139 | 0 | 18.9 | 108 |
2004 | Mewelde Moore, Min. | 379 | 238 | 617 | 0 | 88.7 | 45 |
2004 | Cedric Cobbs, N.E. | 50 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 5.0 | 153 |
2005 | • Marion Barber, Dall. | 538 | 115 | 653 | 5 | 113.3 | 39 |
2005 | Alvin Pearman, Jac. | 149 | 240 | 389 | 1 | 76.9 | 56 |
2005 | Brandon Jacobs, NYG | 99 | 0 | 99 | 7 | 51.9 | 72 |
2005 | Ciatrick Fason, Min. | 62 | 0 | 62 | 4 | 30.2 | 89 |
2005 | Darren Sproles, S.D. | 50 | 10 | 60 | 0 | 9.0 | 127 |
2005 | Manuel White, Was. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2006 | • Leon Washington, NYJ | 650 | 270 | 920 | 4 | 141.0 | 35 |
2006 | P.J. Daniels, Balt. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2007 | Antonio Pittman, St.L. | 139 | 15 | 154 | 0 | 18.4 | 105 |
2007 | Dwayne Wright, Buff. | 94 | 17 | 111 | 0 | 14.1 | 118 |
2007 | Michael Bush, Oak. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2008 | Tashard Choice, Dall. | 472 | 185 | 657 | 2 | 98.7 | 53 |
2008 | Michael Bush, Oak. | 421 | 162 | 583 | 3 | 95.7 | 55 |
2009 | Mike Goodson, Car. | 49 | 15 | 64 | 0 | 8.4 | 133 |
2009 | Gartrell Johnson, NYG | 43 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 4.3 | 145 |
2009 | Andre Brown, NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2010 | Joe McKnight, NYJ | 189 | 20 | 209 | 0 | 23.9 | 90 |
2011 | • Roy Helu, Was. | 640 | 379 | 1,019 | 3 | 168.9 | 25 |
2011 | Kendall Hunter, S.F. | 473 | 195 | 668 | 2 | 94.8 | 45 |
2011 | Delone Carter, Ind. | 377 | 18 | 395 | 2 | 56.5 | 71 |
2011 | Jamie Harper, Ten. | 44 | 32 | 76 | 1 | 17.6 | 109 |
2011 | Taiwan Jones, Oak. | 73 | 25 | 98 | 0 | 11.8 | 120 |
2011 | Bilal Powell, NYJ | 21 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 3.8 | 145 |
2012 | Robert Turbin, Sea. | 354 | 181 | 535 | 0 | 72.5 | 57 |
2012 | Lamar Miller, Mia. | 250 | 45 | 295 | 1 | 41.5 | 82 |
2013 | Johnathan Franklin, G.B. | 107 | 30 | 137 | 1 | 23.7 | 104 |
2013 | Marcus Lattimore, S.F. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2014 | • Andre Williams, NYG | 721 | 130 | 851 | 7 | 145.1 | 27 |
2014 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 248 | 225 | 473 | 2 | 89.3 | 49 |
2014 | Lorenzo Taliaferro, Balt. | 292 | 114 | 406 | 4 | 72.6 | 65 |
2014 | James White, N.E. | 38 | 23 | 61 | 0 | 11.1 | 128 |
2014 | DeAnthony Thomas, K.C. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6.0 | 120 |
2014 | KaDeem Carey, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2015 | • Javorius Allen, Balt. | 514 | 353 | 867 | 3 | 149.7 | 29 |
2015 | • Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 537 | 279 | 816 | 7 | 147.6 | 30 |
2015 | Mike Davis, S.F. | 58 | 38 | 96 | 0 | 16.6 | 118 |
2016 | • Devontae Booker, Den. | 612 | 265 | 877 | 5 | 148.7 | 29 |
2016 | Kenneth Dixon, Balt. | 382 | 162 | 544 | 3 | 102.4 | 47 |
2016 | Tyler Ervin, Hou. | 3 | 18 | 21 | 0 | 5.1 | 140 |
2017 | • Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 370 | 353 | 723 | 4 | 154.4 | 28 |
2017 | • Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 556 | 262 | 818 | 6 | 142.8 | 34 |
2017 | Samaje Perine, Was. | 603 | 182 | 785 | 2 | 112.5 | 43 |
2017 | Wayne Gallman, NYG | 476 | 193 | 669 | 1 | 106.9 | 46 |
2017 | Marlon Mack, Ind. | 358 | 225 | 583 | 4 | 103.3 | 48 |
2017 | Joe Williams, S.F. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2017 | Donnel Pumphrey, Phil. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2018 | • Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 314 | 425 | 739 | 4 | 160.9 | 28 |
2018 | Ito Smith, Atl. | 315 | 152 | 467 | 4 | 97.7 | 50 |
2018 | Chase Edmonds, Ariz. | 208 | 103 | 311 | 2 | 63.1 | 72 |
2018 | Kalen Ballage, Mia. | 191 | 56 | 247 | 1 | 39.7 | 86 |
2018 | Mark Walton, Cin. | 34 | 41 | 75 | 0 | 12.5 | 109 |
2019 | Tony Pollard, Dall. | 455 | 107 | 562 | 3 | 91.2 | 53 |
2019 | Benny Snell, Pitt. | 426 | 23 | 449 | 2 | 59.9 | 67 |
2019 | Justice Hill, Balt. | 225 | 70 | 295 | 2 | 49.5 | 77 |
2019 | Bryce Love, Was. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2020 | Joshua Kelley, LAC | 354 | 148 | 502 | 2 | 85.2 | 58 |
2020 | DeeJay Dallas, Sea. | 108 | 111 | 219 | 3 | 56.9 | 73 |
2020 | Anthony McFarland, Pitt. | 113 | 54 | 167 | 0 | 22.7 | 102 |
2020 | LaMical Perine, NYJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | --- |
2021 | • Michael Carter, NYJ | 639 | 325 | 964 | 4 | 156.4 | 29 |
2021 | • Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 612 | 174 | 786 | 6 | 139.6 | 36 |
2021 | Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 606 | 123 | 729 | 5 | 116.9 | 47 |
2021 | Kene Nwangwu, Min. | 61 | 9 | 70 | 2 | 23.0 | 105 |
2022 | Isaiah Spiller, LAC | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Pierre Strong, N.E. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Hassan Haskins, Ten. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Zamir White, L.V. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2022 | Dameon Pierce, Hou. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan