The ruling is in: Deshaun Watson will be suspended for the first six games of the NFL season. Reportedly, Watson's camp won't appeal the lighter-than-expected penalty, which isn't at all surprising. The NFL still might, since it's less than they were supposedly hoping for, although perhaps they'll just let this interminable saga come to an end.
On our board -- the latest Cheat Sheet Update is available now -- we had been guessing that Watson would be hit with an eight-game suspension. He showed up 16th among quarterbacks. A six-game suspension seems to lift him 2-3 spots; ahead of two guys he was behind (Lance and Cousins) and in the area of Carr and Rodgers. Those guys are playing more games, but from Week 7 on, he should be more productive.
I suspect he'll actually be drafted a little earlier in most leagues; arguably a top-12 quarterback for the season, and firmly in the top 10 on a per-game basis (if you're comfortable getting by with a lesser quarterback the first six games, while waiting out that suspension). It's the kind of decision that will vary from league to league.
There are concerns. Besides a possible appeal, there could be more cases that come to light. There will certainly be some backlash. But if you can ignore that stuff and draft Watson, you're going to have a pretty great fantasy quarterback once the dust has settled.
Watson entered the league back in 2017, and after a hot start was hurt for most of that season. He missed all of last year, of course. But in his three full seasons as a starter (2018-2020), he posted 3 of the 20 best seasons in typical fantasy scoring (4 point TD passes) from that period of time.
| TOP 20 QUARTERBACK FANTASY SEASONS, 2018-2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Run | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 16 | 5097 | 50 | 272 | 2 | 496.1 | 1 |
| 2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 4544 | 37 | 421 | 8 | 473.5 | 1 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 3127 | 36 | 1206 | 7 | 463.0 | 1 |
| 2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 3971 | 26 | 819 | 11 | 450.5 | 2 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4299 | 48 | 149 | 3 | 440.3 | 3 |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 15 | 4740 | 38 | 308 | 2 | 437.8 | 4 |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 4823 | 33 | 444 | 3 | 437.6 | 5 |
| 2020 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 4212 | 40 | 513 | 2 | 435.9 | 6 |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 16 | 5129 | 34 | 98 | 3 | 429.2 | 2 |
| 2018 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 4924 | 35 | 125 | 3 | 428.2 | 3 |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 5109 | 33 | 250 | 1 | 426.5 | 2 |
| 2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 4902 | 30 | 277 | 3 | 412.8 | 3 |
| 2020 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 16 | 4633 | 40 | 6 | 3 | 410.3 | 7 |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 4593 | 39 | 148 | 0 | 405.9 | 4 |
| 2020 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 16 | 3819 | 33 | 266 | 7 | 398.6 | 8 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 4336 | 31 | 234 | 5 | 398.2 | 9 |
| 2018 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 4165 | 26 | 551 | 5 | 397.4 | 5 |
| 2018 | Jared Goff, LAR | 16 | 4688 | 32 | 108 | 2 | 397.2 | 6 |
| 2019 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 15 | 3852 | 26 | 413 | 7 | 389.5 | 4 |
| 2020 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 2757 | 26 | 1005 | 7 | 386.4 | 10 |
If you've already being doing best-ball drafts and selected Watson with a late pick, congratulations. You're probably going to have a pretty good quarterback for most of the season with that selection.
--Andy Richardson