ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp through the Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: Which second-year quarterback will have the best season?
JASON WOOD
That's easy, Trey Lance. I'm on record as saying the 2021 quarterback class will go down in history as one of the biggest busts ever. Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson didn't just struggle in their first years, they were historically bad. While there's hope for Lawrence, in particular, because he's out from under the Urban Meyer nightmare, history still points to Lawrence being more Jared Goff than Peyton Manning given his rookie performance. Meanwhile, Wilson and Fields appear to have suboptimal situations ranging from offensive line concerns to play-calling uncertainty. Mac Jones was good last year, but he wasn't great. This year he'll have to deal with Matt Patricia calling plays instead of Josh McDaniels. Good luck with that. Meanwhile, Lance steps into a ready-made competitive roster with talent up and down the roster. Kyle Shanahan -- one of the league's best offensive minds -- resolutely believed Lance would be a better fit for the Super Bowl contender than Jimmy Garoppolo. Lance isn't guaranteed success, but he has the most compelling floor and highest upside. He's worthy of a pick as a QB1 in 12-team leagues; the other four rookies should be no better than late round QB2s if you prioritize other positions in the middle rounds.
Wood is Senior Editor at Footballguys.com and has been with the company since its start in 2000. For more than 20 years, Footballguys has provided rankings, projections, and analysis to help fantasy managers dominate their leagues.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI
The stock answer for most is probably Trey Lance, but when you consider the ADP prices I'm more likely to target Trevor Lawrence. I refuse to accept every talent evaluator was wrong on Lawrence; let's be fair, he was set up to fail by last year's horrible coaching staff. This year Lawrence has better guidance and more interesting receivers to work with. Here comes a sophomore spike.
Pianowski has been with Yahoo Sports since 2008, covering a variety of sports. On the rare occasions when the computer is turned off, he enjoys word games, poker, music, film, game theory, and a variety of condiments. He lives in suburban Detroit. Pianowski was inducted into the FSWA Hall of Fame in 2021.
JUSTIN ELEFF
Trevor Lawrence may yet have the best career, but I have to believe at least one (maybe both) of the runners will be better for our purposes this season. Whatever you think of Trey Lance’s ability — and for the record, I am very in — he did lead all QBs in fantasy points per dropback as a rookie. Now he’ll get every opportunity to fail (or succeed!) as the starter, and the setup could hardly be better with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk commanding attention at every level of the field. To max out my chances of regretting this answer, let’s go: 1. Lance. 2. Fields. 3. Lawrence. 4. Jones. 5. Wilson (who might come in behind Mills, too).
Eleff hosts the Fantasy Index Podcast, available in the iTunes Store now. He has worked for Fantasy Index off and on all century.
IAN ALLAN
Trey Lance. He can run (which is huge in most fantasy scoring systems), and I have confidence that Kyle Shanahan will be able to design a passing game that he’ll be able to operate. In Shanahan’s five years in San Francisco, the 49ers have averaged 263 passing yards per game, and that despite never having a great quarterback. The 49ers have the nice trio of pass catchers: Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle. Considering what’s around him, Lance to me looks like he could be this year’s Jalen Hurts (a guy who isn’t a top-10 quarterback who puts up top-10 numbers). The decision to keep Jimmy Garoppolo around doesn’t bug me much; I think Lance is going to be good.
Allan co-founded Fantasy Football Index in 1987. He and fellow journalism student Bruce Taylor launched the first newsstand fantasy football magazine as a class project at the University of Washington. For more than three decades, Allan has written and edited most of the content published in the magazines, newsletters and at www.fantasyindex.com. An exhaustive researcher, he may be the only person in the country who has watched at least some of every preseason football game played since the early 1990s. Allan is a member of the FSTA Fantasy Sports Hall of Fame and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame.
DAVID DOREY
The quarterback class of 2021 under-performed expectations but we'll see several if not all improve this year. I like Trey Lance to lead the pack this year, combining his rushing and passing skills. And that's an easy call to make since Trevor Lawrence, Justn Fields, and Zach Wilson all went to terrible teams. They will be better, but Lance has better blockers, receivers, and a supporting defense. Mac Jones was a surprise, but the Pats look lost without OC Josh McDaniels.
Dorey co-founded The Huddle.com in 1997. He's ranked every player and projected every game for the last 23 years and is the author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. David has appeared on numerous radio, television, newspaper and magazines over the last two decades.
SCOTT SACHS
I'll tout Trey Lance as the 49ers are pretty loaded. But I'll also mix it up by casting a vote for a third-year quarterback who hasn't shown much more than those second-year passers, Tua Tagovailova. Truthfully, I haven't been on the Tua bandwagon due to the Fins' previous coaching situation and their uneven handling of him. Coming out of college, Tua looked a bit like Baker Mayfield to me; undersized and not overly athletic. However, like Mayfield, he was a good leader and won a lot of games. His first pro season, coaching didn't do much for his learning and professional growth. This season, Tua looks changed--for the better. Having an innovative offensive-minded coach, combined with a ton of talent at the skill positions, has obviously helped his confidence. Not too many quarterbacks have a better top 2 WRs to throw to either. Tagovailova, to my surprise, seems ready to step it up in the stacked AFC.
With 2 perfect seasons and multiple league championships to his credit, Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, featuring LIVE Talk & Text Advice. He is a 3-time Winner of the Fantasy Index Experts Auction League, as well as a previous Winner of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll.
ANDY RICHARDSON
I've been drafting Trevor Lawrence a lot as my second quarterback. The guy was considered a generational talent just a year ago, and one season stuck in the trainwreck that was Urban Meyer shouldn't change all that. There's more talent on this team than many suspect, I think, and Doug Pederson might be the right guy to help bring that out. I see a few clear top teams in the AFC, and then a whole bunch of middling franchises that could go either way. Lawrence has the ability to lift Jacksonville up among the longshot contenders. I'm not betting on him as a fantasy starter, but of all the No. 2s you can select late in drafts, I think he has a good chance to sneak up into the top 12 or 15.
Richardson has been a contributing writer and editor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and www.fantasyindex.com since 2002. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual experts draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.