Factoid

September 03, 2022

Treylon Burks

First-round wideouts about a 1-in-3 rookie proposition

What can be expected from Treylon Burks (and other first-round rookie wideouts)? Six were selected in the top 20 picks back in April, and most joined teams where there's the potential to be early starters. Actually putting up strong numbers right away in fantasy leagues, though, is a hit-or-miss kind of deal.

Drake London and Garrett Wilson join rebuilding teams with iffy quarterback situations. Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson and Treylon Burks will be working with veteran quarterbacks, but on teams that might prefer to run the ball. Burks specifically dealt with asthma and/or conditioning questions in August. Jameson Williams is likely to miss up to half his rookie season after tearing his ACL in January. Talented guys, all, but there are obstacles for each.

Being selected in the first round, at least, usually ensures getting some early opportunities to make an impact. And the last two years have produced a trio of immediate stars in Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase and Jaylen Waddle. So it happens.

I took a look at the rookie seasons from the last decade of first-round picks. There have been 40 such wide receivers, so exactly 4 per season.

Of those 40, about a third (14) have finished their rookie seasons ranked in the top 36 at the position in PPR leagues -- fantasy starters in typical 12-team, 3-WR leagues. Five more have made it into the top 50, which we'll call sometime starters.

Nearly half (19) didn't even finish in the top 60 at wideout. That includes a bunch of guys who are already on their second or third teams or out of the league entirely. Looked at in that light, nobody should be falling over themselves to select these players in drafts.

All first-rounders aren't created equal, though. Some of the flops -- Harry, Jenkins, Treadwell, Doctson -- weren't even selected in the top 20 picks (all six of this year's first-rounders were). With four of the six selected in the top 12, odds look a little better.

Rookie numbers from the last decade of first-round picks, sorted by PPR rank, are shown below.

FIRST-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS, 2012-2021 (ROOKIE NUMBERS)
Pk	Year	Player	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Rk
5	2021	JaMarr Chase, Cin.	128	81	1455	18.0	13	5
22	2020	Justin Jefferson, Min.	125	88	1400	15.9	7	6
12	2014	Odell Beckham, NYG	130	91	1305	14.3	12	8
6	2021	Jaylen Waddle, Mia.	140	104	1015	9.8	7	12
7	2014	Mike Evans, T.B.	122	68	1051	15.5	12	13
28	2014	Kelvin Benjamin, Car.	145	73	1008	13.8	9	16
26	2018	Calvin Ridley, Atl.	92	64	821	12.8	10	20
4	2015	Amari Cooper, Oak.	130	72	1070	14.9	6	21
17	2020	CeeDee Lamb, Dall.	111	74	935	12.6	7	22
4	2014	Sammy Watkins, Buff.	128	65	982	15.1	6	27
5	2012	Justin Blackmon, Jac.	132	64	865	13.5	5	29
10	2021	DeVonta Smith, Phil.	104	64	916	14.3	5	30
25	2020	Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.	96	60	748	12.5	7	35
24	2018	DJ Moore, Car.	82	55	788	14.3	2	36
29	2013	Cordarrelle Patterson, Min.	77	45	469	10.4	9	38
15	2020	Jerry Jeudy, Den.	113	52	856	16.5	3	45
20	2012	Kendall Wright, Ten.	104	64	626	9.8	4	45
25	2019	Marquise Brown, Balt.	71	46	584	12.7	7	46
27	2013	DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.	91	52	802	15.4	2	49
8	2013	Tavon Austin, St.L.	69	40	418	10.5	6	53
20	2014	Brandin Cooks, N.O.	69	53	550	10.4	4	56
21	2016	Will Fuller, Hou.	92	47	635	13.5	3	61
13	2012	Michael Floyd, Ariz.	86	45	562	12.5	2	65
27	2021	Rashod Bateman, Balt.	68	46	515	11.2	1	70
14	2015	DeVante Parker, Mia.	50	26	494	19.0	3	78
15	2016	Corey Coleman, Cle.	73	33	413	12.5	3	83
5	2017	Corey Davis, Ten.	65	34	375	11.0	0	85
20	2021	Kadarius Toney, NYG	57	39	420	10.8	0	89
12	2020	Henry Ruggs, L.V.	43	26	452	17.4	2	89
21	2020	Jalen Reagor, Phil.	54	31	396	12.8	2	91
20	2015	Nelson Agholor, Phil.	44	23	283	12.3	1	101
29	2015	Phillip Dorsett, Ind.	39	18	225	12.5	1	110
32	2019	N'Keal Harry, N.E.	24	12	105	8.8	2	124
7	2017	Mike Williams, LAC	23	11	95	8.6	0	139
22	2016	Josh Doctson, Was.	6	2	66	33.0	0	170
23	2016	Laquon Treadwell, Min.	3	1	15	15.0	0	188
9	2017	John Ross, Cin.	2	0	0		0	199
26	2015	Breshad Perriman, Balt.	0	0	0		0	999
7	2015	Kevin White, Chi.	0	0	0		0	999
30	2012	A.J. Jenkins, S.F.	1	0	0		0	999

--Andy Richardson

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