Denver’s defense has allowed only 16 touchdowns all year – 4 fewer than any other team. With that in mind, it’s reasonable to project Kansas City lower than usual. But at the same time, we’re still talking about Patrick Mahomes.
With a player of Mahomes’ ilk, there’s always substantial risk in sitting him down. He’s arguably the game’s best quarterback, and he’s really ruled the AFC West. He’s 23-4 as a starter inside the division, and he’s never lost against Denver.
Mahomes has started 27 games against divisional opponents, and Kansas City remarkably has scored more than 21 points in every one of those games. Kansas City has scored at least 28 in its last six in the division, with Mahomes throwing multiple touchdown passes in all of them.
He’s tough to handle, making it wildly risky to ever consider replacing him in a fantasy lineup.
We will point out, however, that in each of the last three years, Denver’s defense has had a game with at least some success against him. In each of the last two years, Kansas City has won games against the Broncos despite the offense scoring only one touchdown. (In 2020, Mahomes threw 1 TD, with KC settling for 5 field goals; and last year, KC got up to 22 points with its second touchdown coming on an interception return.) Back in 2019, there was a 23-point game against Denver, with 2 TDs and 3 field goals. More commonly, Kansas City is scoring 3-4 and even 5 TDs in games.
We’re slotting Mahomes lower than usual this week, but he’s nonetheless definitely still an top-level prospect.
| PATRICK MAHOMES INSIDE THE AFC WEST | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yards | TD | Int | Rushing |
| 2017 | at Den. | W 27-24 | 22 | 35 | 284 | 0 | 1 | 7-10-0 |
| 2018 | at LAC | W 38-28 | 15 | 27 | 256 | 4 | 0 | 5-21-0 |
| 2018 | at Den. | W 27-23 | 28 | 45 | 304 | 1 | 0 | 3-7-1 |
| 2018 | Den. | W 30-23 | 24 | 34 | 303 | 4 | 1 | 2-(-1)-0 |
| 2018 | at Oak. | W 40-33 | 23 | 38 | 295 | 4 | 0 | 9-52-0 |
| 2018 | LAC | L 28-29 | 24 | 34 | 243 | 2 | 0 | 2-3-0 |
| 2018 | Oak. | W 35-3 | 14 | 24 | 281 | 2 | 1 | 2-1-0 |
| 2019 | at Oak. | W 28-10 | 30 | 44 | 443 | 4 | 0 | 1-(-1)-0 |
| 2019 | at Den. | W 30-6 | 10 | 11 | 76 | 1 | 0 | 1-2-0 |
| 2019 | at LAC | W 24-17 | 19 | 32 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 5-59-0 |
| 2019 | Oak. | W 40-9 | 15 | 29 | 175 | 1 | 0 | 3-25-1 |
| 2019 | Den. | W 23-3 | 27 | 34 | 340 | 2 | 1 | 3-11-0 |
| 2019 | LAC | W 31-21 | 16 | 25 | 174 | 1 | 1 | 7-21-0 |
| 2020 | at LAC | W 23-20 | 27 | 47 | 302 | 2 | 0 | 6-54-0 |
| 2020 | L.V. | L 32-40 | 22 | 43 | 340 | 2 | 1 | 6-21-1 |
| 2020 | at Den. | W 43-16 | 15 | 23 | 200 | 1 | 0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2020 | at L.V. | W 35-31 | 34 | 45 | 348 | 2 | 1 | 4-16-0 |
| 2020 | Den. | W 22-16 | 25 | 40 | 318 | 1 | 0 | 4-26-0 |
| 2021 | LAC | L 24-30 | 27 | 44 | 260 | 3 | 2 | 4-45-0 |
| 2021 | at L.V. | W 41-14 | 35 | 50 | 406 | 5 | 0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021 | Den. | W 22-9 | 15 | 29 | 184 | 0 | 1 | 4-12-1 |
| 2021 | L.V. | W 48-9 | 20 | 24 | 258 | 2 | 0 | 4-20-0 |
| 2021 | at LAC | W 34-28 | 31 | 47 | 410 | 3 | 1 | 3-32-0 |
| 2021 | at Den. | W 28-24 | 27 | 44 | 270 | 2 | 0 | 9-54-0 |
| 2022 | LAC | W 27-24 | 24 | 35 | 235 | 2 | 0 | 2-(-1)-0 |
| 2022 | L.V. | W 30-29 | 29 | 43 | 292 | 4 | 0 | 4-28-0 |
| 2022 | at LAC | W 30-27 | 20 | 34 | 329 | 3 | 0 | 4-23-0 |
—Ian Allan