It has been suggested a couple of times recently that rookie receivers are on the rise. I saw it in the comments a few days ago, and Andy posted something about a month or so ago. But is that actually true? When you select a rookie receiver today, do you (in general) have a higher probability of success than you would have 10, 20 or 30 years ago?
I poked around with the numbers, and they support the premise.
To avoid the issues of statistical inflation (with more games and rules tweaked to juice up passing) I looked not at season-ending stat totals but instead players placed at the position. (A player finishing with 600 yards and 4 TDs today, after all, is an afterthought, while he would have been an every-week starter in some earlier seasons.)
For each season since 1970, I counted up three different categories of players: top-30 receivers, top-40 receivers and top-50 receivers. For top-30 receivers, those players definitely have value; they tend to be “starters” for most weeks in most fantasy leagues. So I was definitely interested in those. But with many leagues having 12 teams and starting three receivers (or two receivers and a flex), the top 40 is similarly meaningful. (And to clarify, when I saw “top 40”, I’m including all of the players in the top 30, plus those ranking 31st to 40th).
And as long as we’ve got the numbers in front of us, why not also include the top 50? In a typical 12-team league, after all, teams are picking 5-7 players at the position. So a top-50 receiver is a guy who’s definitely worthy of being selected.
The tabulated numbers appear below, and they support the notnion that rookie receivers are becoming significant sooner than they have in the past. In each of the last four years, 3-4 rookie wide receivers have finished with top-30 numbers (using PPR scoring). That’s never happened before (there have been seasons with 3 and 4, but never four years in a row.) In two of those seasons, there were four such wide receivers. In the previous 45 years, there were only three of those seasons (with four rookies in the top 30).
Similarly with top-40 receivers, there have been at least four rookies in the top 40 in the last four years. That’s never happened before. Closest run I see comes from the mid-‘80s, when there was a stretch of at least four rookies in four of six years. Twice there have been six rookies in the top 40, and those are both recent seasons (2014 and 2019) in the grand scheme of things.
Also with top-50 receivers, the best numbers have come recently. Four years in a row there’s been at least 5 in the top 50. That’s never happened before. And this current run includes a season with 8 (the highest of any year), and a season with 7. There’s one other four-year run of at least four rookies each year, and it comes from not long ago (2011-14).
| NOTABLE ROOKIE WR BY SEASON | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | top 30 | top 40 | top 50 |
| 1970 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 1971 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 1972 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 1973 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 1974 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 1975 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 1976 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 1977 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 1978 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 1979 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 1980 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 1981 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1983 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 1984 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 1985 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 1986 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 1987 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 1988 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 1989 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 1990 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 1991 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 1993 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 1994 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 1995 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 1996 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 1997 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 1998 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1999 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2000 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2001 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2002 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2003 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2004 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 2005 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2006 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2007 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2008 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 2009 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2011 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2012 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2013 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 2014 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 2015 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2016 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 2017 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 2018 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2019 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2020 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 2021 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 2022 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
So where does this leave us? I think we should all be more open to the idea of firing off some middle- and later-round picks on first-year receivers. But at the same time, the general consensus is that the 2023 draft is a lesser one for the position. It’s early (let’s see who gets picked and where they go) but I would think that for this upcoming season, we’ll more likely be looking at dip for rookie receivers, with perhaps 2 in the top 30 and another one that makes the top 50. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (pictured) might be the first one chosen, but he missed most of last year and isn’t as good as another receiver (Marvin Harrison Jr.) who’s still on that team.
In the above chart, there is no counting of top-20 receivers – the best of the best. I didn’t think there were enough of them to make a year-by-year counting meaningful. But for those interested in seeing those names, those 38 guys appear below
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS IN THE TOP 20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yards | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 1971 | Randy Vataha, N.E. | 51 | 872 | 17.1 | 9 | 192.2 | 4 |
| 1971 | Ken Burrow, Atl. | 33 | 741 | 22.5 | 6 | 143.6 | 12 |
| 1971 | Dave Smith, Pitt. | 47 | 663 | 14.1 | 5 | 142.3 | 14 |
| 1973 | Isaac Curtis, Cin. | 45 | 843 | 18.7 | 9 | 182.2 | 4 |
| 1974 | Nat Moore, Mia. | 37 | 605 | 16.4 | 2 | 112.7 | 17 |
| 1975 | Alfred Jenkins, Atl. | 38 | 767 | 20.2 | 6 | 150.7 | 16 |
| 1976 | Sammy White, Min. | 51 | 906 | 17.8 | 10 | 200.6 | 4 |
| 1976 | Steve Largent, Sea. | 54 | 705 | 13.1 | 4 | 147.1 | 14 |
| 1977 | Wesley Walker, NYJ | 35 | 740 | 21.1 | 3 | 129.5 | 17 |
| 1978 | John Jefferson, S.D. | 56 | 1,001 | 17.9 | 13 | 234.8 | 2 |
| 1978 | James Lofton, G.B. | 46 | 818 | 17.8 | 6 | 165.1 | 13 |
| 1981 | Cris Collinsworth, Cin. | 67 | 1,009 | 15.1 | 8 | 215.9 | 10 |
| 1983 | Willie Gault, Chi. | 40 | 836 | 20.9 | 8 | 174.7 | 18 |
| 1984 | Louis Lipps, Pitt. | 45 | 860 | 19.1 | 11 | 204.1 | 13 |
| 1985 | Eddie Brown, Cin. | 53 | 942 | 17.8 | 8 | 208.1 | 9 |
| 1986 | Bill Brooks, Ind. | 65 | 1,131 | 17.4 | 8 | 226.6 | 8 |
| 1986 | Ernest Givins, Hou. | 61 | 1,062 | 17.4 | 4 | 206.0 | 15 |
| 1995 | Joey Galloway, Sea. | 67 | 1,039 | 15.5 | 9 | 240.3 | 17 |
| 1996 | Terry Glenn, N.E. | 90 | 1,132 | 12.6 | 6 | 243.4 | 12 |
| 1996 | Eddie Kennison, St.L. | 54 | 924 | 17.1 | 11 | 212.4 | 19 |
| 1998 | Randy Moss, Min. | 69 | 1,313 | 19.0 | 17 | 306.7 | 2 |
| 2003 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 101 | 1,377 | 13.6 | 8 | 290.7 | 3 |
| 2004 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 80 | 1,193 | 14.9 | 7 | 244.3 | 14 |
| 2006 | Marques Colston, N.O. | 70 | 1,038 | 14.8 | 8 | 221.8 | 16 |
| 2008 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 91 | 980 | 10.8 | 5 | 231.9 | 14 |
| 2010 | Mike Williams, T.B. | 65 | 964 | 14.8 | 11 | 227.4 | 16 |
| 2011 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 65 | 1,057 | 16.3 | 7 | 218.0 | 17 |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 71 | 1,046 | 14.7 | 8 | 223.6 | 18 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 91 | 1,305 | 14.3 | 12 | 297.0 | 8 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 68 | 1,051 | 15.5 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1,008 | 13.8 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 92 | 1,137 | 12.4 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 |
| 2016 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 61 | 593 | 9.7 | 12 | 219.0 | 18 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 58 | 917 | 15.8 | 8 | 197.7 | 20 |
| 2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 12.8 | 10 | 208.8 | 20 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 88 | 1,400 | 15.9 | 7 | 274.2 | 6 |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 81 | 1,455 | 18.0 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 104 | 1,015 | 9.8 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
—Ian Allan