Quentin Johnston gets tossed about as likely to be one of the first receivers off the board, but he played at Texas Christian, and that makes me nervous. They don’t seem to play much defense in the Big 12, and that’s led to some players from that conference being overdrafted.
Josh Doctson and Jalen Reagor preceded Johnston at TCU, and those picks didn’t turn out at all. (Doctson looked like a similar kind of player, while Reagor, painfully, was selected before the Vikings chose Justin Jefferson.) The Browns had a big miss on Corey Coleman (Baylor). James Washington (Oklahoma State) and Denzel Mims (Baylor) were chosen in the second round. The Patriots picked Tyquan Thornton (Baylor) in the second round last year, and he looked so-so in his first season.
There’s also been some hits, of course. CeeDee Lamb is having a good career, and Josh Gordon was one of the top few receivers in the league briefly until his problems with addiction derailed his career. But the miss rate has been higher with players from that conference.
Since 2012, 102 wide receivers have been chosen in the first or second round – about 9-10 per season. Of the 23 who’ve put up top-30 numbers (using PPR scoring) in their first season, only two have been from the Big 12: Lamb and Justin Blackmon (who had a couple great games as a rookie before substance abuse issues torpedoed his career).
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (since 2012) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (pick) | School | Rec | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. (5) | Louisiana State | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
| 2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. (22) | Louisiana State | 88 | 1,400 | 7 | 274.2 | 6 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. (47) | Ohio State | 92 | 1,137 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG (12) | Louisiana State | 91 | 1,305 | 12 | 297.0 | 8 |
| 2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. (6) | Alabama | 104 | 1,015 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. (7) | Texas A&M | 68 | 1,051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. (28) | Florida State | 73 | 1,008 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
| 2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. (26) | Alabama | 64 | 821 | 10 | 208.8 | 20 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. (62) | Southern Cal | 58 | 917 | 8 | 197.7 | 20 |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ (10) | Ohio State | 83 | 1,103 | 4 | 217.7 | 21 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. (4) | Alabama | 72 | 1,070 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. (17) | Oklahoma | 74 | 935 | 7 | 219.7 | 22 |
| 2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. (51) | Mississippi | 52 | 1,051 | 9 | 217.1 | 22 |
| 2020 | Chase Claypool, Pitt. (49) | Notre Dame | 62 | 873 | 11 | 216.9 | 23 |
| 2022 | Chris Olave, N.O. (11) | Ohio State | 72 | 1,042 | 4 | 202.2 | 24 |
| 2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. (42) | Vanderbilt | 67 | 872 | 8 | 202.2 | 25 |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. (4) | Clemson | 65 | 982 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 |
| 2020 | Tee Higgins, Cin. (33) | Clemson | 67 | 908 | 6 | 196.6 | 28 |
| 2022 | Drake London, Atl. (8) | Southern Cal | 72 | 866 | 4 | 184.6 | 28 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. (5) | Oklahoma St. | 64 | 865 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
| 2019 | DK Metcalf, Sea. (64) | Mississippi | 58 | 900 | 7 | 193.1 | 29 |
| 2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. (63) | Louisiana State | 84 | 758 | 5 | 189.4 | 30 |
| 2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. (10) | Alabama | 64 | 916 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
Since 2012, 14 wide receivers from the Big 12 have been picked in the first or second round, and the hit rate (at least in terms of first-year production) hasn’t been great.
| BIG 12 RECEIVERS SELECTED IN THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS (since 2012) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (pick) | School | Rec | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. (17) | Oklahoma | 74 | 935 | 7 | 219.7 | 22 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. (5) | Oklahoma St. | 64 | 865 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
| 2016 | Sterling Shepard, NYG (40) | Oklahoma | 65 | 683 | 8 | 184.4 | 36 |
| 2012 | Josh Gordon, Cle. (supp) | Baylor | 50 | 805 | 5 | 160.5 | 41 |
| 2012 | Kendall Wright, Ten. (20) | Baylor | 64 | 626 | 4 | 151.0 | 45 |
| 2019 | Hollywood Brown, Balt. (25) | Oklahoma | 46 | 584 | 7 | 146.4 | 46 |
| 2018 | Courtland Sutton, Den. (40) | SMU | 42 | 704 | 4 | 136.3 | 50 |
| 2016 | Corey Coleman, Cle. (15) | Baylor | 33 | 413 | 3 | 93.3 | 83 |
| 2020 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. (21) | TCU | 31 | 396 | 2 | 87.2 | 91 |
| 2012 | Ryan Broyles, Det. (54) | Oklahoma | 22 | 310 | 2 | 65.0 | 94 |
| 2022 | Tyquan Thornton, N.E. (50) | Baylor | 22 | 247 | 3 | 66.3 | 98 |
| 2020 | Denzel Mims, NYJ (59) | Baylor | 23 | 357 | 0 | 60.7 | 107 |
| 2018 | James Washington, Pitt. (60) | Oklahoma St. | 16 | 217 | 1 | 43.7 | 125 |
| 2016 | Josh Doctson, Was. (22) | TCU | 2 | 66 | 0 | 8.6 | 170 |
| 2023 | Quentin Johnston | TCU | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Johnston is big. He measured 6-foot-3 and 208 pounds at the combine – similar to A.J. Green. Johnston didn’t run at Indianapolis but posted a 40.5 in the vertical and 11-foot-2 in the board jump, which are good numbers. That he didn’t want to run tells me he was worried the time wouldn’t be that good. He caught 60 passes for 1,069 yards last year, averaging almost 18 yards per catch, but caught only 6 of his team’s 33 touchdown passes.
In his highlights package, there are plenty of plays where he’s running by seemingly lesser defenders, but there are also a couple of huge catches in the national semifinal game against Michigan – a quality opponent on a big stage. He caught 6 passes for 163 yards in that game, including a crossing route he turned into a 76-yard touchdown. In the national championship game against Georgia nine days later, he was held to 1 catch for 3 yards. He didn’t get much separation in that game against Kelee Ringo (who’ll probably be drafted in the second), but there was also the issue of there not being much time to throw – that was a great defense.
Let’s see where he goes. Situation is important. I’ll try to keep an open mind, but I’m scarred from having missed on some of these Big 12 guys in the past. (I was in on Corey Coleman, thinking he was going to be another Steve Smith.) In general, Johnston to me looks more like a player that NFL teams should be drafting well into the second round rather than with their first choice.
—Ian Allan