When the NFL Draft kicks off tonight, there's little consensus as to where Kentucky quarterback Will Levis will be selected. One wild rumor circulating this week has him going No. 1 to Carolina. No. 2 to Houston is possible. Another has him slipping out of the top 10 and being drafted by the Patriots. A polarizing prospect.
If you place the most stock in size and arm strength, Levis might be your guy. (Check the picture; he's a monster.) At 6-foot-4 and 229 pounds, he's bigger than any of the expected first-round quarterbacks (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson) but the very raw Richardson. And I think he has the strongest arm (it's either him or Richardson), with him seeming to zip the ball in to his receivers effortlessly, able to do so without planting his feet or getting set.
But that arm strength might get him into trouble at times, influencing him to attempt throws that are better not made. He threw 13 interceptions as a junior and 10 more as a senior. Those numbers don't seem terribly high until you consider that he wasn't running a pass-happy offense. Last year he averaged a modest 26 pass attempts and 219 yards per game. His interception rate of 3.5 percent on those attempts was 3rd-highest among first-round quarterbacks in their final year of college in the last 20 years, better than only Jameis Winston (who's continued to struggle in this regard as a pro) and Jordan Love (TBD).
Table shows final year of college passing stats for all first-rounders (and expected first-rounders) in the last 20 years, sorted by interception rates.
| INTERCEPTION RATES FOR 1ST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2004-2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | School | Com | Att | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | Int% |
| Jameis Winston | Florida State | 305 | 467 | 65.3 | 3907 | 25 | 18 | 3.9% |
| Jordan Love | Utah State | 293 | 473 | 61.9 | 3402 | 20 | 17 | 3.6% |
| Will Levis | Kentucky | 185 | 283 | 65.4 | 2406 | 19 | 10 | 3.5% |
| J.P. Losman | Tulane | 251 | 422 | 59.5 | 3077 | 33 | 14 | 3.3% |
| Vince Young | Texas | 212 | 325 | 65.2 | 3036 | 26 | 10 | 3.1% |
| Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M | 300 | 429 | 69.9 | 4114 | 37 | 13 | 3.0% |
| Deshaun Watson | Clemson | 388 | 579 | 67.0 | 4593 | 41 | 17 | 2.9% |
| Matt Ryan | Boston College | 388 | 654 | 59.3 | 4507 | 31 | 19 | 2.9% |
| Ryan Tannehill | Texas A&M | 327 | 531 | 61.6 | 3744 | 29 | 15 | 2.8% |
| Anthony Richardson | Florida | 176 | 327 | 53.8 | 2549 | 17 | 9 | 2.8% |
| Mark Sanchez | Southern California | 241 | 366 | 65.8 | 3207 | 34 | 10 | 2.7% |
| Jake Locker | Washington | 184 | 332 | 55.4 | 2265 | 17 | 9 | 2.7% |
| Sam Darnold | Southern California | 303 | 480 | 63.1 | 4143 | 26 | 13 | 2.7% |
| Trevor Lawrence | Clemson | 231 | 334 | 69.2 | 3153 | 24 | 9 | 2.7% |
| Christian Ponder | Florida State | 184 | 299 | 61.5 | 2044 | 20 | 8 | 2.7% |
| Justin Fields | Ohio State | 158 | 225 | 70.2 | 2100 | 22 | 6 | 2.7% |
| Matthew Stafford | Georgia | 235 | 383 | 61.4 | 3459 | 25 | 10 | 2.6% |
| Jason Campbell | Auburn | 188 | 270 | 69.6 | 2700 | 20 | 7 | 2.6% |
| EJ Manuel | Florida State | 263 | 387 | 68.0 | 3397 | 23 | 10 | 2.6% |
| Aaron Rodgers | California | 209 | 316 | 66.1 | 2566 | 24 | 8 | 2.5% |
| Cam Newton | Auburn | 185 | 280 | 66.1 | 2854 | 30 | 7 | 2.5% |
| Andrew Luck | Stanford | 288 | 404 | 71.3 | 3517 | 37 | 10 | 2.5% |
| Jared Goff | California | 341 | 529 | 64.5 | 4719 | 43 | 13 | 2.5% |
| Blake Bortles | Central Florida | 259 | 382 | 67.8 | 3581 | 25 | 9 | 2.4% |
| JaMarcus Russell | Louisiana State | 232 | 342 | 67.8 | 3129 | 28 | 8 | 2.3% |
| Lamar Jackson | Louisville | 254 | 430 | 59.1 | 3660 | 27 | 10 | 2.3% |
| Brandon Weeden | Oklahoma State | 408 | 564 | 72.3 | 4727 | 37 | 13 | 2.3% |
| Daniel Jones | Duke | 237 | 392 | 60.5 | 2674 | 22 | 9 | 2.3% |
| Eli Manning | Mississippi | 275 | 441 | 62.4 | 3600 | 29 | 10 | 2.3% |
| Josh Allen | Wyoming | 152 | 270 | 56.3 | 1812 | 16 | 6 | 2.2% |
| Josh Rosen | UCLA | 283 | 452 | 62.6 | 3756 | 26 | 10 | 2.2% |
| Josh Freeman | Kansas State | 224 | 382 | 58.6 | 2945 | 20 | 8 | 2.1% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Miami (Ohio) | 342 | 495 | 69.1 | 4486 | 37 | 10 | 2.0% |
| Jay Cutler | Vanderbilt | 273 | 462 | 59.1 | 3073 | 21 | 9 | 1.9% |
| Carson Wentz | North Dakota State | 130 | 208 | 62.5 | 1651 | 17 | 4 | 1.9% |
| Blaine Gabbert | Missouri | 301 | 475 | 63.4 | 3186 | 16 | 9 | 1.9% |
| Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | 260 | 377 | 69.0 | 4361 | 42 | 7 | 1.9% |
| Matt Leinart | Southern California | 283 | 431 | 65.7 | 3815 | 28 | 8 | 1.9% |
| Patrick Mahomes | Texas Tech | 388 | 591 | 65.7 | 5052 | 41 | 10 | 1.7% |
| Sam Bradford | Oklahoma | 328 | 483 | 67.9 | 4720 | 50 | 8 | 1.7% |
| Tim Tebow | Florida | 213 | 314 | 67.8 | 2895 | 21 | 5 | 1.6% |
| C.J. Stroud | Ohio State | 258 | 389 | 66.3 | 3688 | 41 | 6 | 1.5% |
| Dwayne Haskins | Ohio State | 373 | 533 | 70.0 | 4831 | 50 | 8 | 1.5% |
| Brady Quinn | Notre Dame | 289 | 467 | 61.9 | 3426 | 37 | 7 | 1.5% |
| Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | 285 | 404 | 70.5 | 4627 | 43 | 6 | 1.5% |
| Robert Griffin III | Baylor | 291 | 406 | 71.7 | 4293 | 37 | 6 | 1.5% |
| Philip Rivers | North Carolina State | 348 | 483 | 72.0 | 4491 | 34 | 7 | 1.4% |
| Kenny Pickett | Pittsburgh | 334 | 497 | 67.2 | 4319 | 42 | 7 | 1.4% |
| Justin Herbert | Oregon | 286 | 428 | 66.8 | 3471 | 32 | 6 | 1.4% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | North Carolina | 304 | 447 | 68.0 | 3748 | 30 | 6 | 1.3% |
| Bryce Young | Alabama | 245 | 380 | 64.5 | 3328 | 32 | 5 | 1.3% |
| Alex Smith | Utah | 214 | 317 | 67.5 | 2952 | 32 | 4 | 1.3% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Alabama | 180 | 252 | 71.4 | 2840 | 33 | 3 | 1.2% |
| Joe Burrow | Louisiana State | 402 | 527 | 76.3 | 5671 | 60 | 6 | 1.1% |
| Mac Jones | Alabama | 311 | 402 | 77.4 | 4500 | 41 | 4 | 1.0% |
| Joe Flacco | Delaware | 331 | 521 | 63.5 | 4263 | 23 | 5 | 1.0% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville | 303 | 427 | 71.0 | 3970 | 31 | 4 | 0.9% |
| Paxton Lynch | Memphis | 296 | 443 | 66.8 | 3776 | 28 | 4 | 0.9% |
| Marcus Mariota | Oregon | 304 | 445 | 68.3 | 4454 | 42 | 4 | 0.9% |
| Zach Wilson | Brigham Young | 247 | 336 | 73.5 | 3692 | 33 | 3 | 0.9% |
| Trey Lance | North Dakota State | 192 | 287 | 66.9 | 2786 | 28 | 0 | 0.0% |
Notably, there are a couple of guys at the bottom of this table (Zach Wilson, Paxton Lynch) who have also flopped. Matt Ryan, near the top, had a pretty nice career. But it's something that will affect how teams view Levis; definitely more careless with the football than the guy most expect will go No. 1, Young.
I like Levis; the physical tools are there, and I believe mistakes can be corrected by strong coaching staffs. I am hoping he ends up with the right team who can develop him properly. Carolina would be a nice spot, but since I don't think that will happen, the Colts would be a good location. New head coach Shane Steichen deserves a lot of credit for his work with Jalen Hurts; he also was offensive coordinator for Justin Herbert in his rookie season. Levis isn't the kind of runner Hurts is (few are) but best not to overrate his negative rushing yards a year ago; he was dealing with a turf-toe injury. The previous season he rushed for 376 yards and 9 touchdowns, so there's some dual-threat potential.
The way teams covet franchise quarterbacks these days, I don't think he's falling out of the top 5 picks (and maybe he won't get by Houston, whose new offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, had worked as an assistant in San Francisco the last few years). We will find out tonight.
--Andy Richardson