I was surprised to see the Falcons select Bijan Robinson. I didn’t see running back as a big need for them, with Tyler Allgeier rushing for 1,035 yards, a team record for a rookie. They’ve also gotten some good production out of Cordarrelle Patterson the last two years.
One of Robinson’s big selling points is his pass-catching ability. He’s got really good hands. But the Falcons haven’t passed much to their running backs and haven’t thrown it much in general. While this will presumably change some in the future, they don’t like a team that will really tap into that aspect of Robinson’s game.
I’m not suggesting Robinson can’t make Atlanta’s offense better, but I thought they would have gotten more value by looking at other positions.
With this pick, however, I think we can include the Falcons as decent candidates to lead the league in rushing. They ranked 3rd in rushing last year, averaging 160 yards per game. They got more rushing yards from their running backs than any other team (130 per game).
Atlanta should be running the ball a bunch. That much we can say with relative certainty. They ran the ball on 55 percent of their plays last year, 2nd-most in the league, and 9th-most by any team in the 32-team era.
Out of curiosity, I pulled up all past offenses (since 2002) that have run the ball on over half of their offensive downs. I then looked at how they performed in their next season. That is, when a team runs the ball a ton, can we in general count on it to do something similar the next season?
The 59 offenses in question appear below. Using standard scoring (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards) 33 of them finished with top-10 rushing numbers the next season. Just over half, which is a little lower than I expected. 43 of them at least finished with above-average rushing production, while 16 finished with below-average rushing stats (as a team). So almost a 3-1 ratio in terms of above- versus below-average rushing.
I think we’re going to see a run-havy offense, with Robinson and Allgeier (pictured) getting most of the carries, but Patterson also chipping in.
| OFFENSES RUSHING MORE THAN PASSING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Prev | Pct | Yards | TDR | Points | Rk |
| 2005 | Pittsburgh | 61.1% | 57.2% | 2,223 | 21 | 348.3 | 5 |
| 2010 | NY Jets | 58.9% | 49.1% | 2,374 | 14 | 321.4 | 7 |
| 2006 | Pittsburgh | 57.2% | 45.1% | 1,992 | 16 | 295.2 | 10 |
| 2023 | Chicago | 56.2% | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2020 | Baltimore | 56.0% | 55.9% | 3,071 | 24 | 451.1 | 1 |
| 2009 | Baltimore | 56.0% | 46.2% | 2,200 | 22 | 352.0 | 5 |
| 2021 | Baltimore | 55.9% | 43.6% | 2,479 | 18 | 355.9 | 6 |
| 2009 | Atlanta | 55.4% | 43.0% | 1,876 | 15 | 277.6 | 12 |
| 2023 | Atlanta | 55.3% | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2013 | Seattle | 55.0% | 52.3% | 2,188 | 14 | 302.8 | 8 |
| 2004 | Baltimore | 54.7% | 49.5% | 2,063 | 11 | 272.3 | 12 |
| 2005 | Atlanta | 54.1% | 52.0% | 2,546 | 17 | 356.6 | 4 |
| 2009 | Carolina | 53.7% | 51.3% | 2,498 | 18 | 357.8 | 3 |
| 2007 | Atlanta | 53.7% | 39.0% | 1,520 | 7 | 194.0 | 29 |
| 2012 | Denver | 53.7% | 44.1% | 1,832 | 12 | 255.2 | 17 |
| 2005 | NY Jets | 52.9% | 42.3% | 1,328 | 10 | 192.8 | 29 |
| 2019 | Seattle | 52.8% | 46.0% | 2,200 | 15 | 310.0 | 7 |
| 2005 | San Diego | 52.7% | 45.5% | 2,072 | 22 | 339.2 | 6 |
| 2006 | Denver | 52.6% | 50.2% | 2,152 | 12 | 287.2 | 13 |
| 2014 | San Francisco | 52.5% | 46.6% | 2,176 | 10 | 277.6 | 10 |
| 2003 | Miami | 52.5% | 50.3% | 1,817 | 14 | 265.7 | 16 |
| 2008 | Tennessee | 52.4% | 52.2% | 2,199 | 24 | 363.9 | 4 |
| 2014 | Seattle | 52.3% | 51.4% | 2,762 | 20 | 396.2 | 1 |
| 2011 | Kansas City | 52.3% | 47.7% | 1,893 | 5 | 219.3 | 24 |
| 2013 | Washington | 52.2% | 40.9% | 2,164 | 14 | 300.4 | 9 |
| 2009 | Tennessee | 52.2% | 50.4% | 2,592 | 19 | 373.2 | 2 |
| 2012 | Houston | 52.2% | 46.6% | 2,123 | 19 | 326.3 | 7 |
| 2006 | Chicago | 52.1% | 48.3% | 1,918 | 14 | 275.8 | 16 |
| 2006 | Atlanta | 52.0% | 53.7% | 2,939 | 9 | 347.9 | 3 |
| 2015 | Houston | 51.9% | 41.9% | 1,731 | 7 | 215.1 | 21 |
| 2007 | Jacksonville | 51.9% | 51.1% | 2,391 | 18 | 347.1 | 2 |
| 2004 | Denver | 51.9% | 49.9% | 2,333 | 13 | 311.3 | 7 |
| 2004 | Carolina | 51.8% | 42.6% | 1,582 | 10 | 218.2 | 26 |
| 2015 | Seattle | 51.4% | 48.3% | 2,268 | 10 | 286.8 | 9 |
| 2007 | San Diego | 51.4% | 49.5% | 2,039 | 19 | 317.9 | 3 |
| 2010 | Carolina | 51.3% | 44.5% | 1,846 | 7 | 226.6 | 20 |
| 2010 | Cleveland | 51.3% | 44.6% | 1,646 | 13 | 242.6 | 16 |
| 2021 | New England | 51.3% | 46.5% | 2,151 | 24 | 359.1 | 5 |
| 2008 | Minnesota | 51.2% | 51.2% | 2,332 | 15 | 323.2 | 7 |
| 2009 | Minnesota | 51.2% | 44.3% | 1,918 | 19 | 305.8 | 10 |
| 2022 | Philadelphia | 51.2% | 48.4% | 2,509 | 32 | 442.9 | 1 |
| 2008 | Pittsburgh | 51.1% | 45.3% | 1,690 | 16 | 265.0 | 16 |
| 2007 | Kansas City | 51.1% | 38.3% | 1,248 | 6 | 160.8 | 32 |
| 2008 | Jacksonville | 51.1% | 42.4% | 1,774 | 17 | 279.4 | 14 |
| 2006 | Seattle | 50.9% | 46.3% | 1,923 | 8 | 240.3 | 22 |
| 2008 | Oakland | 50.8% | 49.9% | 1,987 | 9 | 252.7 | 20 |
| 2013 | San Francisco | 50.8% | 52.5% | 2,201 | 18 | 328.1 | 3 |
| 2004 | Green Bay | 50.8% | 41.9% | 1,908 | 9 | 244.8 | 19 |
| 2005 | New England | 50.6% | 42.6% | 1,512 | 16 | 247.2 | 17 |
| 2006 | Washington | 50.6% | 50.1% | 2,216 | 13 | 299.6 | 8 |
| 2021 | Tennessee | 50.5% | 48.6% | 2,404 | 23 | 378.4 | 3 |
| 2006 | Carolina | 50.5% | 42.6% | 1,659 | 7 | 207.9 | 27 |
| 2010 | Tennessee | 50.4% | 44.8% | 1,727 | 13 | 250.7 | 14 |
| 2003 | Atlanta | 50.4% | 46.8% | 1,949 | 17 | 296.9 | 10 |
| 2004 | Miami | 50.3% | 37.6% | 1,339 | 10 | 193.9 | 31 |
| 2011 | Jacksonville | 50.2% | 48.8% | 1,970 | 9 | 251.0 | 19 |
| 2007 | Denver | 50.2% | 44.0% | 1,957 | 10 | 255.7 | 15 |
| 2012 | San Francisco | 50.2% | 50.8% | 2,491 | 17 | 351.1 | 5 |
| 2015 | Dallas | 50.1% | 42.1% | 1,890 | 8 | 237.0 | 17 |
| 2016 | Buffalo | 50.1% | 48.6% | 2,630 | 29 | 437.0 | 1 |
| 2007 | Washington | 50.1% | 47.3% | 1,871 | 15 | 277.1 | 9 |
| 2023 | Baltimore | 50.0% | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan