In March and April, we heard a lot about what was supposedly a deep draft class for running backs. Different people might have different views as to what that means, but what actually happened was that teams didn't take many players at the position early. Most of them went later.
While two running backs were selected in the first round, which is a rarity these days, there were only 8 total selected in the first four rounds. Compare that to the past five years, when there were 58 selected in the first four rounds -- an average of nearly 12 per year. The perceived depth of this year's class seemed to result in a lot of players going later -- more running backs were selected in the fifth through seventh rounds (10) than the first four (8).
So how many of these players might be significant fantasy backs? The recent history suggests relatively few.
First, there actually weren't any more running backs selected later than normal. In the last decade, there have been 103 running backs drafted in the fifth through seventh rounds -- about 10 per year, same as in 2023.
Of those 103, exactly 20 have had a top-40 fantasy season (PPR) at some point in their careers (so far). Just eight have had a top-20 season. So 1 in 10 have had a season where they were definitely a regular fantasy starter; 1 in 5 should definitely be rostered in typical leagues.
But the good news is it does happen, and the ones who have hit have worked out very well. Two guys are the gold standard, both from the 2017 draft class: Packers 5th-rounder Aaron Jones, and Seahawks 7th-rounder Chris Carson. Each of those guys had 3 or more top-2o fantasy seasons. Another fifth, Jordan Howard (2016), had two such seasons.
Table shows all the top-40 seasons from late-round running backs drafted in the last 10 years. Guys who did it last year (two rookies and two veterans) are in bold.
| TOP-40 FANTASY SEASONS (PPR), RBS DRAFTED 5TH-7TH, 2013- | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Dr | Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 5 | 2017 | 2019 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 1084 | 49 | 474 | 3 | 2 |
| 5 | 2017 | 2020 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 1104 | 47 | 355 | 2 | 5 |
| 5 | 2017 | 2022 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 1121 | 59 | 395 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | 2016 | 2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1313 | 29 | 298 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | 2017 | 2021 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 799 | 52 | 391 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | 2015 | 2016 | Jay Ajayi, Mia. | 1272 | 27 | 151 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | 2017 | 2019 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 1230 | 37 | 266 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | 2017 | 2018 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 1151 | 20 | 163 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | 2016 | 2017 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1122 | 23 | 125 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | 2013 | 2016 | Spencer Ware, K.C. | 921 | 33 | 447 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | 2016 | 2017 | Alex Collins, Balt. | 973 | 23 | 187 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | 2013 | 2014 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 660 | 46 | 395 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | 2013 | 2015 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 133 | 80 | 697 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | 2017 | 2020 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 681 | 37 | 287 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | 2016 | 2018 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 935 | 20 | 145 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | 2013 | 2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 973 | 26 | 141 | 1 | 21 |
| 5 | 2017 | 2018 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 728 | 26 | 206 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | 2019 | 2021 | Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 612 | 49 | 234 | 2 | 25 |
| 7 | 2019 | 2020 | Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 584 | 41 | 388 | 2 | 25 |
| 6 | 2013 | 2016 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 357 | 53 | 371 | 0 | 25 |
| 6 | 2021 | 2021 | Elijah Mitchell, S.F. | 963 | 19 | 137 | 0 | 26 |
| 6 | 2013 | 2017 | Theo Riddick, Det. | 286 | 53 | 444 | 1 | 26 |
| 6 | 2013 | 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 652 | 39 | 371 | 1 | 26 |
| 5 | 2014 | 2017 | Chris Thompson, Was. | 294 | 39 | 510 | 3 | 27 |
| 5 | 2014 | 2016 | Chris Thompson, Was. | 356 | 49 | 349 | 2 | 28 |
| 5 | 2022 | 2022 | Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 1035 | 16 | 139 | 0 | 30 |
| 6 | 2013 | 2022 | Latavius Murray, 2TM | 760 | 27 | 132 | 1 | 32 |
| 5 | 2015 | 2017 | Jay Ajayi, 2TM | 873 | 24 | 158 | 3 | 35 |
| 7 | 2022 | 2022 | Isiah Pacheco, K.C. | 830 | 13 | 130 | 4 | 37 |
| 5 | 2015 | 2015 | Karlos Williams, Buff. | 517 | 11 | 96 | 2 | 38 |
| 5 | 2013 | 2014 | Denard Robinson, Jac. | 582 | 23 | 124 | 2 | 38 |
| 6 | 2013 | 2017 | Rex Burkhead, N.E. | 264 | 30 | 254 | 1 | 39 |
| 5 | 2021 | 2021 | Kenneth Gainwell, Phil. | 291 | 33 | 253 | 2 | 40 |
| 5 | 2013 | 2016 | Mike Gillislee, Buff. | 577 | 9 | 50 | 1 | 40 |
A fifth (8) of those top-4o backs did it in their rookie seasons. That includes two last year (Tyler Allgeier and Isiah Pacheco) and two in 2021 (Elijah Mitchell and Kenneth Gainwell). So reasonable to think a couple of this year's late rounders will be viable in fantasy leagues.
Looking at this year's late-rounders, three that come to mind as being possible late-round, ultra-deep league fliers are Cincinnati's Chase Brown (5th), the Giants' Eric Gray (6th, pictured) and Washington's Chris Rodriguez (6th). In the first two cases, the veteran starters (Mixon, Barkley) have contract or off-field situations that may need to be worked out, and empty depth charts behind them. Rodriguez likely fell in the draft due to off-field stuff (a DUI arrest), while Washington's incumbents (Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson) didn't exactly put a death grip on the starting job last season.
I'll go with Gray as the most intriguing, simply because Barkley has said he won't play on the franchise tag, so the sides not working things out is possible. And even if they do come to terms, these guys tend to get hurt. Gray has a three-down skill set; at Oklahoma last year he ran for 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns and also caught 33 passes for 229 yards more. If I were drafting today, I'd give him a strong chance to be the No. 2 for the Giants.
--Andy Richardson