I’m not a big fan of Tampa Bay pass catchers. Tom Brady’s gone, so I think we’re going to see a huge decline in passing there – not only in efficiency but also in volume.
In Brady’s three years, they’ve passed the heck out of it. In the 2020-22 seasons, they passed the ball on almost 66 percent of their plays. That’s the highest figure since the Falcons were running a run-and-shoot system in the ‘90s.
Since the move to 32 teams in 2002, only 36 teams over a three-year period have passed the ball on at least 63 percent of their plays.
| PASSING HEAVY OFFENSES (2002-) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Run | Pass | Pct |
| 2020-22 | Tampa Bay | 22.8 | 43.5 | 65.6% |
| 2006-08 | Detroit | 20.4 | 38.8 | 65.5% |
| 2012-14 | Atlanta | 22.3 | 41.9 | 65.2% |
| 2010-12 | Detroit | 24.0 | 44.4 | 64.9% |
| 2008-10 | Arizona | 21.4 | 39.4 | 64.8% |
| 2018-20 | Atlanta | 23.4 | 43.0 | 64.8% |
| 2013-15 | Atlanta | 23.2 | 42.1 | 64.5% |
| 2015-17 | Detroit | 22.2 | 40.1 | 64.3% |
| 2016-18 | Green Bay | 22.8 | 40.9 | 64.2% |
| 2005-07 | Detroit | 21.5 | 38.6 | 64.2% |
| 2019-21 | Tampa Bay | 23.7 | 42.4 | 64.1% |
| 2011-13 | Detroit | 24.8 | 44.3 | 64.1% |
| 2014-16 | Detroit | 22.9 | 40.8 | 64.0% |
| 2012-14 | New Orleans | 24.3 | 43.2 | 64.0% |
| 2010-12 | Arizona | 22.1 | 39.2 | 63.9% |
| 2013-15 | Jacksonville | 22.8 | 40.2 | 63.8% |
| 2013-15 | Miami | 22.8 | 40.1 | 63.8% |
| 2014-16 | Jacksonville | 23.0 | 40.5 | 63.8% |
| 2010-12 | New Orleans | 24.6 | 43.1 | 63.7% |
| 2011-13 | Dallas | 22.9 | 40.1 | 63.6% |
| 2012-14 | Jacksonville | 22.8 | 39.7 | 63.5% |
| 2013-15 | New Orleans | 24.9 | 43.3 | 63.5% |
| 2011-13 | New Orleans | 24.8 | 43.1 | 63.5% |
| 2019-21 | Atlanta | 23.8 | 41.1 | 63.4% |
| 2017-19 | NY Giants | 23.1 | 40.0 | 63.4% |
| 2014-16 | New Orleans | 25.1 | 43.5 | 63.4% |
| 2018-20 | Pittsburgh | 23.2 | 40.1 | 63.4% |
| 2019-21 | Jacksonville | 22.8 | 39.3 | 63.3% |
| 2015-17 | Cleveland | 23.2 | 40.0 | 63.3% |
| 2002-04 | St. Louis | 23.6 | 40.7 | 63.3% |
| 2007-09 | Arizona | 23.1 | 39.4 | 63.1% |
| 2009-11 | Arizona | 22.4 | 38.2 | 63.1% |
| 2011-13 | Atlanta | 24.0 | 41.0 | 63.1% |
| 2018-20 | Tampa Bay | 24.3 | 41.5 | 63.0% |
| 2017-19 | Atlanta | 23.8 | 40.6 | 63.0% |
| 2009-11 | Detroit | 24.4 | 41.5 | 63.0% |
The Bucs are moving now to some combination of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask at quarterback. Those guys aren’t going to be averaging 43 pass attempts per week. So some of the big catch numbers we’ve seen from Chris Godwin, those aren’t happening. Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White (pictured) combined for 123 catches last year; they might not get 70 catches out of that position this year. White should play more with Fournette released. (I hope so anyway, since I drafted White last night.) But I don’t think we’ll see a big increase in his receiving production.
—Ian Allan